Girona
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Girona were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Mallorca. Girona had 6.1 days of rest, Mallorca 6.3 and had to travel 269 km.
Away travel269 kmRest days6.1 · 6.3Matches / 14d2 · 2
Girona42%
Draw28%
Mallorca30%
Girona44%
Draw27%
Mallorca29%
Girona43%
Draw28%
Mallorca30%
Girona35%
Draw28%
Mallorca37%
Girona43%
Draw27%
Mallorca31%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Girona)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainFrancisco Hernandez Maeso
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.37
- Matches 35
Team strength
Girona
Mallorca
48
L90 StrengthIn forecast
47
45
Current StrengthIn forecast
48
49
AttackIn forecast
50
64
DefenceIn forecast
59
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMallorca
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GironaMallorca
1.09
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.24
1.52
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.55
1.13
xGVia Att/Def
1.05
1.52
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.59
-0.04
Goals minus xGContext
+0.19
76%
Scored inContext
76%
18%
Clean sheetsContext
12%
9.97
ShotsContext
10.06
3.84
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.06
37%
On target shareContext
39%
6.48
Shots in the boxContext
6.84
65%
Box shareContext
65%
11%
ConversionContext
12%
2.56
OffsidesContext
2.05
14.73
Shots allowedContext
14.39
5.03
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.72
3.67
BlocksContext
4.45
3.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.40
73%
Save rateContext
70%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
462
PassesContext
379
397
Accurate passesContext
306
86%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.81
10.55
FoulsContext
10.91
14.21
Fouls sufferedContext
12.15
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.18
0.12
Red cardsContext
0.06
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.34
xGVia Att/Def
1.13
1.47
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.52
+0.06
Goals minus xGContext
+0.17
90%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
11.10
ShotsContext
10.70
4.56
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.44
37%
On target shareContext
37%
7.40
Shots in the boxContext
8.22
66%
Box shareContext
68%
13%
ConversionContext
12%
2.63
OffsidesContext
1.57
15.10
Shots allowedContext
14.30
6.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
4.40
BlocksContext
4.20
5.13
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.70
80%
Save rateContext
64%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
506
PassesContext
425
441
Accurate passesContext
357
87%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.88
8.90
FoulsContext
11.20
13.50
Fouls sufferedContext
12.80
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Girona
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km776 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Mallorca
Rest6.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel269 km1,151 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Girona |
Mallorca |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1La Liga 2025-2026, 25 Apr | 6.3La Liga 2025-2026, 25 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 269 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 776 km | 1,151 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 10 | 8.7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Girona
Confirmed XI
13P. Gazzaniga(G)
17D. Blind
12Vitor Reis
16Alejandro Francés
4Arnau Martínez
20A. Witsel
8Fran Beltrán
3Joel Roca
18A. Ounahi
15V. Tsyhankov
14C. Echeverri
Mallorca
Confirmed XI
1Leo Román(G)
22J. Mojica
5Omar Mascarell
24M. Valjent
23Pablo Maffeo
8Manu Morlanes
10Darder
12Samú Costa
20Pablo Torre
30J. Kalumba
7V. Muriqi
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Girona
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Mallorca
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Girona-0.2 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Mallorca+0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Girona · Home
1.38points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-4-6
- Scored
- 1.19
- Conceded
- 1.50
Mallorca · Away
0.38points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-12
- Scored
