Goztepe
Attack—
Defense risk—
Goztepe
5th · 52 pts · 32 played
LDDWD
2–1Full time
Gazişehir Gaziantep
11th · 37 pts · 32 played
DLWLL
Our take
Goztepe were slight favourites.
Goztepe were the stronger side on L90 Strength (31 vs 18). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Goztepe. Goztepe had 7 days of rest, Gazişehir Gaziantep 8 and had to travel 913 km.
Away travel913 kmRest days7 · 8Matches / 14d2 · 1
Goztepe58%
Draw23%
Gazişehir Gaziantep19%
Goztepe55%
Draw25%
Gazişehir Gaziantep21%
Goztepe59%
Draw23%
Gazişehir Gaziantep18%
Goztepe50%
Draw25%
Gazişehir Gaziantep25%
Goztepe59%
Draw22%
Gazişehir Gaziantep18%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İzmir)
No weather data yet
RefereeBatuhan Kolak
- Cards per match 4.8
- Penalties per match 0.41
- Matches 17
Team strength
GoztepeGazişehir Gaziantep
31
L90 StrengthIn forecast
18
29
Current StrengthIn forecast
16
39
AttackIn forecast
15
36
DefenceIn forecast
18
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGazişehir Gaziantep
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GoztepeGazişehir Gaziantep
1.25
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.28
0.88
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.69
1.31
xGVia Att/Def
1.30
0.99
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.40
-0.06
Goals minus xGContext
-0.02
75%
Scored inContext
72%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
19%
13.31
ShotsContext
12.88
4.58
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.55
33%
On target shareContext
34%
8.78
Shots in the boxContext
7.88
66%
Box shareContext
60%
9%
ConversionContext
10%
2.04
OffsidesContext
1.75
11.63
Shots allowedContext
13.56
3.62
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.06
3.48
BlocksContext
3.53
2.79
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.39
77%
Save rateContext
65%
38%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
246
PassesContext
376
170
Accurate passesContext
311
69%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.80
16.97
FoulsContext
12.91
9.44
Fouls sufferedContext
15.91
2.47
Yellow cardsContext
2.81
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.13
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.78
xGVia Att/Def
1.30
0.96
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.21
-0.48
Goals minus xGContext
-0.10
80%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
13.60
ShotsContext
12.80
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.56
33%
On target shareContext
39%
9.40
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
69%
Box shareContext
62%
10%
ConversionContext
9%
2.75
OffsidesContext
1.88
11.00
Shots allowedContext
13.60
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.20
3.10
BlocksContext
4.10
2.38
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.60
59%
Save rateContext
69%
39%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
246
PassesContext
371
170
Accurate passesContext
308
69%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.69
Team ratingContext
6.83
17.30
FoulsContext
12.30
10.10
Fouls sufferedContext
14.00
2.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Goztepe
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km2,227 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Gazişehir Gaziantep
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel913 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Goztepe |
Gazişehir Gaziantep |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Süper Lig 2025-2026, 2 May | 8Süper Lig 2025-2026, 1 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 913 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,227 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 0 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Goztepe
Confirmed XI
1M. Lis(G)
26M. Bokele
5Héliton
3Allan
15A. Cherni
20N. Miroshi
30A. Dennis
2A. Kurtulan
8A. Antunes
9Juan
19Jeh
Gazişehir Gaziantep
Confirmed XI
71M. Bozan(G)
4A. Kızıldağ
14L. Abena
30N. Sangaré
77K. Rodrigues
44A. Maxim
8V. Gidado
18D. Sorescu
10K. Kozłowski
3D. Camara
9M. Bayo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Goztepe
Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Gazişehir Gaziantep
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Goztepe-0.7 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- Gazişehir Gaziantep+0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Goztepe · Home
1.75points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-7-2
- Scored
- 1.38
- Conceded
- 0.81
