Goztepe vs Samsunspor – 21 Dec 2025

Süper Lig Gameweek 17 Sun, Dec 21 · 17:00 Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu, İzmir

Goztepe 4th · 29 pts · 16 played WDWLW

2–0Full time

Samsunspor 6th · 25 pts · 16 played WDDLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Goztepe were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Goztepe had 7.2 days of rest, Samsunspor 7 and had to travel 847 km.

Away travel847 kmRest days7.2 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 1

Goztepe43%

Draw27%

Samsunspor30%

Expected goals 1.46 – 1.19

Goztepe44%

Draw27%

Samsunspor29%

Expected goals 1.51 – 1.19

Goztepe43%

Draw27%

Samsunspor30%

Expected goals 1.46 – 1.18

Goztepe36%

Draw28%

Samsunspor37%

Expected goals 1.30 – 1.33

Goztepe44%

Draw27%

Samsunspor30%

Expected goals 1.50 – 1.20

Over 2.5 49% Both score 54% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (İzmir)

No weather data yet

RefereeYasin Kol

Cards per match 5.8
Penalties per match 0.32
Matches 28

Team strength

Goztepe

Samsunspor

31 L90 StrengthIn forecast 31

29 Current StrengthIn forecast 23

39 AttackIn forecast 15

36 DefenceIn forecast 18

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Goztepe

Attack—

Defense risk—

Samsunspor

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Goztepe

Samsunspor

1.19 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.38

0.56 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.13

1.16 xGVia Att/Def 1.39

0.97 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.90

+0.03 Goals minus xGContext -0.01

75% Scored inContext 81%

63% Clean sheetsContext 25%

13.31 ShotsContext 12.81

4.87 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.25

34% On target shareContext 33%

8.50 Shots in the boxContext 7.75

64% Box shareContext 60%

9% ConversionContext 11%

1.80 OffsidesContext 2.08

12.13 Shots allowedContext 11.75

3.38 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.56

3.67 BlocksContext 3.07

2.88 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.93

85% Save rateContext 75%

39% PossessionIn forecast 50%

245 PassesContext 393

171 Accurate passesContext 323

70% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.84 Team ratingContext 6.79

16.81 FoulsContext 14.81

9.31 Fouls sufferedContext 10.25

2.19 Yellow cardsContext 2.13

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.06

This league season, per match · 16 and 16 games

0.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

0.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

1.12 xGVia Att/Def 1.29

1.01 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.94

-0.22 Goals minus xGContext +0.11

70% Scored inContext 80%

60% Clean sheetsContext 20%

12.60 ShotsContext 12.70

4.44 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.40

32% On target shareContext 35%

8.50 Shots in the boxContext 7.30

67% Box shareContext 57%

7% ConversionContext 11%

1.89 OffsidesContext 2.44

12.80 Shots allowedContext 11.20

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.90

3.30 BlocksContext 3.38

3.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.40

85% Save rateContext 62%

39% PossessionIn forecast 51%

243 PassesContext 424

168 Accurate passesContext 349

69% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.79 Team ratingContext 6.74

16.40 FoulsContext 14.70

8.90 Fouls sufferedContext 9.90

2.20 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Goztepe

Rest7.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km1,826 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Samsunspor

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel847 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load12%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Goztepe	Samsunspor
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.2Süper Lig 2025-2026, 14 Dec	7Süper Lig 2025-2026, 14 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	847 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,826 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 2 / 3	1 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	29	27.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Goztepe Confirmed XI

4-4-1-1

1M. Lis(G)

26M. Bokele 5Héliton 4T. Altıkardeş 3Allan

15A. Cherni 30A. Dennis 6Rhaldney 2A. Kurtulan

11Efkan Bekiroğlu

9Juan

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Samsunspor Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1O. Kocuk(G)

4R. van Drongelen 24T. Borevković 37Ľ. Šatka

28S. Gönül 29A. Makoumbou 6E. Aydin 18Z. Yavru

11E. Kılınç 21C. Holse

9Marius

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Goztepe Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Samsunspor Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Goztepe-0.3 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Samsunspor+0.3 pp

