Gornik Zabrze
Attack—
Defense risk—
UEFA Champions League 2026-2027
Qualifying rounds Wed, Jul 29 · 19:00
Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla, Zabrze
Gornik Zabrze
21st · 0 pts · 1 played
L
First leg0–1
1–1Full time
Fenerbahce
8th · 3 pts · 1 played
W
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel1,300 kmRest days8 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Gornik Zabrze—%
Draw—%
Fenerbahce—%
Weather (Zabrze)
No weather data yet
RefereeLothar D'hondt
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 49
Team strength
Gornik ZabrzeFenerbahce
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L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
18
Current StrengthIn forecast
62
21
AttackIn forecast
75
25
DefenceIn forecast
53
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Form indexContext
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In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFenerbahce
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Gornik ZabrzeFenerbahce
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Goals scoredVia Att/Def
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—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
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xGVia Att/Def
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—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
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—
Goals minus xGContext
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Scored inContext
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Clean sheetsContext
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—
ShotsContext
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—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
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—
On target shareContext
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—
Shots in the boxContext
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Box shareContext
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ConversionContext
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—
OffsidesContext
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—
Shots allowedContext
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On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
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—
Goalkeeper savesContext
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Save rateContext
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PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
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Pass accuracyContext
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Team ratingContext
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FoulsContext
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Fouls sufferedContext
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Yellow cardsContext
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Red cardsContext
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1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.10
0.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.41
xGVia Att/Def
1.98
1.07
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.10
-0.01
Goals minus xGContext
+0.12
60%
Scored inContext
80%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
13.00
ShotsContext
16.00
4.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.30
30%
On target shareContext
39%
6.90
Shots in the boxContext
8.60
49%
Box shareContext
54%
11%
ConversionContext
13%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.00
12.60
Shots allowedContext
10.10
3.88
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.30
4.10
BlocksContext
3.56
3.57
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.33
83%
Save rateContext
70%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
61%
412
PassesContext
519
340
Accurate passesContext
451
83%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.93
Team ratingContext
7.03
9.70
FoulsContext
10.90
12.50
Fouls sufferedContext
14.10
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Gornik Zabrze
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km2,599 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Fenerbahce
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel1,300 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Gornik Zabrze |
Fenerbahce |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8UEFA Champions League 2026-2027, 21 Jul | 8UEFA Champions League 2026-2027, 21 Jul |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,300 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,599 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 1 | 0 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Gornik Zabrze
Confirmed XI
1P. Schulze(G)
64E. Janža
20Josema Sánchez
26R. Janicki
61M. Sáček
66M. Dietz
88T. Ismaheel
82K. Urbański
18L. Sadílek
7Yvan Ikia Dimi
11E. Prekop
Fenerbahce
Confirmed XI
34F. Günok(G)
24J. Oosterwolde
15N. Aké
37M. Škriniar
27Nélson Semedo
7Fred
6M. Guendouzi
9M. Aktürkoğlu
10Marco Asensio
17İ. Kahveci
94Talisca
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Gornik Zabrze
Absences are shown before kick-off
Fenerbahce
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
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Home / Away this season
Gornik Zabrze · Home
No home games yet this season.
Fenerbahce · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Gornik Zabrze wins0 draws1 Fenerbahce wins
Goals per game0.00 – 1.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets0% · 100%
- 21 Jul 2026Fenerbahce1–0Gornik Zabrze
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Gornik Zabrze | Fenerbahce | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.00 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.00 | |
| Match goals | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Over 1.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 0% | |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 100% | |
| Failed to score | 100% | 0% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
| Gornik Zabrze | Fenerbahce | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.00 | 2.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 1.00 | 3.30 | |
| Over 1.5 | 0% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 70% | |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 40% | |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 100% | 20% | |
| Games | 1 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Gornik Zabrze | Fenerbahce | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.00 | 9.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 9.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 11.00 | 9.80 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 1/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 1/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 10.5 | 100% 1/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| Match total | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.60 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Gornik Zabrze | Fenerbahce | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.90 | 7.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.10 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 11.78 | 9.80 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.90 | |
| Match total | 3.20 | 5.30 | 4.60 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Lothar D'hondt 49 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.78league 4.36
Red cards0.27league 0.26
Cards 5+35%league 43%
Fouls24.4league 26.3
Penalties0.33league 0.32
Home wins43%league 49%
Gornik ZabrzeNo previous matches with this referee.
FenerbahceNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Gornik Zabrze1 games · scored 0 · conceded 1
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90
Fenerbahce1 games · scored 1 · conceded 0
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90
Gornik Zabrze10 games · scored 14 · conceded 7
3
0-15
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
5
3
76-90
Fenerbahce10 games · scored 21 · conceded 12
1
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
4
31-45
4
2
46-60
5
1
61-75
7
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.