Goztepe
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Goztepe were clear favourites.
Goztepe were the stronger side on L90 Strength (30 vs 13). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Goztepe. Goztepe had 7.1 days of rest, Antalyaspor 8 and had to travel 355 km.
Away travel355 kmRest days7.1 · 8Matches / 14d2 · 1
Goztepe64%
Draw21%
Antalyaspor15%
Goztepe60%
Draw23%
Antalyaspor17%
Goztepe64%
Draw21%
Antalyaspor15%
Goztepe56%
Draw23%
Antalyaspor20%
Goztepe65%
Draw20%
Antalyaspor15%
Over 2.5 59%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İzmir)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeOguzhan Cakir
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.40
- Matches 20
Team strength
Goztepe
Antalyaspor
30
L90 StrengthIn forecast
13
29
Current StrengthIn forecast
13
39
AttackIn forecast
11
36
DefenceIn forecast
14
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAntalyaspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GoztepeAntalyaspor
1.23
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.63
1.27
xGVia Att/Def
0.81
1.00
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.47
-0.04
Goals minus xGContext
+0.19
73%
Scored inContext
63%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
23%
13.10
ShotsContext
8.93
4.55
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.55
34%
On target shareContext
38%
8.57
Shots in the boxContext
5.97
66%
Box shareContext
64%
9%
ConversionContext
11%
1.96
OffsidesContext
2.19
11.57
Shots allowedContext
13.47
3.63
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.03
3.52
BlocksContext
3.14
2.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.45
77%
Save rateContext
69%
39%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
247
PassesContext
324
170
Accurate passesContext
254
69%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.73
16.63
FoulsContext
12.37
9.43
Fouls sufferedContext
14.14
2.43
Yellow cardsContext
2.33
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.54
xGVia Att/Def
0.92
0.99
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.75
-0.54
Goals minus xGContext
+0.18
60%
Scored inContext
50%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.60
ShotsContext
11.00
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.80
32%
On target shareContext
35%
8.30
Shots in the boxContext
7.30
67%
Box shareContext
66%
8%
ConversionContext
10%
2.50
OffsidesContext
2.11
10.50
Shots allowedContext
12.90
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.67
3.10
BlocksContext
3.38
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.33
63%
Save rateContext
77%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
257
PassesContext
313
178
Accurate passesContext
244
69%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.66
Team ratingContext
6.76
15.80
FoulsContext
14.10
9.80
Fouls sufferedContext
13.50
2.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Goztepe
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km277 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Antalyaspor
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel355 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Goztepe |
Antalyaspor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Süper Lig 2025-2026, 18 Apr | 8Süper Lig 2025-2026, 17 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 355 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 277 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 4 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Goztepe
Confirmed XI
1M. Lis(G)
26M. Bokele
4T. Altıkardeş
3Allan
15A. Cherni
8A. Antunes
6M. Mohammed
2A. Kurtulan
10F. Krastev
9Juan
39Janderson
Antalyaspor
Confirmed XI
1Julián(G)
3K. Paal
30L. Giannetti
5B. Öztürk
17E. Yeşilyurt
23Jesper Ceesay
26N. Storm
8R. Safouri
88D. Šarić
70D. Sinik
22S. van de Streek
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Goztepe
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Antalyaspor
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Goztepe+0.2 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Antalyaspor+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Goztepe · Home
1.67points per game · 15 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-7-2
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 0.87
Antalyaspor · Away
0.87points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-4-8
- Scored
- 0.60
- Conceded
- 1.07
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Goztepe | Antalyaspor |
|---|---|---|
| Kocaelispor | D 1–1 AD 0–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| Kasimpasa | D 3–3 HW 2–0 A | D 0–0 AW 2–1 H |
| Galatasaray | L 1–3 HL 1–3 A | L 1–4 H |
| Genclerbirligi | W 2–0 AW 1–0 H | W 2–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Alanyaspor | D 2–2 HL 0–1 A | D 0–0 A |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H | D 0–0 AL 0–4 H |
| Eyüpspor | D 0–0 HD 0–0 A | W 3–0 HW 1–0 A |
| Besiktas | L 0–4 AW 3–0 H | L 2–4 AL 1–3 H |
| Kayserispor | D 0–0 HD 1–1 A | L 0–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Konyaspor | D 0–0 AD 1–1 H | L 0–2 HD 0–0 A |
| Fatih Karagümrük | W 2–1 HW 2–0 A | L 0–1 AL 1–2 H |
| Fenerbahce | D 1–1 AD 0–0 H | D 2–2 HL 0–2 A |
| Rizespor | W 3–1 HW 3–0 A | L 0–1 AL 2–5 H |
| Samsunspor | W 2–0 H | W 3–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | W 1–0 A | L 1–4 HL 2–3 A |
| Trabzonspor | L 1–2 H | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Points | 45 of 87 · 1.55 per game | 28 of 87 · 0.97 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
2 Goztepe wins1 draws0 Antalyaspor wins
Goals per game1.00 – 0.33
Over 2.533%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets67% · 33%
- 30 Nov 2025Antalyaspor1–2Goztepe
- 19 Jan 2025Goztepe1–0Antalyaspor
- 10 Aug 2024Antalyaspor0–0Goztepe
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Goztepe | Antalyaspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.23 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 1.63 | |
| Match goals | 2.13 | 2.63 | 3.05 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 53% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 53% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 23% | |
| Failed to score | 27% | 37% | |
| Games | 30 | 30 |
| Goztepe | Antalyaspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.70 | 3.05 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Goztepe | Antalyaspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.48 | 4.23 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.72 | 5.60 | |
| Match total | 9.20 | 9.83 | 9.41 |
| Over 8.5 | 59% 17/29 | 63% 19/30 | |
| Over 9.5 | 48% 14/29 | 63% 19/30 | |
| Over 10.5 | 31% 9/29 | 47% 14/30 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.57 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.57 | |
| Match total | 4.97 | 4.97 | 4.67 |
| Over 3.5 | 63% 19/30 | 67% 20/30 | |
| Over 4.5 | 47% 14/30 | 50% 15/30 | |
| Goztepe | Antalyaspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.22 | 4.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.22 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 8.44 | 10.90 | 9.41 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.80 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 5.20 | 5.70 | 4.67 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Oguzhan Cakir Türkiye · 20 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.50league 4.45
Red cards0.15league 0.22
Cards 5+35%league 46%
Fouls26.7league 26.1
Penalties0.40league 0.28
Home wins35%league 40%
Goztepe2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.1.5 · 0.5
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- L26 Oct 25A · Galatasaray1–32
- L18 May 25A · Rizespor3–61
Antalyaspor2 with this referee
Record0-2-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 2
- D30 Jan 26H · Trabzonspor1–11
- D8 Dec 25A · Alanyaspor0–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Goztepe30 games · scored 37 · conceded 27
4
5
0-15
5
3
16-30
7
3
31-45
8
5
46-60
5
5
61-75
8
6
76-90
Antalyaspor30 games · scored 30 · conceded 49
3
11
0-15
5
4
16-30
5
7
31-45
5
10
46-60
5
4
61-75
7
13
76-90
Goztepe10 games · scored 10 · conceded 15
2
4
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
2
3
76-90
Antalyaspor10 games · scored 11 · conceded 16
1
4
0-15
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
3
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
