Getafe
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Mallorca. Getafe had 3.1 days of rest, Mallorca 3.3 and had to travel 550 km.
Away travel550 kmRest days3.1 · 3.3Matches / 14d2 · 2
Getafe39%
Draw30%
Mallorca31%
Getafe44%
Draw27%
Mallorca29%
Getafe37%
Draw30%
Mallorca32%
Getafe32%
Draw30%
Mallorca38%
Getafe41%
Draw28%
Mallorca31%
Over 2.5 40%
Both score 46%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Getafe)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainJuan Martinez Munuera
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.38
- Matches 45
Team strength
Getafe
Mallorca
50
L90 StrengthIn forecast
50
48
Current StrengthIn forecast
48
27
AttackIn forecast
50
59
DefenceIn forecast
59
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMallorca
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GetafeMallorca
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.23
1.03
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.49
0.79
xGVia Att/Def
1.07
1.00
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.57
+0.01
Goals minus xGContext
+0.16
54%
Scored inContext
77%
31%
Clean sheetsContext
14%
9.06
ShotsContext
10.20
2.97
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.15
29%
On target shareContext
40%
5.58
Shots in the boxContext
6.91
60%
Box shareContext
65%
9%
ConversionContext
12%
2.75
OffsidesContext
2.09
10.66
Shots allowedContext
14.14
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.62
2.50
BlocksContext
4.31
3.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.34
78%
Save rateContext
70%
39%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
279
PassesContext
381
193
Accurate passesContext
308
69%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.83
13.94
FoulsContext
11.43
13.91
Fouls sufferedContext
12.06
3.03
Yellow cardsContext
2.17
0.14
Red cardsContext
0.06
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
0.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
0.88
xGVia Att/Def
1.30
1.31
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.32
-0.08
Goals minus xGContext
+0.10
50%
Scored inContext
90%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
8.70
ShotsContext
11.80
3.38
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.80
31%
On target shareContext
41%
6.10
Shots in the boxContext
8.20
70%
Box shareContext
69%
9%
ConversionContext
12%
3.00
OffsidesContext
1.86
12.80
Shots allowedContext
12.70
4.78
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.40
2.80
BlocksContext
3.60
3.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.40
79%
Save rateContext
71%
36%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
246
PassesContext
406
161
Accurate passesContext
342
66%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.96
15.30
FoulsContext
12.70
10.70
Fouls sufferedContext
12.80
3.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Getafe
Rest3.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km764 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Mallorca
Rest3.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel550 km538 km in 14d
Schedule load14%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Getafe |
Mallorca |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 8 | Low · 14 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3.1La Liga 2025-2026, 10 May | 3.3La Liga 2025-2026, 10 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 550 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 764 km | 538 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.9 | 3.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Getafe
Confirmed XI
13David Soria(G)
21Juan Iglesias
24Z. Romero
22Domingos Duarte
2D. Dakonam
12A. Nyom
8M. Arambarri
46Damián Cáceres
5Luis Milla
10M. Satriano
6Mario Martín
Mallorca
Confirmed XI
1Leo Román(G)
29Luis Orejuela
24M. Valjent
27David López
23Pablo Maffeo
5Omar Mascarell
8Manu Morlanes
17J. Virgili
10Darder
15Zito Luvumbo
7V. Muriqi
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Getafe
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Mallorca
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Getafe+1.8 pp
- Draw-0.6 pp
- Mallorca-1.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Getafe · Home
1.24points per game · 17 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-3-8
- Scored
- 0.82
- Conceded
- 0.88
Mallorca · Away
0.53points per game · 17 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-12
- Scored
- 0.88
- Conceded
- 1.82
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Getafe | Mallorca |
|---|---|---|
