GO Ahead Eagles
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Ajax were slight favourites.
Ajax were the stronger side on L90 Strength (58 vs 28). GO Ahead Eagles had 8.7 days of rest, Ajax 6.9 and had to travel 88 km.
Away travel88 kmRest days8.7 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
GO Ahead Eagles26%
Draw25%
Ajax49%
GO Ahead Eagles26%
Draw26%
Ajax47%
GO Ahead Eagles26%
Draw25%
Ajax49%
GO Ahead Eagles20%
Draw23%
Ajax57%
GO Ahead Eagles26%
Draw26%
Ajax47%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Deventer)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsDanny Makkelie
- Cards per match 3.6
- Penalties per match 0.23
- Matches 80
Team strength
GO Ahead Eagles
Ajax
28
L90 StrengthIn forecast
58
24
Current StrengthIn forecast
53
29
AttackIn forecast
66
17
DefenceIn forecast
55
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Form indexContext
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In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAjax
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GO Ahead EaglesAjax
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Goals scoredVia Att/Def
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Goals concededVia Att/Def
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xGVia Att/Def
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xG allowedVia Att/Def
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Goals minus xGContext
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Scored inContext
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Clean sheetsContext
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ShotsContext
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Shots on targetVia Att/Def
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On target shareContext
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Shots in the boxContext
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Box shareContext
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ConversionContext
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OffsidesContext
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Shots allowedContext
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On target allowedVia Att/Def
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BlocksContext
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Goalkeeper savesContext
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Save rateContext
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PossessionIn forecast
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PassesContext
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Accurate passesContext
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Pass accuracyContext
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Team ratingContext
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FoulsContext
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Fouls sufferedContext
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Yellow cardsContext
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Red cardsContext
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1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.34
xGVia Att/Def
1.68
1.58
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.85
-0.04
Goals minus xGContext
-0.08
80%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.80
ShotsContext
15.60
4.11
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.30
29%
On target shareContext
28%
8.22
Shots in the boxContext
12.00
61%
Box shareContext
72%
10%
ConversionContext
10%
1.43
OffsidesContext
1.67
19.80
Shots allowedContext
10.80
6.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.80
6.67
BlocksContext
3.88
4.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.13
72%
Save rateContext
71%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
476
PassesContext
547
399
Accurate passesContext
471
84%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
7.01
Team ratingContext
7.11
8.10
FoulsContext
9.30
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
GO Ahead Eagles
Rest8.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km282 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Ajax
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel88 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| GO Ahead Eagles |
Ajax |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 8 Aug | 6.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 10 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 88 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 282 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 1 | 1 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.2 | 7.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
GO Ahead Eagles
Confirmed XI
22J. De Busser(G)
5D. James
4J. Kramer
3G. Nauber
2M. Deijl
8H. Linthorst
21M. Meulensteen
17M. Suray
7J. Breum
18R. Margaret
16V. Edvardsen
Ajax
Confirmed XI
1V. Jaroš(G)
5O. Wijndal
15Y. Baas
4K. Itakura
3A. Gaaei
8K. Taylor
24J. Mokio
18D. Klaassen
7Raúl Moro
25W. Weghorst
23S. Berghuis
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences GO Ahead Eagles
Absences are shown before kick-off
Ajax
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- GO Ahead Eagles+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Ajax+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
GO Ahead Eagles · Home
No home games yet this season.
Ajax · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
0 GO Ahead Eagles wins1 draws2 Ajax wins
Goals per game1.00 – 2.00
Over 2.533%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets0% · 33%
- 23 Feb 2025Ajax2–0GO Ahead Eagles
- 21 Sep 2024GO Ahead Eagles1–1Ajax
- 14 Jan 2024GO Ahead Eagles2–3Ajax
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| GO Ahead Eagles | Ajax | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 0.00 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 2.00 | 2.88 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 0% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 0% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 100% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
| GO Ahead Eagles | Ajax | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 0.00 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 2.00 | 2.88 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 0% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 0% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 100% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| GO Ahead Eagles | Ajax | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 8.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 8.00 | 10.00 | |
| Match total | 13.00 | 18.00 | 10.33 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 1/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 1/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 10.5 | 100% 1/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 0.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 0.00 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 0.00 | 3.17 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 1/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 4.5 | 100% 1/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| GO Ahead Eagles | Ajax | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.70 | 6.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.70 | 3.89 | |
| Match total | 10.40 | 10.45 | 10.33 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 3.80 | 3.17 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Danny Makkelie Netherlands · 80 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.45league 3.23
Red cards0.13league 0.15
Cards 5+29%league 38%
Fouls21.5league 22.2
Penalties0.23league 0.15
Home wins44%league 62%
GO Ahead Eagles4 with this referee
Record2-0-2
Cards · opp.1.5 · 0.5
Pens for · against1 · 1
- L8 Feb 25A · Heracles2–40
- W23 Nov 24H · Almere City FC3–00
- W21 Jan 24A · Sparta Rotterdam2–03
- L13 Aug 23A · AZ Alkmaar1–53
Ajax8 with this referee
Record5-0-3
Cards · opp.1.3 · 2.5
Pens for · against3 · 0
- W18 May 25H · Twente2–00
- W6 Apr 25H · NAC Breda3–11
- W2 Feb 25H · Feyenoord2–13
- W30 Oct 24A · Feyenoord2–02
- L11 Feb 24A · Heerenveen2–30
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
GO Ahead Eagles1 games · scored 2 · conceded 2
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
61-75
1
1
76-90
Ajax1 games · scored 2 · conceded 0
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
GO Ahead Eagles10 games · scored 13 · conceded 17
3
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
5
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
4
61-75
4
3
76-90
Ajax10 games · scored 16 · conceded 14
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
1
4
46-60
3
2
61-75
6
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
