Getafe
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Getafe were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Rayo Vallecano. Getafe had 8 days of rest, Rayo Vallecano 7.1 and had to travel 13 km.
Away travel13 kmRest days8 · 7.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
Getafe40%
Draw29%
Rayo Vallecano32%
Getafe45%
Draw27%
Rayo Vallecano29%
Getafe39%
Draw29%
Rayo Vallecano32%
Getafe33%
Draw29%
Rayo Vallecano38%
Getafe42%
Draw27%
Rayo Vallecano31%
Over 2.5 44%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Getafe)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainMiguel Sesma Espinosa
- Cards per match 3.2
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 17
Team strength
Getafe
Rayo Vallecano
53
L90 StrengthIn forecast
51
48
Current StrengthIn forecast
58
27
AttackIn forecast
61
59
DefenceIn forecast
60
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRayo Vallecano
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GetafeRayo Vallecano
0.85
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.03
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.24
0.75
xGVia Att/Def
1.30
1.03
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.28
+0.10
Goals minus xGContext
-0.30
58%
Scored inContext
64%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
8.61
ShotsContext
13.52
2.93
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.48
30%
On target shareContext
33%
5.23
Shots in the boxContext
7.61
59%
Box shareContext
56%
10%
ConversionContext
7%
2.83
OffsidesContext
2.52
10.79
Shots allowedContext
11.79
3.94
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.06
2.60
BlocksContext
3.66
3.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.84
77%
Save rateContext
67%
39%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
276
PassesContext
413
190
Accurate passesContext
341
69%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.78
14.09
FoulsContext
12.52
13.82
Fouls sufferedContext
11.39
3.06
Yellow cardsContext
2.58
0.15
Red cardsContext
0.12
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
0.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
0.78
xGVia Att/Def
1.66
1.29
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.36
+0.22
Goals minus xGContext
-0.56
60%
Scored inContext
70%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
6.40
ShotsContext
15.80
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.90
38%
On target shareContext
31%
4.60
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
70%
Box shareContext
61%
16%
ConversionContext
7%
3.11
OffsidesContext
2.50
12.40
Shots allowedContext
12.40
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.56
2.90
BlocksContext
3.67
3.38
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
77%
Save rateContext
66%
32%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
227
PassesContext
344
143
Accurate passesContext
275
63%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.79
14.80
FoulsContext
13.20
10.60
Fouls sufferedContext
12.40
3.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.70
0.30
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Getafe
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km729 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Rayo Vallecano
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel13 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Getafe |
Rayo Vallecano |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8La Liga 2025-2026, 25 Apr | 7.1La Liga 2025-2026, 26 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 13 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 729 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 8.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Getafe
Confirmed XI
13David Soria(G)
26Davinchi
21Juan Iglesias
22Domingos Duarte
3A. Abqar
17Kiko Femenía
8M. Arambarri
5Luis Milla
23Adrian Liso
10M. Satriano
19L. Vázquez
Rayo Vallecano
Confirmed XI
13A. Batalla(G)
33Jozhua Vertrouwd
32N. Mendy
24F. Lejeune
20I. Balliu
15Gerard Gumbau
6P. Ciss
22A. Espino
10Sergio Camello
19Jorge de Frutos
9Alemão
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Getafe
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Rayo Vallecano
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Getafe+0.3 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Rayo Vallecano-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Getafe · Home
1.31points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-3-7
- Scored
- 0.88
- Conceded
- 0.81
Rayo Vallecano · Away