| Oviedo | D 0–0 AW 2–0 H | D 0–0 A |
| Rayo Vallecano | L 0–2 HD 1–1 A | W 3–0 HL 1–2 A |
| Barcelona | L 0–2 HL 0–3 A | L 0–3 AL 0–3 H |
| Real Sociedad | W 1–0 AL 1–2 H | L 0–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Levante | L 0–1 AD 1–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Athletic Club | W 2–0 HW 1–0 A | W 3–2 HL 1–2 A |
| Espanyol | W 2–1 AL 0–1 H | W 2–1 HL 2–3 A |
| Atletico Madrid | L 0–1 AL 0–1 H | L 0–3 AD 1–1 H |
| Real Betis | W 2–0 HL 0–4 A | L 1–2 HL 0–3 A |
| Real Madrid | W 1–0 AL 0–1 H | W 2–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Sevilla | L 0–1 HW 2–1 A | W 4–1 HW 3–1 A |
| Villarreal | W 2–1 HL 0–2 A | D 1–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Alaves | W 2–0 AD 1–1 H | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Celta Vigo | D 0–0 HW 2–0 A | L 0–2 AD 1–1 H |
| Girona | D 1–1 AW 2–1 H | W 1–0 AL 1–2 H |
| Valencia | L 0–1 HL 0–3 A | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Elche | W 1–0 H | L 1–2 AW 3–1 H |
| Osasuna | L 1–2 A | D 2–2 AD 2–2 H |
| Points | 45 of 102 · 1.32 per game | 36 of 102 · 1.06 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
3 Getafe wins2 draws4 Mallorca wins
Goals per game0.78 – 0.89
Over 2.533%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets44% · 44%
- 9 Nov 2025Mallorca1–0Getafe
- 18 May 2025Mallorca1–2Getafe
- 21 Dec 2024Getafe0–1Mallorca
- 26 May 2024Getafe1–2Mallorca
- 28 Oct 2023Mallorca0–0Getafe
- 23 Apr 2023Mallorca3–1Getafe
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Getafe | Mallorca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 1.23 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.03 | 1.49 | |
| Match goals | 1.83 | 2.71 | 2.27 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 26% | 63% | 40% |
| Over 3.5 | 3% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 29% | 66% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 31% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 46% | 23% | |
| Games | 35 | 35 |
| Getafe | Mallorca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.70 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 1.50 | 2.50 | 2.27 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 10% | 60% | 40% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 10% | 70% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Getafe | Mallorca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.34 | 3.64 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.49 | 6.45 | |
| Match total | 8.83 | 10.09 | 9.60 |
| Over 8.5 | 49% 17/35 | 82% 27/33 | |
| Over 9.5 | 34% 12/35 | 55% 18/33 | |
| Over 10.5 | 26% 9/35 | 42% 14/33 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.26 | 2.29 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.37 | 2.23 | |
| Match total | 5.63 | 4.52 | 4.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 28/35 | 57% 20/35 | |
| Over 4.5 | 66% 23/35 | 46% 16/35 | |
| Getafe | Mallorca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 4.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 5.22 | |
| Match total | 10.50 | 9.44 | 9.60 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 4.30 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.90 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 7.20 | 4.50 | 4.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 10/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Juan Martinez Munuera Spain · 45 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.31league 4.29
Red cards0.20league 0.28
Cards 5+42%league 47%
Fouls26.2league 24.5
Penalties0.38league 0.36
Home wins49%league 48%
Getafe4 with this referee
Record3-0-1
Cards · opp.3.3 · 2.3
Pens for · against2 · 0
Reds1
- W5 Apr 26H · Athletic Club2–03
- W8 Feb 26A · Alaves2–05
- L24 May 25H · Celta Vigo1–24
- W28 Aug 23H · Alaves1–01
Mallorca3 with this referee
Record1-0-2
Cards · opp.3.7 · 1.3
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L11 Jan 26A · Rayo Vallecano1–25
- W11 May 24H · Las Palmas1–06
- L25 Nov 23A · Atletico Madrid0–10
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Getafe35 games · scored 28 · conceded 36
2
3
0-15
3
3
16-30
7
8
31-45
7
5
46-60
5
7
61-75
4
10
76-90
Mallorca35 games · scored 43 · conceded 52
4
6
0-15
5
9
16-30
9
13
31-45
3
3
46-60
11
7
61-75
11
14
76-90
Getafe10 games · scored 8 · conceded 7
1
1
0-15
2
16-30
4
2
31-45
46-60
3
61-75
1
1
76-90
Mallorca10 games · scored 14 · conceded 11
0-15
1
16-30
6
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
3
4
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
