GO Ahead Eagles
Attack—
Defense risk—
GO Ahead Eagles
11th · 38 pts · 32 played
LWDDD
First leg1–2
1–4Full time
PSV Eindhoven
1st · 78 pts · 32 played
LWWWD
Our take
PSV Eindhoven were slight favourites.
PSV Eindhoven were the stronger side on L90 Strength (75 vs 25). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for GO Ahead Eagles. GO Ahead Eagles had 7 days of rest, PSV Eindhoven 7.9 and had to travel 102 km.
Away travel102 kmRest days7 · 7.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
GO Ahead Eagles21%
Draw21%
PSV Eindhoven57%
GO Ahead Eagles17%
Draw23%
PSV Eindhoven61%
GO Ahead Eagles20%
Draw21%
PSV Eindhoven60%
GO Ahead Eagles16%
Draw19%
PSV Eindhoven66%
GO Ahead Eagles22%
Draw22%
PSV Eindhoven55%
Over 2.5 67%
Both score 65%
Likeliest score 1–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Deventer)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsMartin Van den Kerkhof
- Cards per match 2.7
- Penalties per match 0.27
- Matches 37
Team strength
GO Ahead EaglesPSV Eindhoven
25
L90 StrengthIn forecast
75
24
Current StrengthIn forecast
71
29
AttackIn forecast
60
17
DefenceIn forecast
64
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisPSV Eindhoven
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GO Ahead EaglesPSV Eindhoven
1.63
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.88
1.47
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.34
1.20
xGVia Att/Def
2.02
1.71
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.12
+0.43
Goals minus xGContext
+0.86
78%
Scored inContext
97%
28%
Clean sheetsContext
22%
11.28
ShotsContext
17.13
5.06
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.06
44%
On target shareContext
41%
8.39
Shots in the boxContext
11.72
69%
Box shareContext
69%
14%
ConversionContext
17%
1.84
OffsidesContext
2.00
18.25
Shots allowedContext
11.13
5.38
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.10
6.10
BlocksContext
3.56
4.13
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.90
77%
Save rateContext
68%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
61%
409
PassesContext
551
331
Accurate passesContext
479
81%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.88
Team ratingContext
7.08
8.84
FoulsContext
10.91
10.34
Fouls sufferedContext
8.22
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.41
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.03
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.60
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.33
xGVia Att/Def
2.16
1.74
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.31
+0.57
Goals minus xGContext
+0.44
60%
Scored inContext
100%
60%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
11.00
ShotsContext
17.50
5.11
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.20
42%
On target shareContext
41%
8.56
Shots in the boxContext
11.80
72%
Box shareContext
68%
17%
ConversionContext
15%
2.17
OffsidesContext
2.14
19.60
Shots allowedContext
12.00
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.90
6.00
BlocksContext
4.44
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.20
83%
Save rateContext
65%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
63%
375
PassesContext
553
293
Accurate passesContext
481
78%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.98
Team ratingContext
7.08
8.00
FoulsContext
9.90
9.80
Fouls sufferedContext
7.60
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
GO Ahead Eagles
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km242 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
PSV Eindhoven
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel102 km223 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| GO Ahead Eagles |
PSV Eindhoven |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 3 May | 7.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 2 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 102 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 242 km | 223 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
GO Ahead Eagles
Confirmed XI
22J. De Busser(G)
29A. Adelgaard
4J. Kramer
26J. Dirksen
2A. Sampsted
7J. Breum
21M. Meulensteen
17M. Suray
16V. Edvardsen
10S. Tengstedt
9S. Sigurðarson
PSV Eindhoven
Confirmed XI
32M. Kovář(G)
8S. Dest
3Yarek Gąsiorowski
6R. Flamingo
25K. Sildillia
31N. Fernandez
10P. Wanner
5I. Perišić
20G. Til
19E. Bajraktarević
9R. Pepi
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences GO Ahead Eagles
Absences are shown before kick-off
PSV Eindhoven
Scores -0.08 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- GO Ahead Eagles+1.5 pp
- Draw+0.6 pp
- PSV Eindhoven-2.2 pp
