Süper Lig Gameweek 4 Mon, Sep 7 · 18:00 Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı, İzmir
Goztepe 17th · 1 pts · 3 played
2–4Full time
Gazişehir Gaziantep 12th · 4 pts · 3 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

Goztepe were slight favourites.

Goztepe were the stronger side on L90 Strength (28 vs 17). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Gazişehir Gaziantep. Goztepe had 8.9 days of rest, Gazişehir Gaziantep 8.9 and had to travel 913 km.

Away travel913 kmRest days8.9 · 8.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Goztepe52%
Draw23%
Gazişehir Gaziantep25%
Expected goals 1.77 – 1.16
Goztepe54%
Draw24%
Gazişehir Gaziantep22%
Expected goals 1.74 – 1.03
Goztepe52%
Draw24%
Gazişehir Gaziantep24%
Expected goals 1.75 – 1.11
Goztepe44%
Draw25%
Gazişehir Gaziantep32%
Expected goals 1.58 – 1.30
Goztepe53%
Draw23%
Gazişehir Gaziantep24%
Expected goals 1.85 – 1.19
Over 2.5 56% Both score 57% Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İzmir)

No weather data yet

Referee—Not recorded

Team strength

GoztepeGazişehir Gaziantep
28 L90 StrengthIn forecast 17
29 Current StrengthIn forecast 16
39 AttackIn forecast 15
36 DefenceIn forecast 18
22 Form indexContext 33
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Goztepe

Attack—
Defense risk—

Gazişehir Gaziantep

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

GoztepeGazişehir Gaziantep
1.67 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00
2.33 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00
1.42 xGVia Att/Def 1.08
2.41 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.97
+0.25 Goals minus xGContext -0.08
67% Scored inContext 100%
0% Clean sheetsContext 33%
15.00 ShotsContext 12.67
5.67 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.67
38% On target shareContext 29%
11.33 Shots in the boxContext 7.00
76% Box shareContext 56%
11% ConversionContext 8%
2.67 OffsidesContext 3.33
21.67 Shots allowedContext 11.00
5.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.33
7.00 BlocksContext 2.67
4.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 1.33
69% Save rateContext 57%
38% PossessionIn forecast 54%
274 PassesContext 462
181 Accurate passesContext 387
66% Pass accuracyContext 84%
6.71 Team ratingContext 6.95
13.33 FoulsContext 13.67
8.33 Fouls sufferedContext 18.00
2.33 Yellow cardsContext 1.67
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.33
This league season, per match · 3 and 3 games
1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00
1.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50
1.73 xGVia Att/Def 1.08
1.49 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.35
-0.23 Goals minus xGContext -0.08
80% Scored inContext 80%
10% Clean sheetsContext 20%
15.80 ShotsContext 13.10
5.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.20
33% On target shareContext 32%
11.80 Shots in the boxContext 7.90
74% Box shareContext 60%
10% ConversionContext 8%
2.56 OffsidesContext 2.11
15.00 Shots allowedContext 13.10
4.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.40
3.90 BlocksContext 3.30
3.11 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00
68% Save rateContext 68%
38% PossessionIn forecast 51%
245 PassesContext 422
167 Accurate passesContext 354
68% Pass accuracyContext 84%
6.74 Team ratingContext 6.85
16.90 FoulsContext 11.90
9.20 Fouls sufferedContext 16.10
2.70 Yellow cardsContext 2.00
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Goztepe
Rest8.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km656 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 22 · 1 pts vs 4.6 for an average club · -2.6 vs expected
  • L29 AugA · Galatasaray2–30.5 xPts
  • L23 AugH · Genclerbirligi0–12.0 xPts
  • D17 AugA · Samsunspor3–31.1 xPts
Gazişehir Gaziantep
Rest8.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel913 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Form 33 · 4 pts vs 6.0 for an average club · +0.0 vs expected
  • L29 AugH · Rizespor1–21.4 xPts
  • W23 AugA · Eyüpspor1–01.1 xPts
  • D15 AugH · Alanyaspor1–11.5 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Goztepe Gazişehir Gaziantep
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match8.9Süper Lig 2026-2027, 29 Aug8.9Süper Lig 2026-2027, 29 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km913 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways656 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 1 / 30 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one57

