GO Ahead Eagles
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
GO Ahead Eagles were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards GO Ahead Eagles. GO Ahead Eagles had 4.2 days of rest, Groningen 6.3 and had to travel 111 km.
Away travel111 kmRest days4.2 · 6.3Matches / 14d2 · 1
GO Ahead Eagles47%
Draw22%
Groningen30%
GO Ahead Eagles43%
Draw26%
Groningen31%
GO Ahead Eagles46%
Draw23%
Groningen31%
GO Ahead Eagles39%
Draw23%
Groningen38%
GO Ahead Eagles47%
Draw22%
Groningen31%
Over 2.5 66%
Both score 66%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Deventer)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsDennis Higler
- Cards per match 3.1
- Penalties per match 0.18
- Matches 49
Team strength
GO Ahead Eagles
Groningen
26
L90 StrengthIn forecast
28
24
Current StrengthIn forecast
30
29
AttackIn forecast
41
17
DefenceIn forecast
21
46
Form indexContext
39
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGroningen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GO Ahead EaglesGroningen
2.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.20
2.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.40
1.65
xGVia Att/Def
1.83
1.80
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.15
+1.15
Goals minus xGContext
+0.37
100%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
13.60
ShotsContext
16.60
6.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.80
47%
On target shareContext
35%
8.80
Shots in the boxContext
13.25
65%
Box shareContext
70%
21%
ConversionContext
13%
1.25
OffsidesContext
2.25
19.00
Shots allowedContext
14.60
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.60
6.20
BlocksContext
2.25
3.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.20
57%
Save rateContext
64%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
459
PassesContext
428
378
Accurate passesContext
349
82%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.85
7.60
FoulsContext
7.80
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
10.80
0.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.20
1.30
xGVia Att/Def
1.38
2.11
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.88
+0.50
Goals minus xGContext
+0.42
80%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
11.90
ShotsContext
13.50
4.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.90
39%
On target shareContext
36%
8.22
Shots in the boxContext
9.56
63%
Box shareContext
65%
15%
ConversionContext
13%
1.71
OffsidesContext
2.33
22.40
Shots allowedContext
13.20
5.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.50
7.40
BlocksContext
2.67
4.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.10
68%
Save rateContext
56%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
406
PassesContext
407
327
Accurate passesContext
325
81%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.81
7.90
FoulsContext
9.50
10.20
Fouls sufferedContext
10.60
1.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
GO Ahead Eagles
WDWLD
Rest4.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km356 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 46 · 8 pts vs 8.5 for an average club · +1.7 vs expected
Groningen
WWLLD
Rest6.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel111 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 39 · 7 pts vs 8.3 for an average club · +0.4 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| GO Ahead Eagles |
Groningen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.2Eredivisie 2026-2027, 8 Sep | 6.3Eredivisie 2026-2027, 6 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 111 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 356 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.9 | 6.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
GO Ahead Eagles
Confirmed XI
1C. Haug(G)
5D. James
4J. Kramer
26J. Dirksen
2A. Sampsted
8H. Linthorst
21M. Meulensteen
17M. Suray
16V. Edvardsen
10S. Tengstedt
9S. Sigurðarson
Groningen
Confirmed XI
1E. Vaessen(G)
2W. Prins
3T. Blokzijl
4M. Csinger
14J. Schreuders
18T. Land
8T. de Jonge
24P. Clement
26T. van Bergen
17D. van der Werff
9B. Willumsson
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences GO Ahead Eagles
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Groningen
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- GO Ahead Eagles+1.0 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Groningen-0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
GO Ahead Eagles · Home
3.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 3.50
- Conceded
- 1.00
Groningen · Away
1.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 2.50
- Conceded
- 3.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | GO Ahead Eagles | Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| Utrecht | D 3–3 A | W 2–1 H |
| ADO Den Haag | W 3–1 H | W 4–1 A |
| Points | 4 of 6 · 2.00 per game | 6 of 6 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
2 GO Ahead Eagles wins2 draws0 Groningen wins
Goals per game1.00 – 0.50
Over 2.525%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 25%
- 11 Apr 2026Groningen0–0GO Ahead Eagles
- 21 Dec 2025GO Ahead Eagles1–1Groningen
- 18 Jan 2025GO Ahead Eagles2–1Groningen
- 29 Sep 2024Groningen0–1GO Ahead Eagles
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| GO Ahead Eagles | Groningen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.80 | 2.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.40 | 2.40 | |
| Match goals | 5.20 | 4.60 | 3.41 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 100% | 66% |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% | 66% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| GO Ahead Eagles | Groningen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.80 | 3.80 | 3.41 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 90% | 66% |
| Over 3.5 | 70% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 90% | 66% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| GO Ahead Eagles | Groningen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.20 | 5.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.20 | 3.80 | |
| Match total | 10.40 | 9.00 | 10.51 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 3/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 3/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 3/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.80 | 1.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 1.80 | 2.80 | 2.65 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| GO Ahead Eagles | Groningen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.40 | 4.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.60 | 4.89 | |
| Match total | 12.00 | 9.78 | 10.51 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 8/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 80% 8/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.30 | 1.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.80 | 1.10 | |
| Match total | 2.10 | 2.50 | 2.65 |
| Over 3.5 | 10% 1/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Dennis Higler Netherlands · 49 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.88league 2.67
Red cards0.22league 0.07
Cards 5+27%league 13%
Fouls22.0league 20.9
Penalties0.18league 0.26
Home wins43%league 26%
GO Ahead Eagles4 with this referee
Record0-3-1
Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.3
Pens for · against2 · 0
- D8 Feb 26H · Telstar1–11
- L1 Nov 25A · NAC Breda0–12
- D2 Feb 25H · Twente2–21
- D11 Feb 24H · PEC Zwolle1–12
Groningen2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.3.5 · 0.5
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds2
- D1 Mar 25H · Twente1–12
- L22 Sep 24A · Heerenveen1–25
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
GO Ahead Eagles5 games · scored 14 · conceded 12
2
0-15
3
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
5
2
61-75
3
4
76-90
Groningen5 games · scored 11 · conceded 12
3
3
0-15
4
1
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
61-75
2
1
76-90
GO Ahead Eagles10 games · scored 18 · conceded 20
3
0-15
4
2
16-30
1
5
31-45
4
2
46-60
5
3
61-75
4
5
76-90
Groningen10 games · scored 18 · conceded 22
5
4
0-15
4
4
16-30
2
4
31-45
4
4
46-60
3
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
