Goztepe
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Goztepe were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Goztepe had 14.8 days of rest, Kocaelispor 13.9 and had to travel 139 km.
Away travel139 kmRest days14.8 · 13.9Matches / 14d0 · 1
Goztepe46%
Draw27%
Kocaelispor27%
Goztepe47%
Draw26%
Kocaelispor27%
Goztepe46%
Draw27%
Kocaelispor27%
Goztepe38%
Draw28%
Kocaelispor34%
Goztepe47%
Draw26%
Kocaelispor27%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İzmir)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeAli Yilmaz
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.40
- Matches 10
Team strength
Goztepe
Kocaelispor
31
L90 StrengthIn forecast
26
29
Current StrengthIn forecast
22
39
AttackIn forecast
16
36
DefenceIn forecast
32
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisKocaelispor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GoztepeKocaelispor
1.25
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.92
0.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.25
1.27
xGVia Att/Def
0.84
0.94
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.08
-0.02
Goals minus xGContext
+0.08
75%
Scored inContext
67%
67%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
13.08
ShotsContext
9.50
4.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.42
33%
On target shareContext
36%
8.08
Shots in the boxContext
5.83
62%
Box shareContext
59%
10%
ConversionContext
10%
1.83
OffsidesContext
2.00
11.67
Shots allowedContext
12.25
3.25
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.58
3.45
BlocksContext
3.67
2.83
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.80
87%
Save rateContext
68%
37%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
243
PassesContext
330
168
Accurate passesContext
258
69%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.70
16.75
FoulsContext
14.75
9.50
Fouls sufferedContext
13.42
2.08
Yellow cardsContext
2.58
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.17
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
0.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.38
xGVia Att/Def
0.80
0.80
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.12
-0.18
Goals minus xGContext
+0.30
80%
Scored inContext
80%
60%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.90
ShotsContext
9.20
4.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
36%
On target shareContext
38%
8.20
Shots in the boxContext
5.40
64%
Box shareContext
57%
9%
ConversionContext
12%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.00
11.50
Shots allowedContext
12.30
3.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.70
3.11
BlocksContext
4.00
3.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.56
87%
Save rateContext
64%
36%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
237
PassesContext
340
163
Accurate passesContext
268
69%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.72
16.30
FoulsContext
15.30
9.30
Fouls sufferedContext
13.90
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Goztepe
Rest14.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Kocaelispor
Rest13.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel139 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Goztepe |
Kocaelispor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14.8Süper Lig 2025-2026, 8 Nov | 13.9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 9 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 139 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 5.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Goztepe
Confirmed XI
1M. Lis(G)
26M. Bokele
5Héliton
4T. Altıkardeş
15A. Cherni
20N. Miroshi
30A. Dennis
13Ruan
11Efkan Bekiroğlu
9Juan
39Janderson
Kocaelispor
Confirmed XI
1A. Jovanovic
21M. Haïdara
6H. Smolčić
5B. Balogh
22A. Oğuz
10K. Linetty
8H. Keïta
7Daniel Agyei
75T. Bingöl
70C. Keles
19S. Dursun
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Goztepe
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Kocaelispor
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Goztepe-0.2 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Kocaelispor+0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Goztepe · Home
2.20points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-0
- Scored
- 1.20
- Conceded
- 0.20
Kocaelispor · Away
0.50points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-5
- Scored
- 0.83
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 9 this season
| Opponent | Goztepe | Kocaelispor |
|---|---|---|
| Galatasaray | L 1–3 A | W 1–0 H |
| Alanyaspor | L 0–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | W 1–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Eyüpspor | D 0–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| Besiktas | W 3–0 H | L 1–3 A |
| Kayserispor | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Konyaspor | D 1–1 H | W 3–2 A |
| Fenerbahce | D 0–0 H | L 1–3 A |
| Rizespor | W 3–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| Points | 13 of 27 · 1.44 per game | 14 of 27 · 1.56 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Goztepe | Kocaelispor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.25 | 0.92 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 1.25 | |
| Match goals | 1.75 | 2.17 | 2.63 |
| Over 1.5 | 58% | 58% | |
| Over 2.5 | 25% | 25% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 8% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 42% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 33% | |
| Games | 12 | 12 |
| Goztepe | Kocaelispor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.60 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 1.80 | 2.40 | 2.63 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 30% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Goztepe | Kocaelispor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 4.45 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.75 | 4.18 | |
| Match total | 9.25 | 8.63 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 58% 7/12 | 55% 6/11 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 6/12 | 36% 4/11 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 3/12 | 27% 3/11 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.33 | 2.75 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.17 | 2.42 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 5.17 | 4.85 |
| Over 3.5 | 58% 7/12 | 75% 9/12 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 4/12 | 67% 8/12 | |
| Goztepe | Kocaelispor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.60 | 4.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.90 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 8.44 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 5.50 | 4.85 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ali Yilmaz Türkiye · 10 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.50league 4.55
Red cards0.10league 0.27
Cards 5+60%league 50%
Fouls25.5league 26.1
Penalties0.40league 0.26
Home wins50%league 39%
Goztepe1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.5.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L19 Oct 25A · Alanyaspor0–15
KocaelisporNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Goztepe12 games · scored 15 · conceded 6
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
31-45
4
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
4
2
76-90
Kocaelispor12 games · scored 11 · conceded 15
3
0-15
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
3
6
76-90
Goztepe10 games · scored 12 · conceded 6
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
31-45
3
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
Kocaelispor10 games · scored 11 · conceded 13
3
0-15
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
3
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