- 0.88
- Conceded
- 1.94
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Girona | Mallorca |
|---|---|---|
| Valencia | L 1–2 AW 2–1 H | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Real Betis | L 2–3 HD 1–1 A | L 1–2 HL 0–3 A |
| Real Madrid | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H | W 2–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Villarreal | W 1–0 HL 0–5 A | L 1–2 A |
| Osasuna | L 0–1 AW 1–0 H | D 2–2 AD 2–2 H |
| Athletic Club | W 3–0 HD 1–1 A | W 3–2 HL 1–2 A |
| Levante | D 1–1 AL 0–4 H | D 1–1 H |
| Celta Vigo | L 1–2 HD 1–1 A | L 0–2 AD 1–1 H |
| Alaves | D 2–2 AW 1–0 H | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Barcelona | W 2–1 HL 1–2 A | L 0–3 AL 0–3 H |
| Sevilla | D 1–1 AL 0–2 H | W 4–1 HW 3–1 A |
| Oviedo | L 0–1 AD 3–3 H | D 0–0 A |
| Getafe | D 1–1 HL 1–2 A | W 1–0 H |
| Espanyol | W 2–0 AD 0–0 H | W 2–1 HL 2–3 A |
| Atletico Madrid | L 0–3 H | L 0–3 AD 1–1 H |
| Real Sociedad | W 2–1 A | L 0–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Elche | L 0–3 A | L 1–2 AW 3–1 H |
| Rayo Vallecano | L 1–3 H | W 3–0 HL 1–2 A |
| Points | 35 of 96 · 1.09 per game | 35 of 96 · 1.09 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
4 Girona wins1 draws2 Mallorca wins
Goals per game1.71 – 1.29
Over 2.557%
Both scored71%
Clean sheets14% · 14%
- 4 Jan 2026Mallorca1–2Girona
- 5 May 2025Girona1–0Mallorca
- 14 Dec 2024Mallorca2–1Girona
- 3 Mar 2024Mallorca1–0Girona
- 23 Sep 2023Girona5–3Mallorca
- 4 May 2023Girona2–1Mallorca
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Girona | Mallorca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.09 | 1.24 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.52 | 1.55 | |
| Match goals | 2.61 | 2.79 | 2.58 |
| Over 1.5 | 82% | 85% | |
| Over 2.5 | 52% | 67% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 18% | 21% | |
| Both teams scored | 61% | 67% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 18% | 12% | |
| Failed to score | 24% | 24% | |
| Games | 33 | 33 |
| Girona | Mallorca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 2.70 | 2.58 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 70% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Girona | Mallorca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.16 | 3.65 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.94 | 6.58 | |
| Match total | 9.10 | 10.23 | 9.59 |
| Over 8.5 | 52% 16/31 | 84% 26/31 | |
| Over 9.5 | 42% 13/31 | 58% 18/31 | |
| Over 10.5 | 39% 12/31 | 45% 14/31 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.18 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.85 | 2.27 | |
| Match total | 4.03 | 4.57 | 4.54 |
| Over 3.5 | 42% 14/33 | 58% 19/33 | |
| Over 4.5 | 27% 9/33 | 45% 15/33 | |
| Girona | Mallorca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 4.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.50 | 5.33 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 9.77 | 9.59 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 5.20 | 4.54 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Francisco Hernandez Maeso Spain · 35 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.94league 4.27
Red cards0.11league 0.28
Cards 5+40%league 47%
Fouls23.8league 24.5
Penalties0.37league 0.37
Home wins46%league 49%
Girona5 with this referee
Record1-3-1
Cards · opp.1.2 · 2.2
Pens for · against1 · 0
- D10 Apr 26A · Real Madrid1–11
- D26 Sep 25H · Espanyol0–00
- L3 Mar 24A · Mallorca0–10
- W18 Dec 23H · Alaves3–00
- D12 Aug 23A · Real Sociedad1–15
Mallorca5 with this referee
Record1-3-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 0.8
Pens for · against1 · 2
- D21 Sep 25H · Atletico Madrid1–10
- D14 May 24A · Osasuna1–11
- W3 Mar 24H · Girona1–05
- D7 Oct 23H · Valencia1–12
- L26 Aug 23A · Granada CF2–37
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Girona33 games · scored 36 · conceded 50
5
4
0-15
5
7
16-30
6
6
31-45
1
14
46-60
8
8
61-75
11
11
76-90
Mallorca33 games · scored 41 · conceded 51
4
6
0-15
5
9
16-30
7
12
31-45
3
3
46-60
11
7
61-75
11
14
76-90
Girona10 games · scored 14 · conceded 13
2
1
0-15
1
16-30
3
31-45
6
46-60
5
2
61-75
4
3
76-90
Mallorca10 games · scored 13 · conceded 14
0-15
1
1
16-30
4
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
4
4
61-75
2
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
