Goztepe
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Galatasaray were slight favourites.
Galatasaray were the stronger side on L90 Strength (71 vs 32). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Goztepe. Goztepe had 4.2 days of rest, Galatasaray 4 and had to travel 328 km.
Away travel328 kmRest days4.2 · 4Matches / 14d1 · 1
Goztepe30%
Draw26%
Galatasaray44%
Goztepe22%
Draw25%
Galatasaray53%
Goztepe29%
Draw26%
Galatasaray45%
Goztepe23%
Draw24%
Galatasaray52%
Goztepe31%
Draw26%
Galatasaray43%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İzmir)
No weather data yet
RefereeAlper Akarsu
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.37
- Matches 27
Team strength
Goztepe
Galatasaray
32
L90 StrengthIn forecast
71
29
Current StrengthIn forecast
62
39
AttackIn forecast
57
36
DefenceIn forecast
55
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGalatasaray
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GoztepeGalatasaray
1.19
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.33
0.74
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.74
1.23
xGVia Att/Def
1.94
0.98
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.92
-0.04
Goals minus xGContext
+0.39
70%
Scored inContext
89%
56%
Clean sheetsContext
41%
13.11
ShotsContext
16.22
4.54
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.52
33%
On target shareContext
34%
8.52
Shots in the boxContext
11.48
65%
Box shareContext
70%
9%
ConversionContext
14%
1.96
OffsidesContext
2.20
11.56
Shots allowedContext
9.85
3.63
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.46
3.65
BlocksContext
2.88
2.83
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.83
78%
Save rateContext
79%
39%
PossessionIn forecast
62%
248
PassesContext
497
171
Accurate passesContext
435
69%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.80
Team ratingContext
7.06
16.63
FoulsContext
12.26
9.41
Fouls sufferedContext
10.04
2.37
Yellow cardsContext
1.93
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.04
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.10
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.36
xGVia Att/Def
1.71
1.05
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.82
-0.26
Goals minus xGContext
+0.39
60%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
13.10
ShotsContext
14.20
4.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.10
33%
On target shareContext
36%
8.70
Shots in the boxContext
9.90
67%
Box shareContext
69%
8%
ConversionContext
15%
2.25
OffsidesContext
3.13
11.30
Shots allowedContext
14.70
4.13
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.70
3.80
BlocksContext
3.40
2.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.56
67%
Save rateContext
75%
39%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
250
PassesContext
443
172
Accurate passesContext
374
69%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.90
16.40
FoulsContext
11.50
9.80
Fouls sufferedContext
12.60
2.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Goztepe
Rest4.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,041 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Galatasaray
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel328 km1,807 km in 14d
Schedule load11%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Goztepe |
Galatasaray |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 11 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.2Süper Lig 2025-2026, 4 Apr | 4Süper Lig 2025-2026, 4 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 328 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,041 km | 1,807 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.9 | 4 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Goztepe
Confirmed XI
1M. Lis(G)
4T. Altıkardeş
5Héliton
3Allan
15A. Cherni
20N. Miroshi
30A. Dennis
2A. Kurtulan
11Efkan Bekiroğlu
9Juan
39Janderson
Galatasaray
Confirmed XI
1U. Çakır(G)
17E. Elmalı
90W. Singo
6D. Sánchez
93S. Boey
20İ. Gündoğan
99M. Lemina
7R. Sallai
22Y. Asprilla
10L. Sané
53B. Yılmaz
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Goztepe
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Galatasaray
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Goztepe+1.1 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Galatasaray-0.9 pp
Home / Away this season
Goztepe · Home
1.85points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-6-1
