GO Ahead Eagles
Attack—
Defense risk—
GO Ahead Eagles
11th · 9 pts · 7 played
LDWWL
1–1Full time
NEC Nijmegen
8th · 12 pts · 7 played
WLLLW
Our take
GO Ahead Eagles were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. GO Ahead Eagles had 3.1 days of rest, NEC Nijmegen 7.3 and had to travel 51 km.
Away travel51 kmRest days3.1 · 7.3Matches / 14d3 · 1
GO Ahead Eagles41%
Draw26%
NEC Nijmegen33%
GO Ahead Eagles41%
Draw27%
NEC Nijmegen32%
GO Ahead Eagles42%
Draw26%
NEC Nijmegen32%
GO Ahead Eagles34%
Draw26%
NEC Nijmegen40%
GO Ahead Eagles41%
Draw27%
NEC Nijmegen32%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Deventer)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsMartijn Vos
- Cards per match 3.1
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 9
Team strength
GO Ahead EaglesNEC Nijmegen
28
L90 StrengthIn forecast
31
24
Current StrengthIn forecast
32
29
AttackIn forecast
37
17
DefenceIn forecast
33
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNEC Nijmegen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GO Ahead EaglesNEC Nijmegen
1.86
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.00
1.86
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.86
1.43
xGVia Att/Def
2.19
1.70
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.48
+0.43
Goals minus xGContext
+0.81
86%
Scored inContext
100%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
13.86
ShotsContext
16.71
6.14
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.43
44%
On target shareContext
44%
10.33
Shots in the boxContext
10.57
68%
Box shareContext
62%
13%
ConversionContext
18%
2.40
OffsidesContext
2.67
19.43
Shots allowedContext
11.14
5.57
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.86
7.67
BlocksContext
2.00
3.71
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.86
67%
Save rateContext
66%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
440
PassesContext
453
370
Accurate passesContext
365
84%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.89
Team ratingContext
7.08
9.14
FoulsContext
11.86
9.43
Fouls sufferedContext
14.00
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.43
0.14
Red cardsContext
0.14
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.90
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.69
xGVia Att/Def
2.00
1.79
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.53
+0.11
Goals minus xGContext
+0.90
80%
Scored inContext
100%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
15.00
ShotsContext
14.90
6.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.00
40%
On target shareContext
47%
10.78
Shots in the boxContext
9.40
68%
Box shareContext
62%
12%
ConversionContext
20%
2.17
OffsidesContext
2.25
19.60
Shots allowedContext
12.90
6.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.78
7.63
BlocksContext
3.10
4.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.11
68%
Save rateContext
71%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
458
PassesContext
430
388
Accurate passesContext
345
85%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.94
Team ratingContext
7.11
9.00
FoulsContext
10.90
9.60
Fouls sufferedContext
12.80
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
GO Ahead Eagles
Rest3.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km4,392 km in 14d
Schedule load33%Moderate
NEC Nijmegen
Rest7.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel51 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| GO Ahead Eagles |
NEC Nijmegen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 33 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3.1UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 2 Oct | 7.3Eredivisie 2025-2026, 28 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 51 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 4,392 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 5 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 12.9 | 12.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
GO Ahead Eagles
Confirmed XI
22J. De Busser(G)
5D. James
4J. Kramer
3G. Nauber
2M. Deijl
8H. Linthorst
7J. Breum
21M. Meulensteen
18R. Margaret
9M. Smit
17M. Suray
NEC Nijmegen
Confirmed XI
1G. Crettaz(G)
5T. Ouwejan
4A. Kaplan
2B. Pereira
7V. Misidjan
23K. Sano
71D. Proper
25S. Ouaissa
10T. Chery
30B. Linssen
18K. Ogawa
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences GO Ahead Eagles
Scores -0.07 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
NEC Nijmegen
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- GO Ahead Eagles-0.6 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- NEC Nijmegen+0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
GO Ahead Eagles · Home
1.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 1.67
NEC Nijmegen · Away
1.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 2.67
- Conceded
- 2.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | GO Ahead Eagles | NEC Nijmegen |
|---|---|---|
| Heerenveen | D 2–2 A | L 2–3 A |
| Fortuna Sittard | D 2–2 A | L 2–3 A |
| Points | 2 of 6 · 1.00 per game | 0 of 6 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
2 GO Ahead Eagles wins2 draws0 NEC Nijmegen wins
Goals per game2.75 – 1.25
Over 2.575%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets25% · 0%
- 9 Mar 2025NEC Nijmegen2–3GO Ahead Eagles
- 7 Dec 2024GO Ahead Eagles5–0NEC Nijmegen
- 28 Jan 2024GO Ahead Eagles2–2NEC Nijmegen
- 26 Nov 2023NEC Nijmegen1–1GO Ahead Eagles
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| GO Ahead Eagles | NEC Nijmegen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.86 | 3.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.86 | 1.86 | |
| Match goals | 3.71 | 4.86 | 2.85 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 86% | 100% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 57% | 71% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 71% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 0% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| GO Ahead Eagles | NEC Nijmegen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.67 | 3.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.67 | 1.86 | |
| Match goals | 3.33 | 4.86 | 2.85 |
| Over 1.5 | 89% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 78% | 100% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 44% | 71% | |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 71% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 22% | 0% | |
| Games | 9 | 7 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| GO Ahead Eagles | NEC Nijmegen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.71 | 5.71 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.57 | 3.29 | |
| Match total | 12.28 | 9.00 | 9.97 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 7/7 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 7/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 71% 5/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.14 | 1.57 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 3.43 | |
| Match total | 3.14 | 5.00 | 3.74 |
| Over 3.5 | 43% 3/7 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 14% 1/7 | 71% 5/7 | |
| GO Ahead Eagles | NEC Nijmegen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.80 | 4.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.70 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 12.50 | 9.40 | 9.97 |
| Over 8.5 | 90% 9/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 90% 9/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 70% 7/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.10 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 3.20 | 4.30 | 3.74 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Martijn Vos Netherlands · 9 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.11league 3.51
Red cards0.00league 0.23
Cards 5+0%league 35%
Fouls27.7league 22.1
Penalties0.33league 0.21
Home wins33%league 51%
GO Ahead EaglesNo previous matches with this referee.
NEC Nijmegen1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against2 · 0
- W3 Nov 24H · Groningen6–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
GO Ahead Eagles6 games · scored 11 · conceded 13
3
2
0-15
2
16-30
3
5
31-45
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
NEC Nijmegen7 games · scored 21 · conceded 13
2
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
4
3
46-60
5
2
61-75
6
1
76-90
GO Ahead Eagles9 games · scored 16 · conceded 20
4
3
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
5
31-45
3
46-60
3
3
61-75
4
5
76-90
NEC Nijmegen10 games · scored 29 · conceded 14
2
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
6
4
46-60
9
2
61-75
7
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