0.75points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-10
- Scored
- 0.75
- Conceded
- 1.69
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Getafe | Rayo Vallecano |
|---|---|---|
| Barcelona | L 0–2 HL 0–3 A | L 0–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Real Sociedad | W 1–0 AL 1–2 H | D 3–3 HW 1–0 A |
| Levante | L 0–1 AD 1–1 H | D 1–1 HW 3–0 A |
| Athletic Club | W 2–0 HW 1–0 A | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Espanyol | W 2–1 AL 0–1 H | W 1–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Atletico Madrid | L 0–1 AL 0–1 H | W 3–0 HL 2–3 A |
| Real Betis | W 2–0 HL 0–4 A | D 1–1 AD 0–0 H |
| Real Madrid | W 1–0 AL 0–1 H | L 1–2 AD 0–0 H |
| Sevilla | L 0–1 HW 2–1 A | D 1–1 AL 0–1 H |
| Villarreal | W 2–1 HL 0–2 A | L 0–4 A |
| Alaves | W 2–0 AD 1–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Celta Vigo | D 0–0 HW 2–0 A | L 0–3 AD 1–1 H |
| Girona | D 1–1 AW 2–1 H | W 3–1 A |
| Valencia | L 0–1 HL 0–3 A | D 1–1 H |
| Elche | W 1–0 H | W 1–0 HL 0–4 A |
| Mallorca | L 0–1 A | L 0–3 AW 2–1 H |
| Osasuna | L 1–2 A | L 1–3 HL 0–2 A |
| Oviedo | W 2–0 H | W 3–0 HD 0–0 A |
| Points | 43 of 96 · 1.34 per game | 38 of 96 · 1.19 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
0 Getafe wins6 draws3 Rayo Vallecano wins
Goals per game0.22 – 0.89
Over 2.511%
Both scored22%
Clean sheets44% · 78%
- 2 Jan 2026Rayo Vallecano1–1Getafe
- 2 May 2025Rayo Vallecano1–0Getafe
- 24 Aug 2024Getafe0–0Rayo Vallecano
- 13 Apr 2024Rayo Vallecano0–0Getafe
- 2 Jan 2024Getafe0–2Rayo Vallecano
- 12 Feb 2023Getafe1–1Rayo Vallecano
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Getafe | Rayo Vallecano | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.85 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.03 | 1.24 | |
| Match goals | 1.88 | 2.24 | 2.43 |
| Over 1.5 | 61% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 27% | 39% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 3% | 18% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 42% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 42% | 36% | |
| Games | 33 | 33 |
| Getafe | Rayo Vallecano | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.70 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 1.70 | 2.30 | 2.43 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 30% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Getafe | Rayo Vallecano | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.21 | 5.94 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.70 | 4.97 | |
| Match total | 8.91 | 10.91 | 9.56 |
| Over 8.5 | 48% 16/33 | 79% 26/33 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 11/33 | 64% 21/33 | |
| Over 10.5 | 27% 9/33 | 58% 19/33 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.30 | 2.85 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.24 | 2.36 | |
| Match total | 5.54 | 5.21 | 4.53 |
| Over 3.5 | 79% 26/33 | 79% 26/33 | |
| Over 4.5 | 64% 21/33 | 61% 20/33 | |
| Getafe | Rayo Vallecano | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.70 | 6.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.30 | 4.70 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 10.80 | 9.56 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 4.20 | 2.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 3.60 | |
| Match total | 6.60 | 6.50 | 4.53 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 100% 10/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Miguel Sesma Espinosa Spain · 17 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.24league 4.27
Red cards0.00league 0.27
Cards 5+29%league 47%
Fouls26.3league 24.5
Penalties0.24league 0.36
Home wins65%league 49%
Getafe2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.5
Pens for · against2 · 0
- W14 Feb 26H · Villarreal2–12
- L21 Dec 25A · Real Betis0–41
Rayo Vallecano2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L24 Jan 26H · Osasuna1–32
- W19 Oct 25A · Levante3–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Getafe33 games · scored 28 · conceded 34
2
3
0-15
3
3
16-30
7
7
31-45
7
5
46-60
5
6
61-75
4
10
76-90
Rayo Vallecano33 games · scored 33 · conceded 41
2
5
0-15
4
6
16-30
10
6
31-45
4
6
46-60
5
7
61-75
8
11
76-90
Getafe10 games · scored 10 · conceded 7
1
1
0-15
2
16-30
5
1
31-45
1
46-60
3
61-75
1
2
76-90
Rayo Vallecano10 games · scored 11 · conceded 12
1
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
4
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
4
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
