Goztepe
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Goztepe were slight favourites.
Goztepe were the stronger side on L90 Strength (32 vs 18). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Eyüpspor. Goztepe had 6 days of rest, Eyüpspor 7.3 and had to travel 328 km.
Away travel328 kmRest days6 · 7.3Matches / 14d2 · 1
Goztepe52%
Draw26%
Eyüpspor22%
Goztepe55%
Draw24%
Eyüpspor20%
Goztepe52%
Draw26%
Eyüpspor21%
Goztepe45%
Draw28%
Eyüpspor27%
Goztepe54%
Draw25%
Eyüpspor21%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İzmir)
No weather data yet
RefereeBatuhan Kolak
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.27
- Matches 11
Team strength
Goztepe
Eyüpspor
32
L90 StrengthIn forecast
18
29
Current StrengthIn forecast
13
39
AttackIn forecast
9
36
DefenceIn forecast
10
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisEyüpspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GoztepeEyüpspor
1.17
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.83
0.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.52
1.08
xGVia Att/Def
0.97
1.01
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.56
+0.09
Goals minus xGContext
-0.14
70%
Scored inContext
57%
57%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
12.96
ShotsContext
10.65
4.45
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.82
33%
On target shareContext
34%
8.26
Shots in the boxContext
6.73
63%
Box shareContext
60%
9%
ConversionContext
8%
1.85
OffsidesContext
2.48
11.91
Shots allowedContext
14.26
3.64
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.09
3.64
BlocksContext
4.29
2.95
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.95
81%
Save rateContext
72%
38%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
247
PassesContext
378
171
Accurate passesContext
309
69%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.77
16.83
FoulsContext
11.52
9.35
Fouls sufferedContext
14.52
2.26
Yellow cardsContext
2.13
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.04
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
0.93
xGVia Att/Def
1.04
1.16
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.75
+0.27
Goals minus xGContext
+0.16
70%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
13.30
ShotsContext
10.60
4.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.44
35%
On target shareContext
38%
8.80
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
65%
Box shareContext
64%
9%
ConversionContext
11%
1.88
OffsidesContext
1.80
12.40
Shots allowedContext
16.40
4.22
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.20
3.90
BlocksContext
5.00
3.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.30
74%
Save rateContext
69%
39%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
252
PassesContext
370
174
Accurate passesContext
301
69%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.75
17.00
FoulsContext
12.10
9.40
Fouls sufferedContext
13.40
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Goztepe
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km656 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Eyüpspor
Rest7.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel328 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Goztepe |
Eyüpspor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Süper Lig 2025-2026, 22 Feb | 7.3Süper Lig 2025-2026, 21 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 328 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 656 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.8 | 8.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Goztepe
Confirmed XI
1M. Lis(G)
3Allan
5Héliton
4T. Altıkardeş
15A. Cherni
20N. Miroshi
10F. Krastev
2A. Kurtulan
8A. Antunes
9Juan
39Janderson
Eyüpspor
Confirmed XI
24J. Yılmaz(G)
77C. Meraş
5B. Ozyurt
68J. Onguéné
17Talha Ülvan
20M. Łęgowski
28T. İlter
55B. Gezek
23L. Pintor
19U. Bozok
10Á. Torres
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Goztepe
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Eyüpspor
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Goztepe+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Eyüpspor+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Goztepe · Home
2.00points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-4-1
- Scored
- 1.27
- Conceded
- 0.45
Eyüpspor · Away
0.73points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-7
- Scored
- 0.73
- Conceded
- 1.64
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Goztepe | Eyüpspor |
|---|---|---|
| Besiktas | L 0–4 AW 3–0 H | D 2–2 HL 1–2 A |
| Kayserispor | D 0–0 HD 1–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Konyaspor | D 0–0 AD 1–1 H | D 1–1 AL 1–4 H |
| Fatih Karagümrük | W 2–1 HW 2–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| Fenerbahce | D 1–1 AD 0–0 H | L 0–3 H |
| Rizespor | W 3–1 HW 3–0 A | L 0–3 A |
| Samsunspor | W 2–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | W 1–0 A | W 2–1 A |
| Trabzonspor | L 1–2 H | L 0–2 A |
| Antalyaspor | W 2–1 A | L 0–1 H |
| Kocaelispor | D 0–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Kasimpasa | W 2–0 A | W 2–0 H |
| Genclerbirligi | W 1–0 H | W 1–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Galatasaray | L 1–3 A | L 1–5 AL 0–2 H |
| Alanyaspor | L 0–1 A | W 3–1 AW 2–1 H |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | W 1–0 H | L 1–2 HD 0–0 A |
| Points | 40 of 66 · 1.82 per game | 20 of 66 · 0.91 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
0 Goztepe wins2 draws1 Eyüpspor wins
Goals per game0.33 – 0.67
Over 2.50%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets33% · 67%
- 27 Sep 2025Eyüpspor0–0Goztepe
- 16 Mar 2025Goztepe1–1Eyüpspor
- 19 Oct 2024Eyüpspor1–0Goztepe
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Goztepe | Eyüpspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.17 | 0.83 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.70 | 1.52 | |
| Match goals | 1.87 | 2.35 | 2.58 |
| Over 1.5 | 61% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 35% | 43% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 13% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 35% | 48% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 57% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 43% | |
| Games | 23 | 23 |
| Goztepe | Eyüpspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.90 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 3.10 | 2.58 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 70% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Goztepe | Eyüpspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.57 | 4.15 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 5.40 | |
| Match total | 9.57 | 9.55 | 9.34 |
| Over 8.5 | 65% 15/23 | 50% 10/20 | |
| Over 9.5 | 52% 12/23 | 40% 8/20 | |
| Over 10.5 | 35% 8/23 | 30% 6/20 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.43 | 2.22 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 1.91 | |
| Match total | 4.73 | 4.13 | 4.68 |
| Over 3.5 | 61% 14/23 | 52% 12/23 | |
| Over 4.5 | 43% 10/23 | 35% 8/23 | |
| Goztepe | Eyüpspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.70 | 3.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.20 | 5.44 | |
| Match total | 9.90 | 8.88 | 9.34 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 4.90 | 3.70 | 4.68 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Batuhan Kolak 11 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.45league 4.45
Red cards0.18league 0.22
Cards 5+36%league 46%
Fouls25.9league 26.0
Penalties0.27league 0.26
Home wins36%league 38%
Goztepe3 with this referee
Record2-0-1
Cards · opp.2.7 · 1.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W22 Aug 25A · Fatih Karagümrük2–02
- L24 May 25H · Galatasaray0–23
- W4 May 25A · Adana Demirspor2–13
Eyüpspor2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L13 Sep 25H · Galatasaray0–22
- L10 Aug 25H · Konyaspor1–42
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Goztepe23 games · scored 27 · conceded 16
2
2
0-15
4
2
16-30
5
2
31-45
6
4
46-60
4
3
61-75
6
3
76-90
Eyüpspor23 games · scored 19 · conceded 35
3
6
0-15
1
3
16-30
5
31-45
5
4
46-60
4
5
61-75
6
12
76-90
Goztepe10 games · scored 12 · conceded 10
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
3
1
61-75
2
1
76-90
Eyüpspor10 games · scored 12 · conceded 19
1
4
0-15
1
16-30
3
31-45
4
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
5
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
