Girona
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Alaves were the stronger side on L90 Strength (49 vs 36). Girona had 7.7 days of rest, Alaves 5.9 and had to travel 461 km.
Away travel461 kmRest days7.7 · 5.9Matches / 14d1 · 2
Girona36%
Draw28%
Alaves36%
Girona36%
Draw27%
Alaves37%
Girona35%
Draw28%
Alaves37%
Girona29%
Draw28%
Alaves43%
Girona36%
Draw27%
Alaves36%
Over 2.5 46%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Girona)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainAdrian Cordero Vega
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.56
- Matches 9
Team strength
Girona
Alaves
36
L90 StrengthIn forecast
49
45
Current StrengthIn forecast
48
49
AttackIn forecast
48
64
DefenceIn forecast
55
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAlaves
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GironaAlaves
0.91
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
2.18
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.91
0.93
xGVia Att/Def
1.01
1.82
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.86
-0.02
Goals minus xGContext
-0.01
64%
Scored inContext
64%
9%
Clean sheetsContext
18%
8.73
ShotsContext
11.45
3.73
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.45
43%
On target shareContext
30%
5.55
Shots in the boxContext
7.60
63%
Box shareContext
62%
10%
ConversionContext
9%
2.71
OffsidesContext
2.63
16.55
Shots allowedContext
10.82
5.36
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.27
3.64
BlocksContext
3.90
3.45
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.60
64%
Save rateContext
74%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
405
PassesContext
423
338
Accurate passesContext
340
84%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.66
Team ratingContext
6.81
10.45
FoulsContext
15.27
14.91
Fouls sufferedContext
14.09
1.91
Yellow cardsContext
2.18
0.18
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
2.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
0.97
xGVia Att/Def
0.99
1.69
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.88
-0.07
Goals minus xGContext
-0.09
60%
Scored inContext
60%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
8.90
ShotsContext
11.10
3.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.40
44%
On target shareContext
31%
5.80
Shots in the boxContext
7.33
65%
Box shareContext
61%
10%
ConversionContext
8%
3.00
OffsidesContext
2.86
16.80
Shots allowedContext
11.20
5.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.30
3.90
BlocksContext
4.00
3.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.67
66%
Save rateContext
75%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
407
PassesContext
419
342
Accurate passesContext
336
84%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.68
Team ratingContext
6.79
10.80
FoulsContext
15.40
14.70
Fouls sufferedContext
14.20
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Girona
Rest7.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,160 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Alaves
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel461 km568 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Girona |
Alaves |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.7La Liga 2025-2026, 31 Oct | 5.9La Liga 2025-2026, 2 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 461 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,160 km | 568 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 15.1 | 14 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Girona
Confirmed XI
13P. Gazzaniga(G)
24Álex Moreno
17D. Blind
12Vitor Reis
4Arnau Martínez
21Bryan Gil
20A. Witsel
23Iván Martín
15V. Tsyhankov
18A. Ounahi
19V. Vanat
Alaves
Confirmed XI
1Antonio Sivera(G)
3Youssef Lekhedim
24Víctor Parada
14F. Tenaglia
17Jonny
10Carles Aleñá
4Denis Suárez
8Antonio Blanco
20Calebe
11Toni Martínez
9M. Díaz
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Girona
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Alaves
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Girona+0.7 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Alaves-0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Girona · Home
0.83points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-3
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.17
Alaves · Away
0.80points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-3
- Scored
- 0.40
- Conceded
- 0.80
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 7 this season
| Opponent | Girona | Alaves |
|---|---|---|
| Getafe | L 1–2 A | D 1–1 A |
| Valencia | W 2–1 H | D 0–0 H |
| Espanyol | D 0–0 H | W 2–1 H |
| Athletic Club | D 1–1 A | W 1–0 A |
| Levante | L 0–4 H | W 2–1 H |
| Sevilla | L 0–2 H | L 1–2 H |
| Rayo Vallecano | L 1–3 H | L 0–1 A |
| Points | 5 of 21 · 0.71 per game | 11 of 21 · 1.57 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
2 Girona wins1 draws1 Alaves wins
Goals per game1.50 – 0.75
Over 2.550%
Both scored25%
Clean sheets50% · 25%
- 5 Apr 2025Girona0–1Alaves
- 11 Jan 2025Alaves0–1Girona
- 10 May 2024Alaves2–2Girona
- 18 Dec 2023Girona3–0Alaves
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Girona | Alaves | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.91 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.18 | 0.91 | |
| Match goals | 3.09 | 1.91 | 2.51 |
| Over 1.5 | 91% | 55% | |
| Over 2.5 | 64% | 36% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 36% | 9% | |
| Both teams scored | 64% | 55% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 9% | 18% | |
| Failed to score | 36% | 36% | |
| Games | 11 | 11 |
| Girona | Alaves | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.10 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 1.80 | 2.51 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 30% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Girona | Alaves | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.90 | 5.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.10 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 10.20 | 9.66 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.27 | 2.27 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.09 | 2.55 | |
| Match total | 3.36 | 4.82 | 4.25 |
| Over 3.5 | 27% 3/11 | 82% 9/11 | |
| Over 4.5 | 27% 3/11 | 64% 7/11 | |
| Girona | Alaves | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.22 | 5.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.33 | 4.89 | |
| Match total | 11.55 | 10.11 | 9.66 |
| Over 8.5 | 89% 8/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 6/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.10 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 5.20 | 4.25 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Adrian Cordero Vega Spain · 9 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.00league 3.99
Red cards0.33league 0.26
Cards 5+44%league 43%
Fouls26.7league 24.7
Penalties0.56league 0.36
Home wins78%league 48%
Girona1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- D14 Sep 25A · Celta Vigo1–13
Alaves1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L27 Sep 25A · Mallorca0–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Girona11 games · scored 10 · conceded 24
2
2
0-15
2
6
16-30
3
31-45
1
5
46-60
2
3
61-75
3
5
76-90
Alaves11 games · scored 11 · conceded 10
2
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
4
2
76-90
Girona10 games · scored 9 · conceded 21
2
2
0-15
2
4
16-30
2
31-45
5
46-60
2
3
61-75
3
5
76-90
Alaves10 games · scored 9 · conceded 9
2
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
3
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