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Goztepe Confirmed XI
3-4-1-2
25L. Gugeshashvili(G)
26M. Bokele 13E. Yildirim 4T. Altıkardeş
12R. Akonnor 20N. Miroshi 5Rhaldney 2A. Kurtulan
7André Henrique
9Juan 39Janderson
+5 more reported missing outside this XI
Gazişehir Gaziantep Confirmed XI
4-1-4-1
25K. Tobiasz(G)
23K. Çalhanoğlu 14L. Abena 4A. Kızıldağ 2Luis Pérez
6U. Meleke
10K. Kozłowski 44A. Maxim 8V. Gidado 18D. Sorescu
28H. Dervişoğlu
+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Goztepe Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Gazişehir Gaziantep Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
  • Goztepe-0.9 pp
  • Draw-0.1 pp
  • Gazişehir Gaziantep+1.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Goztepe · Home 0.00points per game · 1 home games
W-D-L
0-0-1
Scored
0.00
Conceded
1.00
Gazişehir Gaziantep · Away 3.00points per game · 1 away games
W-D-L
1-0-0
Scored
1.00
Conceded
0.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

2 Goztepe wins1 draws1 Gazişehir Gaziantep wins
Goals per game1.25 – 1.00 Over 2.550% Both scored75% Clean sheets25% · 0%
  • 9 May 2026Goztepe2–1Gazişehir Gaziantep
  • 14 Dec 2025Gazişehir Gaziantep0–1Goztepe
  • 7 Apr 2025Goztepe1–1Gazişehir Gaziantep
  • 1 Nov 2024Gazişehir Gaziantep2–1Goztepe

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

GoztepeGazişehir GaziantepForecast
Scored per game 1.671.00
Conceded per game 2.331.00
Match goals 4.002.00 2.93
Over 1.5 67%67%
Over 2.5 67%33% 56%
Over 3.5 67%0%
Both teams scored 67%67% 57%
Clean sheets 0%33%
Failed to score 33%0%
Games33
GoztepeGazişehir GaziantepForecast
Scored per game 1.501.00
Conceded per game 1.901.50
Match goals 3.402.50 2.93
Over 1.5 90%90%
Over 2.5 60%60% 56%
Over 3.5 40%0%
Both teams scored 70%60% 57%
Clean sheets 10%20%
Failed to score 20%20%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

GoztepeGazişehir GaziantepLeague
Corners
Corners won5.332.00
Corners conceded5.004.00
Match total10.336.009.06
Over 8.567% 2/30% 0/1
Over 9.567% 2/30% 0/1
Over 10.567% 2/30% 0/1
Cards
Cards2.332.00
Opponent cards1.671.67
Match total4.003.673.71
Over 3.567% 2/333% 1/3
Over 4.533% 1/333% 1/3
GoztepeGazişehir GaziantepLeague
Corners
Corners won4.634.38
Corners conceded3.884.50
Match total8.518.889.06
Over 8.538% 3/863% 5/8
Over 9.538% 3/838% 3/8
Over 10.538% 3/825% 2/8
Cards
Cards2.802.10
Opponent cards2.701.90
Match total5.504.003.71
Over 3.570% 7/1070% 7/10
Over 4.550% 5/1040% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Goztepe3 games · scored 5 · conceded 7
1 0-15
1 1 16-30
2 31-45
1 2 46-60
2 1 61-75
1 76-90
Gazişehir Gaziantep3 games · scored 3 · conceded 3
1 0-15
1 16-30
1 31-45
1 46-60
1 61-75
1 76-90
Goztepe10 games · scored 15 · conceded 19
4 1 0-15
3 2 16-30
1 4 31-45
2 4 46-60
2 2 61-75
3 6 76-90
Gazişehir Gaziantep10 games · scored 10 · conceded 15
4 0-15
2 3 16-30
1 2 31-45
3 46-60
2 2 61-75
2 4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures Süper Lig

View all fixtures →
Istanbul Basaksehir Galatasaray 23 Erzurumspor FK Konyaspor 10 Fenerbahce Besiktas 12 Kasimpasa Amed 22 Çorum FK Eyüpspor 30 Trabzonspor Genclerbirligi 50 Kocaelispor Samsunspor 10 Goztepe Gazişehir Gaziantep 24 Rizespor Alanyaspor 01