Girona vs Barcelona – 16 Feb 2026

La Liga Gameweek 24 Mon, Feb 16 · 20:00 Estadi Municipal de Montilivi, Girona

Girona 15th · 26 pts · 23 played WWDLD

2–1Full time

Barcelona 2nd · 58 pts · 23 played WLWWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Barcelona were clear favourites.

Barcelona were the stronger side on L90 Strength (91 vs 44). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Barcelona. Girona had 8.2 days of rest, Barcelona 9.2 and had to travel 86 km.

Away travel86 kmRest days8.2 · 9.2Matches / 14d1 · 1

Girona11%

Draw18%

Barcelona71%

Expected goals 0.80 – 2.34

Girona13%

Draw20%

Barcelona67%

Expected goals 0.83 – 2.15

Girona11%

Draw18%

Barcelona71%

Expected goals 0.80 – 2.33

Girona7%

Draw15%

Barcelona78%

Expected goals 0.71 – 2.62

Girona11%

Draw18%

Barcelona70%

Expected goals 0.81 – 2.31

Over 2.5 61% Both score 50% Likeliest score 0–2

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Girona)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainCesar Soto Grado

Cards per match 4.9
Penalties per match 0.27
Matches 37

Team strength

Girona

Barcelona

44 L90 StrengthIn forecast 91

45 Current StrengthIn forecast 93

49 AttackIn forecast 97

64 DefenceIn forecast 92

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Girona

Attack—

Defense risk—

Barcelona

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Girona

Barcelona

0.96 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.74

1.61 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.05 xGVia Att/Def 2.50

1.55 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.22

-0.09 Goals minus xGContext +0.24

70% Scored inContext 100%

17% Clean sheetsContext 39%

9.48 ShotsContext 20.04

3.57 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.30

38% On target shareContext 36%

6.09 Shots in the boxContext 12.74

64% Box shareContext 64%

10% ConversionContext 14%

2.53 OffsidesContext 2.53

14.57 Shots allowedContext 9.22

4.64 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.78

3.35 BlocksContext 2.60

3.18 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.70

69% Save rateContext 71%

50% PossessionIn forecast 69%

443 PassesContext 634

377 Accurate passesContext 566

85% Pass accuracyContext 89%

6.76 Team ratingContext 7.10

11.26 FoulsContext 9.78

14.52 Fouls sufferedContext 11.87

2.26 Yellow cardsContext 1.22

0.13 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 23 and 23 games

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.60

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.70

1.15 xGVia Att/Def 2.71

1.27 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.93

-0.15 Goals minus xGContext -0.11

70% Scored inContext 100%

20% Clean sheetsContext 50%

10.00 ShotsContext 21.40

3.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 8.00

35% On target shareContext 37%

6.60 Shots in the boxContext 13.90

67% Box shareContext 66%

10% ConversionContext 12%

2.63 OffsidesContext 2.00

11.60 Shots allowedContext 8.70

3.44 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.60

3.10 BlocksContext 2.44

2.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.11

68% Save rateContext 80%

52% PossessionIn forecast 72%

480 PassesContext 663

414 Accurate passesContext 592

86% Pass accuracyContext 89%

6.81 Team ratingContext 7.15

12.00 FoulsContext 9.10

14.50 Fouls sufferedContext 11.00

2.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.00

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Girona

Rest8.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km1,819 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Barcelona

Rest9.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel86 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Girona	Barcelona
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8.2La Liga 2025-2026, 8 Feb	9.2La Liga 2025-2026, 7 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	86 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,819 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7	5.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Girona Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

13P. Gazzaniga(G)

4Arnau Martínez 17D. Blind 12Vitor Reis 2Hugo Rincón

20A. Witsel 23Iván Martín

21Bryan Gil 11T. Lemar 15V. Tsyhankov

19V. Vanat

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Barcelona Confirmed XI

4-3-3

13Joan García(G)

18Gerard Martín 24Eric García 5Pau Cubarsí 23J. Koundé

20Dani Olmo 21F. de Jong 16Fermín López

11Raphinha 7Ferran Torres 10Lamine Yamal

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Girona Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.08 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Barcelona Scores -0.07 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Girona-0.1 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Barcelona+0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Girona · Home 1.18points per game · 11 home games

