Goztepe
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Goztepe were slight favourites.
Goztepe were the stronger side on L90 Strength (31 vs 21). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Goztepe. Goztepe had 7.2 days of rest, Alanyaspor 5 and had to travel 477 km.
Away travel477 kmRest days7.2 · 5Matches / 14d2 · 2
Goztepe52%
Draw26%
Alanyaspor22%
Goztepe52%
Draw25%
Alanyaspor23%
Goztepe52%
Draw27%
Alanyaspor22%
Goztepe45%
Draw28%
Alanyaspor27%
Goztepe53%
Draw26%
Alanyaspor21%
Over 2.5 46%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İzmir)
No weather data yet
RefereeAsen Albayrak
Team strength
Goztepe
Alanyaspor
31
L90 StrengthIn forecast
21
29
Current StrengthIn forecast
24
39
AttackIn forecast
18
36
DefenceIn forecast
24
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAlanyaspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GoztepeAlanyaspor
1.12
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.04
0.72
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.18
xGVia Att/Def
1.01
0.97
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.29
-0.06
Goals minus xGContext
+0.03
68%
Scored inContext
72%
56%
Clean sheetsContext
32%
13.32
ShotsContext
12.24
4.58
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.92
33%
On target shareContext
32%
8.52
Shots in the boxContext
7.80
64%
Box shareContext
63%
8%
ConversionContext
9%
1.90
OffsidesContext
1.86
11.40
Shots allowedContext
10.32
3.65
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
3.46
BlocksContext
2.68
2.91
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.83
80%
Save rateContext
68%
39%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
250
PassesContext
394
173
Accurate passesContext
332
69%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.84
16.60
FoulsContext
11.84
9.32
Fouls sufferedContext
14.12
2.28
Yellow cardsContext
2.36
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.17
xGVia Att/Def
1.03
1.08
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.32
-0.17
Goals minus xGContext
+0.17
60%
Scored inContext
80%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
13.50
ShotsContext
13.50
4.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.40
31%
On target shareContext
33%
8.80
Shots in the boxContext
8.70
65%
Box shareContext
65%
7%
ConversionContext
9%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.80
11.00
Shots allowedContext
10.10
4.13
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.22
3.60
BlocksContext
2.50
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.67
73%
Save rateContext
63%
40%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
256
PassesContext
397
175
Accurate passesContext
342
68%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.85
15.90
FoulsContext
10.80
9.60
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Goztepe
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km656 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Alanyaspor
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel477 km1,126 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Goztepe |
Alanyaspor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.2Süper Lig 2025-2026, 7 Mar | 5Süper Lig 2025-2026, 9 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 477 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 656 km | 1,126 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 20.8 | 3.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Goztepe
Confirmed XI
1M. Lis(G)
26M. Bokele
5Héliton
3Allan
15A. Cherni
20N. Miroshi
30A. Dennis
77O. Bayrak
8A. Antunes
9Juan
19Jeh
Alanyaspor
Confirmed XI
48Paulo Victor(G)
50Ü. Akdağ
5F. Aliti
3Nuno Lima
11Ruan
17N. Janvier
42G. Makouta
94F. Hadërgjonaj
16U. Hwang
14I. Hagi
9S. Mounié
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Goztepe
Absences are shown before kick-off
Alanyaspor
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Goztepe+0.3 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Alanyaspor-0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Goztepe · Home
1.92points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-5-1
- Scored
- 1.17
- Conceded
- 0.42
Alanyaspor · Away
0.92points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-8-3
- Scored
- 1.17
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Goztepe | Alanyaspor |
|---|---|---|
| Istanbul Basaksehir | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H | L 1–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Eyüpspor | D 0–0 HD 0–0 A | L 1–3 HL 1–2 A |
| Besiktas | L 0–4 AW 3–0 H | D 2–2 AW 2–0 H |
| Kayserispor | D 0–0 HD 1–1 A | D 0–0 A |
| Konyaspor | D 0–0 AD 1–1 H | W 2–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Fatih Karagümrük | W 2–1 HW 2–0 A | W 2–0 H |
| Fenerbahce | D 1–1 AD 0–0 H | L 2–3 HD 2–2 A |
| Rizespor | W 3–1 HW 3–0 A | D 1–1 AD 0–0 H |
| Samsunspor | W 2–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | W 1–0 A | D 0–0 H |
| Trabzonspor | L 1–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| Antalyaspor | W 2–1 A | D 0–0 H |
| Kocaelispor | D 0–0 H | L 0–2 A |
| Kasimpasa | W 2–0 A | L 1–2 H |
| Genclerbirligi | W 1–0 H | D 0–0 HD 2–2 A |
| Galatasaray | L 1–3 A | L 1–3 AL 0–1 H |
| Points | 42 of 72 · 1.75 per game | 24 of 72 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
0 Goztepe wins1 draws2 Alanyaspor wins
Goals per game0.33 – 1.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets0% · 67%
- 19 Oct 2025Alanyaspor1–0Goztepe
- 2 Feb 2025Goztepe0–1Alanyaspor
- 23 Aug 2024Alanyaspor1–1Goztepe
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Goztepe | Alanyaspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.12 | 1.04 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.72 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 1.84 | 2.24 | 2.52 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 72% | |
| Over 2.5 | 36% | 44% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 12% | 24% | |
| Both teams scored | 36% | 60% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 56% | 32% | |
| Failed to score | 32% | 28% | |
| Games | 25 | 25 |
| Goztepe | Alanyaspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 1.90 | 2.70 | 2.52 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 60% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Goztepe | Alanyaspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.60 | 4.86 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.76 | 3.48 | |
| Match total | 9.36 | 8.34 | 9.42 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 15/25 | 43% 9/21 | |
| Over 9.5 | 48% 12/25 | 33% 7/21 | |
| Over 10.5 | 32% 8/25 | 33% 7/21 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.44 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.04 | |
| Match total | 4.64 | 4.44 | 4.68 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 15/25 | 56% 14/25 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 10/25 | 44% 11/25 | |
| Goztepe | Alanyaspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.60 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.10 | 2.89 | |
| Match total | 9.70 | 7.89 | 9.42 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 2.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 4.80 | 4.68 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Goztepe25 games · scored 28 · conceded 18
2
3
0-15
4
2
16-30
6
2
31-45
6
4
46-60
4
4
61-75
6
3
76-90
Alanyaspor25 games · scored 26 · conceded 30
5
5
0-15
4
2
16-30
3
3
31-45
3
7
46-60
4
4
61-75
7
9
76-90
Goztepe10 games · scored 10 · conceded 9
3
0-15
3
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
1
76-90
Alanyaspor10 games · scored 12 · conceded 15
4
2
0-15
2
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
4
46-60
1
61-75
2
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