Home / Away this season
GO Ahead Eagles · Home
1.56points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-7-3
- Scored
- 2.06
- Conceded
- 1.25
PSV Eindhoven · Away
2.50points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 13-1-2
- Scored
- 2.44
- Conceded
- 1.13
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | GO Ahead Eagles | PSV Eindhoven |
|---|---|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam | D 2–2 AL 0–3 H | W 2–0 AW 6–1 H |
| AZ Alkmaar | D 0–0 HD 2–2 A | W 2–1 HW 5–1 A |
| Groningen | D 0–0 AD 1–1 H | W 2–1 AW 4–2 H |
| PEC Zwolle | W 5–0 HW 2–0 A | W 6–1 HW 4–0 A |
| Utrecht | L 0–2 AD 2–2 H | W 4–3 HW 2–1 A |
| NAC Breda | W 6–0 HL 0–1 A | D 2–2 HW 1–0 A |
| Twente | L 1–4 HL 0–2 A | W 2–0 A |
| Excelsior | W 1–0 AW 2–0 H | W 5–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Heracles | W 4–0 HL 2–4 A | W 3–1 AW 4–3 H |
| Feyenoord | L 0–1 AW 2–1 H | W 3–0 HW 3–2 A |
| Heerenveen | L 1–3 HD 2–2 A | W 3–1 HW 2–0 A |
| Telstar | D 1–1 HL 2–4 A | L 1–3 AL 0–2 H |
| FC Volendam | D 1–1 AW 3–0 H | L 1–2 AW 3–0 H |
| Ajax | D 2–2 AD 2–2 H | D 2–2 AD 2–2 H |
| Fortuna Sittard | D 2–2 HD 2–2 A | W 2–1 AW 5–2 H |
| NEC Nijmegen | D 1–1 H | L 2–3 HW 5–3 A |
| Points | 38 of 93 · 1.23 per game | 75 of 93 · 2.42 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
1 GO Ahead Eagles wins0 draws3 PSV Eindhoven wins
Goals per game1.00 – 2.50
Over 2.5100%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 18 Oct 2025PSV Eindhoven2–1GO Ahead Eagles
- 1 Mar 2025GO Ahead Eagles3–2PSV Eindhoven
- 1 Sep 2024PSV Eindhoven3–0GO Ahead Eagles
- 27 Sep 2023PSV Eindhoven3–0GO Ahead Eagles
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| GO Ahead Eagles | PSV Eindhoven | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.63 | 2.88 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.47 | 1.34 | |
| Match goals | 3.09 | 4.22 | 3.48 |
| Over 1.5 | 84% | 97% | |
| Over 2.5 | 59% | 84% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 | 47% | 56% | |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 75% | 65% |
| Clean sheets | 28% | 22% | |
| Failed to score | 22% | 3% | |
| Games | 32 | 32 |
| GO Ahead Eagles | PSV Eindhoven | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.90 | 2.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 4.30 | 3.48 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 90% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 70% | |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 90% | 65% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| GO Ahead Eagles | PSV Eindhoven | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.25 | 7.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.91 | 4.09 | |
| Match total | 11.16 | 11.09 | 10.29 |
| Over 8.5 | 84% 27/32 | 78% 25/32 | |
| Over 9.5 | 69% 22/32 | 78% 25/32 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 18/32 | 56% 18/32 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.66 | 1.47 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.59 | |
| Match total | 3.16 | 3.06 | 3.31 |
| Over 3.5 | 38% 12/32 | 28% 9/32 | |
| Over 4.5 | 22% 7/32 | 22% 7/32 | |
| GO Ahead Eagles | PSV Eindhoven | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.40 | 6.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.60 | 3.80 | |
| Match total | 12.00 | 10.50 | 10.29 |
| Over 8.5 | 90% 9/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 1.30 | |
| Match total | 2.50 | 2.90 | 3.31 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Martin Van den Kerkhof Netherlands · 37 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.35league 3.13
Red cards0.30league 0.18
Cards 5+16%league 26%
Fouls18.5league 21.2
Penalties0.27league 0.21
Home wins41%league 44%
GO Ahead Eagles1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L19 Oct 24H · Feyenoord1–51
PSV Eindhoven3 with this referee
Record3-0-0
Cards · opp.0.3 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W30 Nov 25H · FC Volendam3–00
- W18 Aug 24A · Heracles3–10
- W11 Feb 24A · FC Volendam5–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
GO Ahead Eagles31 games · scored 50 · conceded 47
10
5
0-15
3
6
16-30
9
12
31-45
8
9
46-60
9
6
61-75
11
9
76-90
PSV Eindhoven32 games · scored 92 · conceded 43
15
6
0-15
16
4
16-30
15
11
31-45
15
4
46-60
11
11
61-75
20
7
76-90
GO Ahead Eagles10 games · scored 19 · conceded 9
4
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
2
31-45
5
2
46-60
4
1
61-75
3
1
76-90
PSV Eindhoven10 games · scored 26 · conceded 17
4
4
0-15
1
2
16-30
5
2
31-45
5
1
46-60
2
4
61-75
9
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