W-D-L: 3-4-4
Scored: 0.91
Conceded: 1.64

Barcelona · Away 2.08points per game · 12 away games

W-D-L: 8-1-3
Scored: 2.42
Conceded: 1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Girona	Barcelona
Sevilla	D 1–1 AL 0–2 H	L 1–4 A
Oviedo	L 0–1 AD 3–3 H	W 3–0 HW 3–1 A
Getafe	D 1–1 HL 1–2 A	W 3–0 H
Espanyol	W 2–0 AD 0–0 H	W 2–0 A
Osasuna	W 1–0 H	W 2–0 H
Mallorca	W 2–1 A	W 3–0 HW 3–0 A
Atletico Madrid	L 0–3 H	W 3–1 H
Real Sociedad	W 2–1 A	L 1–2 AW 2–1 H
Elche	L 0–3 A	W 3–1 AW 3–1 H
Real Madrid	D 1–1 H	L 1–2 A
Real Betis	D 1–1 A	W 5–3 A
Alaves	W 1–0 H	W 3–1 H
Valencia	W 2–1 H	W 6–0 H
Athletic Club	D 1–1 A	W 4–0 H
Levante	L 0–4 H	W 3–2 A
Celta Vigo	D 1–1 A	W 4–2 A
Villarreal	L 0–5 A	W 2–0 A
Rayo Vallecano	L 1–3 H	D 1–1 A
Points	26 of 66 · 1.18 per game	55 of 66 · 2.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

2 Girona wins1 draws4 Barcelona wins

Goals per game1.57 – 2.14 Over 2.571% Both scored71% Clean sheets14% · 29%

18 Oct 2025Barcelona2–1Girona
30 Mar 2025Barcelona4–1Girona
15 Sep 2024Girona1–4Barcelona
4 May 2024Girona4–2Barcelona
10 Dec 2023Barcelona2–4Girona
10 Apr 2023Barcelona0–0Girona

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Girona	Barcelona	Forecast
Scored per game	0.96	2.74
Conceded per game	1.61	1.00
Match goals	2.57	3.74	3.14
Over 1.5	83%	100%
Over 2.5	48%	83%	61%
Over 3.5	17%	48%
Both teams scored	57%	61%	50%
Clean sheets	17%	39%
Failed to score	30%	0%
Games	23	23

	Girona	Barcelona	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	2.70
Conceded per game	1.20	0.80
Match goals	2.20	3.50	3.14
Over 1.5	80%	100%
Over 2.5	40%	70%	61%
Over 3.5	0%	40%
Both teams scored	50%	50%	50%
Clean sheets	20%	50%
Failed to score	30%	0%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Girona	Barcelona	League
Corners
Corners won	4.24	7.23
Corners conceded	4.67	4.41
Match total	8.91	11.64	9.56
Over 8.5	48% 10/21	91% 20/22
Over 9.5	33% 7/21	68% 15/22
Over 10.5	33% 7/21	64% 14/22
Cards
Cards	2.48	1.30
Opponent cards	1.74	2.61
Match total	4.22	3.91	4.42
Over 3.5	35% 8/23	48% 11/23
Over 4.5	35% 8/23	39% 9/23

	Girona	Barcelona	League
Corners
Corners won	3.40	8.78
Corners conceded	3.60	3.22
Match total	7.00	12.00	9.56
Over 8.5	20% 2/10	100% 9/9
Over 9.5	10% 1/10	89% 8/9
Over 10.5	10% 1/10	67% 6/9
Cards
Cards	2.80	1.00
Opponent cards	2.10	2.00
Match total	4.90	3.00	4.42
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Cesar Soto Grado Spain · 37 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.68league 4.16

Red cards0.24league 0.27

Cards 5+57%league 46%

Fouls24.0league 24.6

Penalties0.27league 0.37

Home wins49%league 47%

Girona

No previous matches with this referee.

Barcelona5 with this referee

Record1-2-2 Cards · opp.2.2 · 4.2 Pens for · against0 · 2 Reds2

L26 Oct 25A · Real Madrid1–23
W15 May 25A · Espanyol2–02
L21 Apr 24A · Real Madrid2–32
D8 Oct 23A · Granada CF2–21
D13 Aug 23A · Getafe0–03

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.