Home / Away this season

Goztepe · Home 1.71points per game · 7 home games

W-D-L: 3-3-1
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 0.43

Samsunspor · Away 1.71points per game · 7 away games

W-D-L: 3-3-1
Scored: 1.86
Conceded: 1.29

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Goztepe	Samsunspor
Gazişehir Gaziantep	W 1–0 A	D 2–2 A
Trabzonspor	L 1–2 H	D 1–1 A
Antalyaspor	W 2–1 A	L 1–2 H
Kocaelispor	D 0–0 H	W 1–0 A
Kasimpasa	W 2–0 A	D 0–0 H
Genclerbirligi	W 1–0 H	W 2–1 H
Galatasaray	L 1–3 A	L 2–3 A
Alanyaspor	L 0–1 A	D 1–1 H
Istanbul Basaksehir	W 1–0 H	L 0–2 H
Eyüpspor	D 0–0 A	W 1–0 H
Besiktas	W 3–0 H	D 1–1 A
Kayserispor	D 1–1 A	W 3–1 A
Konyaspor	D 1–1 H	W 3–1 A
Fatih Karagümrük	W 2–0 A	W 3–2 H
Fenerbahce	D 0–0 H	D 0–0 H
Rizespor	W 3–0 A	D 1–1 H
Points	29 of 48 · 1.81 per game	25 of 48 · 1.56 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

0 Goztepe wins1 draws1 Samsunspor wins

Goals per game2.50 – 3.00 Over 2.5100% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%

3 Mar 2025Goztepe2–2Samsunspor
28 Sep 2024Samsunspor4–3Goztepe

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Goztepe	Samsunspor	Forecast
Scored per game	1.19	1.38
Conceded per game	0.56	1.13
Match goals	1.75	2.50	2.64
Over 1.5	56%	75%
Over 2.5	31%	44%	49%
Over 3.5	6%	31%
Both teams scored	31%	69%	54%
Clean sheets	63%	25%
Failed to score	25%	19%
Games	16	16

	Goztepe	Samsunspor	Forecast
Scored per game	0.90	1.40
Conceded per game	0.70	1.20
Match goals	1.60	2.60	2.64
Over 1.5	40%	80%
Over 2.5	30%	40%	49%
Over 3.5	10%	40%
Both teams scored	30%	70%	54%
Clean sheets	60%	20%
Failed to score	30%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Goztepe	Samsunspor	League
Corners
Corners won	4.69	5.27
Corners conceded	4.75	4.40
Match total	9.44	9.67	9.36
Over 8.5	63% 10/16	60% 9/15
Over 9.5	56% 9/16	47% 7/15
Over 10.5	31% 5/16	47% 7/15
Cards
Cards	2.44	2.25
Opponent cards	2.31	1.88
Match total	4.75	4.13	4.71
Over 3.5	63% 10/16	63% 10/16
Over 4.5	44% 7/16	44% 7/16

	Goztepe	Samsunspor	League
Corners
Corners won	4.40	4.33
Corners conceded	5.00	3.56
Match total	9.40	7.89	9.36
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	33% 3/9
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	33% 3/9
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	22% 2/9
Cards
Cards	2.40	1.60
Opponent cards	2.20	1.50
Match total	4.60	3.10	4.71
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Yasin Kol 28 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.29league 4.45

Red cards0.46league 0.25

Cards 5+68%league 47%

Fouls27.4league 25.8

Penalties0.32league 0.26

Home wins32%league 35%

Goztepe4 with this referee

Record1-3-0 Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.8 Pens for · against1 · 1 Reds2

W1 Nov 25H · Genclerbirligi1–00
D16 Aug 25H · Fenerbahce0–07
D16 Mar 25H · Eyüpspor1–14
D10 Feb 25A · BB Bodrumspor0–01

Samsunspor3 with this referee

Record3-0-0 Cards · opp.4.0 · 2.7 Pens for · against1 · 0

W9 Nov 25H · Eyüpspor1–02
W26 Apr 25A · BB Bodrumspor2–14
W16 Feb 25A · Konyaspor1–06

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.