Getafe
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Getafe were slight favourites.
Getafe were the stronger side on L90 Strength (48 vs 29). Getafe had 14.7 days of rest, Oviedo 13.8 and had to travel 382 km.
Away travel382 kmRest days14.7 · 13.8Matches / 14d0 · 1
Getafe53%
Draw27%
Oviedo20%
Getafe56%
Draw24%
Oviedo20%
Getafe53%
Draw27%
Oviedo20%
Getafe46%
Draw28%
Oviedo25%
Getafe56%
Draw24%
Oviedo20%
Over 2.5 44%
Both score 46%
Likeliest score 1–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Getafe)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainJose Luis Guzman Mansilla
- Cards per match 6.0
- Penalties per match 0.00
- Matches 1
Team strength
Getafe
Oviedo
48
L90 StrengthIn forecast
29
48
Current StrengthIn forecast
29
27
AttackIn forecast
23
59
DefenceIn forecast
39
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisOviedo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GetafeOviedo
1.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.33
1.33
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.67
1.12
xGVia Att/Def
0.62
0.58
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.99
+0.21
Goals minus xGContext
-0.29
67%
Scored inContext
33%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
9.67
ShotsContext
6.00
3.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.67
35%
On target shareContext
44%
5.33
Shots in the boxContext
3.00
54%
Box shareContext
51%
14%
ConversionContext
6%
3.00
OffsidesContext
1.67
9.33
Shots allowedContext
22.67
3.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
8.33
2.00
BlocksContext
5.67
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
7.33
80%
Save rateContext
88%
34%
PossessionIn forecast
37%
256
PassesContext
368
184
Accurate passesContext
306
72%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.88
15.33
FoulsContext
7.67
14.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.67
1.67
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.33
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.67
0.97
xGVia Att/Def
0.62
1.03
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.99
-0.27
Goals minus xGContext
-0.29
40%
Scored inContext
33%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
10.30
ShotsContext
6.00
2.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.67
28%
On target shareContext
44%
6.80
Shots in the boxContext
3.00
66%
Box shareContext
51%
7%
ConversionContext
6%
2.75
OffsidesContext
1.67
10.50
Shots allowedContext
22.67
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
8.33
1.80
BlocksContext
5.67
3.88
Goalkeeper savesContext
7.33
74%
Save rateContext
88%
35%
PossessionIn forecast
37%
259
PassesContext
368
177
Accurate passesContext
306
68%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.88
14.10
FoulsContext
7.67
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.67
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Getafe
Rest14.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Oviedo
Rest13.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel382 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Getafe |
Oviedo |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14.7La Liga 2025-2026, 29 Aug | 13.8La Liga 2025-2026, 30 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 382 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.3 | 8.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Getafe
Confirmed XI
13David Soria(G)
16Diego Rico
2D. Dakonam
22Domingos Duarte
3A. Abqar
17Kiko Femenía
8M. Arambarri
5Luis Milla
6Mario Martín
9Borja Mayoral
23Adrian Liso
Oviedo
Confirmed XI
13Aarón Escandell(G)
25Javi López
12Dani Calvo
4David Costas
22Nacho Vidal
5Alberto Reina
20L. Dendoncker
18J. Brekalo
21L. Ilić
10H. Hassan
19Álex Forés
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Getafe
Absences are shown before kick-off
Oviedo
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Getafe+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Oviedo+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Getafe · Home
No home games yet this season.
Oviedo · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Getafe | Oviedo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.33 | 0.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.33 | 1.67 | |
| Match goals | 2.67 | 2.00 | 2.42 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 33% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 0% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 67% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Getafe | Oviedo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.33 | 0.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.33 | 1.67 | |
| Match goals | 2.67 | 2.00 | 2.42 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 33% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 0% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 67% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Getafe | Oviedo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 1.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.67 | 9.67 | |
| Match total | 10.67 | 10.67 | 9.00 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 2/3 | 100% 3/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 2/3 | 100% 3/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 1/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.67 | 2.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.67 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 4.34 | 3.33 | 3.77 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 2/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 67% 2/3 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Getafe | Oviedo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.10 | 1.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.30 | 9.67 | |
| Match total | 9.40 | 10.67 | 9.00 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 100% 3/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 100% 3/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 2.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 4.70 | 3.33 | 3.77 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 0% 0/3 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jose Luis Guzman Mansilla Spain · 1 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards6.00league 3.50
Red cards0.00league 0.22
Cards 5+100%league 31%
Fouls23.0league 24.1
Penalties0.00league 0.31
Home wins0%league 44%
GetafeNo previous matches with this referee.
OviedoNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Getafe3 games · scored 4 · conceded 4
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Oviedo3 games · scored 1 · conceded 5
0-15
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
46-60
61-75
2
76-90
Getafe10 games · scored 7 · conceded 15
2
2
0-15
4
16-30
3
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
61-75
5
76-90
Oviedo3 games · scored 1 · conceded 5
0-15
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
46-60
61-75
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