- Scored
- 1.23
- Conceded
- 0.54
Galatasaray · Away
2.15points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 9-1-3
- Scored
- 1.92
- Conceded
- 0.69
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Goztepe | Galatasaray |
|---|---|---|
| Genclerbirligi | W 2–0 AW 1–0 H | W 3–2 H |
| Alanyaspor | D 2–2 HL 0–1 A | W 3–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H | W 3–0 HW 2–1 A |
| Eyüpspor | D 0–0 HD 0–0 A | W 5–1 HW 2–0 A |
| Besiktas | L 0–4 AW 3–0 H | W 1–0 AD 1–1 H |
| Kayserispor | D 0–0 HD 1–1 A | W 4–0 HW 4–0 A |
| Konyaspor | D 0–0 AD 1–1 H | L 0–2 AW 3–1 H |
| Fatih Karagümrük | W 2–1 HW 2–0 A | W 3–1 AW 3–0 H |
| Fenerbahce | D 1–1 AD 0–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Rizespor | W 3–1 HW 3–0 A | W 3–0 AW 3–1 H |
| Samsunspor | W 2–0 H | W 3–2 H |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | W 1–0 A | D 1–1 HW 3–0 A |
| Trabzonspor | L 1–2 H | L 1–2 AD 0–0 H |
| Antalyaspor | W 2–1 A | W 4–1 A |
| Kocaelispor | D 0–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Kasimpasa | W 2–0 A | W 3–0 H |
| Points | 46 of 78 · 1.77 per game | 61 of 78 · 2.35 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
0 Goztepe wins0 draws3 Galatasaray wins
Goals per game0.67 – 2.33
Over 2.567%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets0% · 33%
- 26 Oct 2025Galatasaray3–1Goztepe
- 24 May 2025Goztepe0–2Galatasaray
- 4 Jan 2025Galatasaray2–1Goztepe
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Goztepe | Galatasaray | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.19 | 2.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.74 | 0.74 | |
| Match goals | 1.93 | 3.07 | 2.88 |
| Over 1.5 | 63% | 85% | |
| Over 2.5 | 37% | 67% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 15% | 41% | |
| Both teams scored | 37% | 52% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 56% | 41% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 11% | |
| Games | 27 | 27 |
| Goztepe | Galatasaray | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 2.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 3.20 | 2.88 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 70% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Goztepe | Galatasaray | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.59 | 5.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.93 | 3.56 | |
| Match total | 9.52 | 9.16 | 9.44 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 17/27 | 52% 13/25 | |
| Over 9.5 | 52% 14/27 | 52% 13/25 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 9/27 | 36% 9/25 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.52 | 2.04 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.26 | 2.37 | |
| Match total | 4.78 | 4.41 | 4.67 |
| Over 3.5 | 63% 17/27 | 48% 13/27 | |
| Over 4.5 | 44% 12/27 | 44% 12/27 | |
| Goztepe | Galatasaray | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.40 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 9.90 | 11.00 | 9.44 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.80 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 5.10 | 4.67 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Alper Akarsu 27 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.26league 4.44
Red cards0.11league 0.22
Cards 5+44%league 45%
Fouls23.3league 26.1
Penalties0.37league 0.28
Home wins41%league 40%
Goztepe3 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- D15 Feb 26H · Kayserispor0–02
- L4 Jan 25A · Galatasaray1–22
- W24 Nov 24A · Besiktas4–20
Galatasaray3 with this referee
Record3-0-0
Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.7
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W21 Dec 25H · Kasimpasa3–02
- W24 Aug 25A · Kayserispor4–02
- W4 Jan 25H · Goztepe2–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Goztepe27 games · scored 32 · conceded 20
3
4
0-15
4
2
16-30
7
2
31-45
7
4
46-60
5
4
61-75
6
4
76-90
Galatasaray27 games · scored 63 · conceded 20
9
3
0-15
9
2
16-30
7
1
31-45
11
3
46-60
13
6
61-75
14
5
76-90
Goztepe10 games · scored 11 · conceded 11
1
4
0-15
2
1
16-30
4
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
1
1
76-90
Galatasaray10 games · scored 21 · conceded 15
3
1
0-15
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
6
3
46-60
3
5
61-75
6
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
