GIL Vicente
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
GIL Vicente were slight favourites.
GIL Vicente were the stronger side on L90 Strength (30 vs 15). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for GIL Vicente. GIL Vicente had 5.9 days of rest, Maritimo 4.8 and had to travel 1,227 km.
Away travel1,227 kmRest days5.9 · 4.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
GIL Vicente58%
Draw23%
Maritimo19%
GIL Vicente58%
Draw23%
Maritimo20%
GIL Vicente58%
Draw23%
Maritimo19%
GIL Vicente51%
Draw25%
Maritimo24%
GIL Vicente58%
Draw23%
Maritimo19%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 1–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Barcelos)
No weather data yet
RefereeBruno Pires Costa
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.32
- Matches 22
Team strength
GIL Vicente
Maritimo
30
L90 StrengthIn forecast
15
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
16
32
AttackIn forecast
15
50
DefenceIn forecast
20
39
Form indexContext
24
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMaritimo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GIL VicenteMaritimo
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.17
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.83
1.23
xGVia Att/Def
1.25
0.39
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.22
-0.43
Goals minus xGContext
-0.08
60%
Scored inContext
83%
60%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
13.20
ShotsContext
10.50
3.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.17
29%
On target shareContext
30%
9.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.50
66%
Box shareContext
70%
6%
ConversionContext
11%
1.25
OffsidesContext
1.00
9.80
Shots allowedContext
12.50
2.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.50
2.00
BlocksContext
3.00
1.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
70%
Save rateContext
64%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
456
PassesContext
382
394
Accurate passesContext
306
86%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.61
14.60
FoulsContext
15.50
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
12.67
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.83
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.07
xGVia Att/Def
1.25
0.97
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.22
-0.37
Goals minus xGContext
-0.05
50%
Scored inContext
90%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.40
ShotsContext
13.40
3.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.80
29%
On target shareContext
28%
7.90
Shots in the boxContext
9.78
62%
Box shareContext
67%
6%
ConversionContext
9%
1.22
OffsidesContext
1.40
11.10
Shots allowedContext
12.50
2.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
3.22
BlocksContext
3.22
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
67%
Save rateContext
63%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
413
PassesContext
377
349
Accurate passesContext
305
85%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.70
Team ratingContext
6.72
13.30
FoulsContext
16.20
12.60
Fouls sufferedContext
12.40
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
GIL Vicente
WWDLL
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km631 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 39 · 7 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · +0.1 vs expected
Maritimo
WDLLL
Rest4.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel1,227 km2,460 km in 14d
Schedule load17%Low
Form 24 · 4 pts vs 7.3 for an average club · -0.5 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| GIL Vicente |
Maritimo |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 17 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.9Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 13 Sep | 4.8Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 14 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,227 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 631 km | 2,460 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 20.1 | 21.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
GIL Vicente
Confirmed XI
30Lucão(G)
45David Moreira
39Jonathan Buatu
4M. Elimbi
47Ricardo Esgaio
86Diogo Prioste
12A. Lausen
20Gil Martins
10Santi García
77Murilo
23Héctor Hernández
Maritimo
Confirmed XI
30Fran Vieites(G)
23Paulo Henrique
22G. Szalai
44Romain Correia
2Igor Julião
18V. Danilović
6Rodrigo Andrade
10Martín Tejón
14R. Guzzo
8M. Dominguez
17Adrián Butzke
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences GIL Vicente
Absences are shown before kick-off
Maritimo
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- GIL Vicente+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Maritimo+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
GIL Vicente · Home
2.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.33
Maritimo · Away
1.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 4 this season
| Opponent | GIL Vicente | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| Benfica | L 1–3 A | L 0–3 H |
| Academico Viseu | L 0–1 H | D 2–2 H |
| Famalicao | D 0–0 A | W 2–1 A |
| Casa Pia | W 2–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Points | 4 of 12 · 1.00 per game | 7 of 12 · 1.75 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
2 GIL Vicente wins0 draws0 Maritimo wins
Goals per game2.00 – 0.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 5 Mar 2023GIL Vicente2–0Maritimo
- 11 Sep 2022Maritimo1–2GIL Vicente
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| GIL Vicente | Maritimo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 1.17 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 1.83 | |
| Match goals | 1.60 | 3.00 | 2.69 |
| Over 1.5 | 40% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 83% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 67% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 17% | |
| Games | 5 | 6 |
| GIL Vicente | Maritimo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.70 | 1.17 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.83 | |
| Match goals | 1.90 | 3.00 | 2.69 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 83% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 67% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 17% | |
| Games | 10 | 6 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| GIL Vicente | Maritimo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 3.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.25 | 4.33 | |
| Match total | 7.75 | 7.33 | 8.83 |
| Over 8.5 | 25% 1/4 | 17% 1/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/4 | 0% 0/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/4 | 0% 0/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.83 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 4.33 | 4.27 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 3/5 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 3/5 | 33% 2/6 | |
| GIL Vicente | Maritimo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.89 | 4.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 4.60 | |
| Match total | 8.89 | 8.80 | 8.83 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 3/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 22% 2/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 5.50 | 4.27 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Bruno Pires Costa 22 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.86league 4.04
Red cards0.18league 0.19
Cards 5+23%league 42%
Fouls29.0league 25.1
Penalties0.32league 0.36
Home wins41%league 42%
GIL Vicente4 with this referee
Record2-0-2
Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.3
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- L22 Feb 25A · Casa Pia0–12
- W14 Dec 24A · Farense1–03
- W16 Aug 24H · AVS4–21
- L1 Sep 23A · Vizela0–13
MaritimoNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
GIL Vicente5 games · scored 4 · conceded 4
1
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
61-75
1
2
76-90
Maritimo6 games · scored 7 · conceded 11
2
0-15
2
3
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
GIL Vicente10 games · scored 7 · conceded 12
1
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
46-60
2
3
61-75
1
4
76-90
Maritimo10 games · scored 12 · conceded 18
1
3
0-15
2
3
16-30
1
4
31-45
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
5
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
