Gornik Zabrze
Attack—
Defense risk—
UEFA Europa League 2026-2027
Qualifying rounds Thu, Aug 13 · 18:00
Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla, Zabrze
Gornik Zabrze
17th · 0 pts · 1 played
L
First leg0–1
1–1Full time
Ferencvarosi TC
1st · 13 pts · 5 played
WWWDW
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel315 kmRest days7.9 · 7.9Matches / 14d1 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Gornik Zabrze—%
Draw—%
Ferencvarosi TC—%
Weather (Zabrze)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyAndrea Colombo
- Cards per match 4.9
- Penalties per match 0.15
- Matches 71
Team strength
Gornik ZabrzeFerencvarosi TC
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
18
Current StrengthIn forecast
57
21
AttackIn forecast
61
25
DefenceIn forecast
56
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFerencvarosi TC
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Gornik ZabrzeFerencvarosi TC
—
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
—
Scored inContext
100%
—
Clean sheetsContext
40%
—
ShotsContext
—
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
—
On target shareContext
—
—
Shots in the boxContext
—
—
Box shareContext
—
—
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
—
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
—
Save rateContext
—
—
PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
—
—
Pass accuracyContext
—
—
Team ratingContext
—
—
FoulsContext
—
—
Fouls sufferedContext
—
—
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
—
Red cardsContext
0.20
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.48
xGVia Att/Def
1.05
1.14
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.12
-0.28
Goals minus xGContext
+0.45
60%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
13.56
ShotsContext
11.80
4.88
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.20
32%
On target shareContext
36%
6.89
Shots in the boxContext
7.20
47%
Box shareContext
59%
10%
ConversionContext
9%
1.67
OffsidesContext
2.60
13.22
Shots allowedContext
12.20
3.75
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.40
4.44
BlocksContext
3.00
3.29
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.60
79%
Save rateContext
67%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
400
PassesContext
380
332
Accurate passesContext
314
83%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.79
9.56
FoulsContext
13.00
12.44
Fouls sufferedContext
12.40
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Gornik Zabrze
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km630 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Ferencvarosi TC
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel315 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Gornik Zabrze |
Ferencvarosi TC |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.9UEFA Europa League 2026-2027, 5 Aug | 7.9UEFA Europa League 2026-2027, 5 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 315 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 630 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | — | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Gornik Zabrze
Confirmed XI
1P. Schulze(G)
61M. Sáček
26R. Janicki
20Josema Sánchez
64E. Janža
82K. Urbański
66M. Dietz
8Paulo Bernardo
19P. González
11E. Prekop
33M. Khlan
Ferencvarosi TC
Confirmed XI
90D. Dibusz(G)
14A. Osváth
28T. Raemaekers
4M. Gómez
20Cadu
17M. Corbu
88P. Rommens
16K. Zachariassen
36G. Kanichowsky
11B. Yusuf
75L. Joseph
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Gornik Zabrze
Absences are shown before kick-off
Ferencvarosi TC
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Gornik Zabrze · Home
No home games yet this season.
Ferencvarosi TC · Away
3.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Gornik Zabrze wins0 draws1 Ferencvarosi TC wins
Goals per game0.00 – 1.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets0% · 100%
- 5 Aug 2026Ferencvarosi TC1–0Gornik Zabrze
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Gornik Zabrze | Ferencvarosi TC | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.00 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 1.00 | 2.80 | |
| Over 1.5 | 0% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 80% | |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 60% | |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 100% | 0% | |
| Games | 1 | 5 |
| Gornik Zabrze | Ferencvarosi TC | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.33 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 1.33 | 2.90 | |
| Over 1.5 | 33% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 70% | |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 40% | |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 67% | 20% | |
| Games | 3 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Gornik Zabrze | Ferencvarosi TC | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | — | — | |
| Corners conceded | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 9.08 |
| Over 8.5 | — | — | |
| Over 9.5 | — | — | |
| Over 10.5 | — | — | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 1.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.00 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 1.00 | 2.80 | 5.42 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/1 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/1 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Gornik Zabrze | Ferencvarosi TC | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.78 | 2.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.67 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 11.45 | 8.80 | 9.08 |
| Over 8.5 | 89% 8/9 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 78% 7/9 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 4.00 | 5.42 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Andrea Colombo Italy · 71 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.72league 3.82
Red cards0.17league 0.18
Cards 5+54%league 43%
Fouls24.9league 29.6
Penalties0.15league 0.20
Home wins38%league 50%
Gornik ZabrzeNo previous matches with this referee.
Ferencvarosi TCNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Gornik Zabrze1 games · scored 0 · conceded 1
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
76-90
Ferencvarosi TC5 games · scored 10 · conceded 4
2
0-15
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
46-60
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
Gornik Zabrze10 games · scored 12 · conceded 9
2
1
0-15
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
1
46-60
2
4
61-75
3
3
76-90
Ferencvarosi TC10 games · scored 15 · conceded 14
3
2
0-15
4
3
16-30
2
3
31-45
1
2
46-60
3
1
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.