Gazişehir Gaziantep · Away
1.06points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-5-7
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 1.81
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Goztepe | Gazişehir Gaziantep |
|---|---|---|
| Trabzonspor | D 1–1 AL 1–2 H | L 1–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Antalyaspor | W 2–0 HW 2–1 A | W 4–1 AW 3–2 H |
| Kocaelispor | D 1–1 AD 0–0 H | L 0–3 AW 2–0 H |
| Kasimpasa | D 3–3 HW 2–0 A | W 2–1 HW 3–2 A |
| Galatasaray | L 1–3 HL 1–3 A | D 1–1 AL 0–3 H |
| Genclerbirligi | W 2–0 AW 1–0 H | L 1–2 AW 2–1 H |
| Alanyaspor | D 2–2 HL 0–1 A | D 1–1 HD 0–0 A |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H | L 1–5 A |
| Eyüpspor | D 0–0 HD 0–0 A | L 0–3 AL 1–2 H |
| Besiktas | L 0–4 AW 3–0 H | L 0–2 HD 2–2 A |
| Kayserispor | D 0–0 HD 1–1 A | W 3–0 HW 3–0 A |
| Konyaspor | D 0–0 AD 1–1 H | D 1–1 HL 0–3 A |
| Fatih Karagümrük | W 2–1 HW 2–0 A | D 1–1 HW 2–0 A |
| Fenerbahce | D 1–1 AD 0–0 H | L 1–4 AL 0–4 H |
| Rizespor | W 3–1 HW 3–0 A | L 1–2 AD 2–2 H |
| Samsunspor | W 2–0 H | D 0–0 AD 2–2 H |
| Points | 49 of 93 · 1.58 per game | 37 of 93 · 1.19 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 Goztepe wins1 draws1 Gazişehir Gaziantep wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.00
Over 2.533%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets33% · 0%
- 14 Dec 2025Gazişehir Gaziantep0–1Goztepe
- 7 Apr 2025Goztepe1–1Gazişehir Gaziantep
- 1 Nov 2024Gazişehir Gaziantep2–1Goztepe
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Goztepe | Gazişehir Gaziantep | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.25 | 1.28 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.88 | 1.69 | |
| Match goals | 2.13 | 2.97 | 2.92 |
| Over 1.5 | 69% | 91% | |
| Over 2.5 | 38% | 66% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 19% | 28% | |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 59% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 19% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 28% | |
| Games | 32 | 32 |
| Goztepe | Gazişehir Gaziantep | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 2.80 | 2.92 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Goztepe | Gazişehir Gaziantep | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.42 | 5.06 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.61 | 5.10 | |
| Match total | 9.03 | 10.16 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 55% 17/31 | 58% 18/31 | |
| Over 9.5 | 45% 14/31 | 45% 14/31 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 9/31 | 42% 13/31 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.59 | 2.97 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.44 | 2.84 | |
| Match total | 5.03 | 5.81 | 4.64 |
| Over 3.5 | 63% 20/32 | 84% 27/32 | |
| Over 4.5 | 47% 15/32 | 72% 23/32 | |
| Goztepe | Gazişehir Gaziantep | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 5.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.11 | 5.80 | |
| Match total | 8.11 | 11.00 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 3/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.80 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.70 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 5.50 | 3.90 | 4.64 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Batuhan Kolak 17 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.65league 4.43
Red cards0.18league 0.22
Cards 5+41%league 45%
Fouls26.2league 26.0
Penalties0.41league 0.28
Home wins35%league 41%
Goztepe5 with this referee
Record3-1-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.6
Pens for · against3 · 0
- W4 Apr 26A · Genclerbirligi2–04
- D28 Feb 26H · Eyüpspor0–03
- W22 Aug 25A · Fatih Karagümrük2–02
- L24 May 25H · Galatasaray0–23
- W4 May 25A · Adana Demirspor2–13
Gazişehir Gaziantep1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 6.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D27 Sep 25H · Samsunspor2–23
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Goztepe32 games · scored 40 · conceded 28
5
5
0-15
6
3
16-30
8
3
31-45
8
5
46-60
5
5
61-75
8
7
76-90
Gazişehir Gaziantep32 games · scored 41 · conceded 54
4
7
0-15
7
11
16-30
9
5
31-45
4
4
46-60
11
9
61-75
6
18
76-90
Goztepe10 games · scored 13 · conceded 16
3
4
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
2
4
76-90
Gazişehir Gaziantep10 games · scored 12 · conceded 16
1
0-15
3
3
16-30
1
2
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
4
61-75
3
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
