Goztepe
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Besiktas were the stronger side on L90 Strength (34 vs 27). Besiktas usually keep the ball (58% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Goztepe had 5.1 days of rest, Besiktas 6 and had to travel 328 km.
Away travel328 kmRest days5.1 · 6Matches / 14d1 · 1
Goztepe38%
Draw27%
Besiktas35%
Goztepe38%
Draw27%
Besiktas34%
Goztepe38%
Draw27%
Besiktas35%
Goztepe31%
Draw26%
Besiktas42%
Goztepe39%
Draw27%
Besiktas34%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İzmir)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeMehmet Turkmen
- Cards per match 3.0
- Penalties per match 0.00
- Matches 6
Team strength
Goztepe
Besiktas
27
L90 StrengthIn forecast
34
29
Current StrengthIn forecast
50
39
AttackIn forecast
60
36
DefenceIn forecast
48
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBesiktas
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GoztepeBesiktas
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.33
0.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.33
1.06
xGVia Att/Def
2.17
0.95
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.11
+0.34
Goals minus xGContext
-0.84
80%
Scored inContext
67%
60%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
15.00
ShotsContext
17.33
5.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.67
37%
On target shareContext
33%
8.20
Shots in the boxContext
12.67
54%
Box shareContext
73%
9%
ConversionContext
8%
1.80
OffsidesContext
2.67
10.60
Shots allowedContext
10.00
2.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.67
4.50
BlocksContext
2.67
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.33
83%
Save rateContext
64%
40%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
260
PassesContext
463
188
Accurate passesContext
404
72%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.76
18.00
FoulsContext
14.67
9.80
Fouls sufferedContext
8.00
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.67
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.33
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.49
xGVia Att/Def
1.89
1.12
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.82
+0.01
Goals minus xGContext
-0.09
80%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
16.70
ShotsContext
14.90
5.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.10
34%
On target shareContext
34%
10.80
Shots in the boxContext
9.90
63%
Box shareContext
68%
9%
ConversionContext
12%
1.89
OffsidesContext
2.50
11.40
Shots allowedContext
10.70
3.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
3.88
BlocksContext
3.71
1.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.44
58%
Save rateContext
74%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
290
PassesContext
540
214
Accurate passesContext
472
74%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.94
Team ratingContext
7.05
17.30
FoulsContext
12.30
9.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.40
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Goztepe
Rest5.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,452 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Besiktas
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel328 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Goztepe |
Besiktas |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.1Süper Lig 2025-2026, 14 Sep | 6Süper Lig 2025-2026, 13 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 328 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,452 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.9 | 5 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Goztepe
Confirmed XI
1M. Lis(G)
26M. Bokele
5Héliton
3Allan
15A. Cherni
30A. Dennis
6Rhaldney
2A. Kurtulan
10Junior Olaitan
9Juan
39Janderson
Besiktas
Confirmed XI
1F. Günok(G)
39D. Jurásek
14O. Uduokhai
3G. de Abreu
25G. Sazdağı
5D. Tıknaz
20N. Uysal
19E. Touré
27Rafa
18V. Černý
9T. Abraham
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Goztepe
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Besiktas
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Goztepe+0.8 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Besiktas-0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Goztepe · Home
1.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-0
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 0.50
Besiktas · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Goztepe wins1 draws0 Besiktas wins
Goals per game2.50 – 1.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 19 Apr 2025Goztepe1–1Besiktas
- 24 Nov 2024Besiktas2–4Goztepe
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Goztepe | Besiktas | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.40 | 1.33 | |
| Match goals | 1.80 | 2.67 | 2.76 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 67% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 67% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 33% | |
| Games | 5 | 3 |
| Goztepe | Besiktas | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.40 | 1.33 | |
| Match goals | 1.80 | 2.67 | 2.76 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 67% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 67% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 33% | |
| Games | 5 | 3 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Goztepe | Besiktas | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.20 | 8.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.20 | 3.33 | |
| Match total | 9.40 | 11.66 | 9.26 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 3/5 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 3/5 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 1/5 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.80 | 2.33 | |
| Match total | 5.40 | 5.33 | 4.68 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 4/5 | 100% 3/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 2/5 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Goztepe | Besiktas | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.30 | 4.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 9.30 | 9.10 | 9.26 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 3.80 | 4.68 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Mehmet Turkmen Türkiye · 6 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.00league 4.48
Red cards0.00league 0.29
Cards 5+17%league 48%
Fouls21.8league 26.0
Penalties0.00league 0.29
Home wins50%league 38%
Goztepe1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W10 Aug 25A · Rizespor3–01
Besiktas1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D18 May 25A · Alanyaspor1–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Goztepe5 games · scored 7 · conceded 2
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
61-75
3
1
76-90
Besiktas3 games · scored 4 · conceded 4
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
1
76-90
Goztepe10 games · scored 15 · conceded 13
2
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
5
4
76-90
Besiktas10 games · scored 18 · conceded 12
3
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
4
4
31-45
1
1
46-60
4
2
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
