GIL Vicente
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
GIL Vicente were slight favourites.
GIL Vicente were the stronger side on L90 Strength (33 vs 26). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for GIL Vicente. GIL Vicente had 7 days of rest, Academico Viseu 8.1 and had to travel 114 km.
Away travel114 kmRest days7 · 8.1Matches / 14d2 · 1
GIL Vicente51%
Draw25%
Academico Viseu24%
GIL Vicente49%
Draw25%
Academico Viseu26%
GIL Vicente51%
Draw25%
Academico Viseu24%
GIL Vicente43%
Draw26%
Academico Viseu30%
GIL Vicente51%
Draw25%
Academico Viseu24%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Barcelos)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalPedro Ramalho
- Cards per match 6.1
- Penalties per match 0.53
- Matches 19
Team strength
GIL Vicente
Academico Viseu
33
L90 StrengthIn forecast
26
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
32
32
AttackIn forecast
28
50
DefenceIn forecast
31
62
Form indexContext
22
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAcademico Viseu
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GIL VicenteAcademico Viseu
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
0.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.23
xGVia Att/Def
1.07
0.39
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.87
-0.23
Goals minus xGContext
-0.07
67%
Scored inContext
50%
100%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
9.33
ShotsContext
10.00
3.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.25
36%
On target shareContext
33%
5.67
Shots in the boxContext
6.33
60%
Box shareContext
58%
11%
ConversionContext
10%
1.33
OffsidesContext
1.33
8.67
Shots allowedContext
13.00
1.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.25
1.50
BlocksContext
3.00
1.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
100%
Save rateContext
57%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
463
PassesContext
408
403
Accurate passesContext
342
87%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.95
Team ratingContext
6.76
14.67
FoulsContext
13.25
10.33
Fouls sufferedContext
16.00
2.33
Yellow cardsContext
2.75
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.21
xGVia Att/Def
1.07
0.90
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.87
-0.11
Goals minus xGContext
-0.07
60%
Scored inContext
50%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
11.60
ShotsContext
10.00
3.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.25
34%
On target shareContext
33%
6.80
Shots in the boxContext
6.33
58%
Box shareContext
58%
10%
ConversionContext
10%
1.30
OffsidesContext
1.33
10.60
Shots allowedContext
13.00
2.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.25
3.56
BlocksContext
3.00
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
74%
Save rateContext
57%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
406
PassesContext
408
342
Accurate passesContext
342
84%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.76
12.10
FoulsContext
13.25
13.20
Fouls sufferedContext
16.00
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.75
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
GIL Vicente
WWD
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km32 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 62 · 7 pts vs 5.6 for an average club · +2.2 vs expected
Academico Viseu
DLDL
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel114 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 22 · 2 pts vs 5.6 for an average club · -1.9 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| GIL Vicente |
Academico Viseu |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 30 Aug | 8.1Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 29 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 114 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 32 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
GIL Vicente
Confirmed XI
30Lucão(G)
26Weverson
39Jonathan Buatu
4M. Elimbi
47Ricardo Esgaio
86Diogo Prioste
6Zé Carlos
11Joelson Fernandes
20Gil Martins
77Murilo
23Héctor Hernández
Academico Viseu
Confirmed XI
98Ewerton(G)
57G. Costa
2N. Michelis
41A. Correia
75Robinho
7Luís Silva
10Á. Zamora
8C. Kahraman
14S. Messeguem
31João Guilherme
33André Clóvis
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences GIL Vicente
Absences are shown before kick-off
Academico Viseu
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- GIL Vicente+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Academico Viseu+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
GIL Vicente · Home
3.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 0.00
Academico Viseu · Away
1.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| GIL Vicente | Academico Viseu | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 1.00 | 3.00 | 2.62 |
| Over 1.5 | 33% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 75% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 50% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 100% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 50% | |
| Games | 3 | 4 |
| GIL Vicente | Academico Viseu | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.10 | 3.00 | 2.62 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 75% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 4 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| GIL Vicente | Academico Viseu | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.67 | 3.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 4.25 | |
| Match total | 7.67 | 7.25 | 8.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 1/3 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/3 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/3 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.33 | 2.75 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.33 | 1.75 | |
| Match total | 4.66 | 4.50 | 4.05 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 2/3 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 67% 2/3 | 50% 2/4 | |
| GIL Vicente | Academico Viseu | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 3.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.10 | 4.25 | |
| Match total | 8.60 | 7.25 | 8.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 2.75 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 1.75 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 4.50 | 4.05 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 2/4 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Pedro Ramalho Portugal · 19 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.79league 3.88
Red cards0.32league 0.15
Cards 5+74%league 35%
Fouls27.6league 25.2
Penalties0.53league 0.30
Home wins32%league 43%
GIL Vicente3 with this referee
Record1-2-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.7
Pens for · against1 · 1
- D9 Nov 25A · AVS1–15
- D24 Aug 25A · Famalicao0–01
- W7 Dec 24H · Nacional2–13
Academico ViseuNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
GIL Vicente3 games · scored 3 · conceded 0
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
Academico Viseu4 games · scored 4 · conceded 8
3
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
76-90
GIL Vicente10 games · scored 11 · conceded 10
1
2
0-15
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
46-60
2
3
61-75
3
3
76-90
Academico Viseu4 games · scored 4 · conceded 8
3
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
