Groningen vs Excelsior – 2 May 2026

Eredivisie Knockout phase Sat, May 2 · 17:45 Euroborg, Groningen

Groningen 9th · 42 pts · 31 played DWWDL

First leg2–0 2–3Full time

Excelsior 14th · 31 pts · 31 played LDLDW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Groningen were slight favourites.

Groningen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (27 vs 18). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Groningen. Groningen had 7.1 days of rest, Excelsior 6.3 and had to travel 202 km.

Away travel202 kmRest days7.1 · 6.3Matches / 14d1 · 1

Groningen57%

Draw22%

Excelsior21%

Expected goals 2.14 – 1.25

Groningen52%

Draw25%

Excelsior23%

Expected goals 1.70 – 1.05

Groningen57%

Draw22%

Excelsior21%

Expected goals 2.14 – 1.25

Groningen49%

Draw23%

Excelsior28%

Expected goals 1.91 – 1.40

Groningen56%

Draw22%

Excelsior21%

Expected goals 2.05 – 1.20

Over 2.5 66% Both score 63% Likeliest score 2–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Groningen)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsIngmar Oostrom

Cards per match 3.4
Penalties per match 0.27
Matches 30

Team strength

Groningen

Excelsior

27 L90 StrengthIn forecast 18

30 Current StrengthIn forecast 21

41 AttackIn forecast 21

21 DefenceIn forecast 18

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Groningen

Attack—

Defense risk—

Excelsior

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Groningen

Excelsior

1.39 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.16

1.29 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.65

1.65 xGVia Att/Def 1.28

1.28 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.79

-0.26 Goals minus xGContext -0.12

77% Scored inContext 77%

32% Clean sheetsContext 19%

15.45 ShotsContext 11.87

5.87 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

37% On target shareContext 34%

9.20 Shots in the boxContext 7.97

58% Box shareContext 66%

9% ConversionContext 10%

1.81 OffsidesContext 1.50

11.06 Shots allowedContext 14.61

4.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.61

3.07 BlocksContext 4.03

2.96 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.03

68% Save rateContext 70%

51% PossessionIn forecast 47%

414 PassesContext 395

332 Accurate passesContext 309

80% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.83 Team ratingContext 6.80

10.48 FoulsContext 11.84

9.77 Fouls sufferedContext 8.48

1.61 Yellow cardsContext 1.29

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.06

This league season, per match · 31 and 31 games

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

1.82 xGVia Att/Def 1.41

1.67 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.65

-0.32 Goals minus xGContext -0.01

90% Scored inContext 80%

30% Clean sheetsContext 20%

15.90 ShotsContext 13.30

5.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.60

33% On target shareContext 35%

10.33 Shots in the boxContext 9.30

60% Box shareContext 69%

9% ConversionContext 11%

1.44 OffsidesContext 1.75

12.10 Shots allowedContext 12.60

4.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.10

3.90 BlocksContext 2.90

3.10 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.11

69% Save rateContext 74%

48% PossessionIn forecast 52%

401 PassesContext 426

316 Accurate passesContext 336

79% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.88 Team ratingContext 6.91

9.50 FoulsContext 10.50

8.40 Fouls sufferedContext 8.20

1.30 Yellow cardsContext 0.90

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Groningen

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km403 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Excelsior

Rest6.3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel202 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Groningen	Excelsior
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 25 Apr	6.3Eredivisie 2025-2026, 26 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	202 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	403 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	1 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7.9	7.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Groningen Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1E. Vaessen(G)

43M. Peersman 4D. Janse 3T. Blokzijl 5M. Rente

8T. de Jonge 18T. Land

14J. Schreuders 17D. van der Werff 10Y. Taha

26T. van Bergen

Excelsior Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1S. van Gassel(G)

12A. Zagré 14L. Schouten 4C. Widell 3R. Meissen

23I. Yegoian 20L. Hartjes 10N. Naujoks

7E. Hansson 11G. de Regt 30D. Sanches Fernandes

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Groningen Absences are shown before kick-off

Excelsior Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Groningen+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Excelsior+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Groningen · Home 1.47points per game · 15 home games

W-D-L: 6-4-5
Scored: 1.53
Conceded: 0.93

Excelsior · Away 0.93points per game · 15 away games

W-D-L: 3-5-7
Scored: 1.13
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Groningen	Excelsior
Feyenoord	L 1–3 AL 0–1 H	L 1–2 AL 1–2 H
GO Ahead Eagles	D 0–0 HD 1–1 A	L 0–1 HL 0–2 A
Telstar	W 2–0 AW 2–0 H	D 2–2 HD 2–2 A
AZ Alkmaar	W 3–0 HL 1–4 A	L 1–2 HD 1–1 A
PEC Zwolle	D 1–1 AD 2–2 H	D 2–2 AW 2–1 H
Ajax	W 3–1 HL 0–2 A	D 2–2 HW 2–1 A
FC Volendam	L 2–3 AW 3–0 H	W 2–1 A
Twente	L 1–2 AD 1–1 H	D 0–0 AW 1–0 H
Utrecht	L 1–2 HW 1–0 A	W 5–0 HL 1–4 A
PSV Eindhoven	L 1–2 HL 2–4 A	L 1–5 AL 1–2 H
Sparta Rotterdam	L 0–2 AL 0–2 H	L 0–1 H
Fortuna Sittard	L 1–2 HW 2–1 A	L 1–2 AW 1–0 H
Heerenveen	W 2–0 AW 2–1 H	L 1–2 HL 1–2 A
NAC Breda	D 0–0 HW 2–1 A	W 2–0 AW 1–0 H
NEC Nijmegen	L 0–2 A	L 0–2 HL 0–5 A
Heracles	W 4–0 H	D 1–1 AL 1–2 H
Points	39 of 90 · 1.30 per game	31 of 90 · 1.03 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

1 Groningen wins0 draws0 Excelsior wins

Goals per game2.00 – 0.00 Over 2.50% Both scored0% Clean sheets100% · 0%

5 Dec 2025Excelsior0–2Groningen

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Groningen	Excelsior	Forecast
Scored per game	1.39	1.16
Conceded per game	1.29	1.65
Match goals	2.68	2.81	3.39
Over 1.5	87%	81%
Over 2.5	52%	61%	66%
Over 3.5	23%	26%
Both teams scored	52%	61%	63%
Clean sheets	32%	19%
Failed to score	23%	23%
Games	31	31

	Groningen	Excelsior	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	1.40
Conceded per game	1.40	1.40
Match goals	2.90	2.80	3.39
Over 1.5	90%	90%
Over 2.5	70%	60%	66%
Over 3.5	30%	20%
Both teams scored	70%	60%	63%
Clean sheets	30%	20%
Failed to score	10%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Groningen	Excelsior	League
Corners
Corners won	6.13	4.00
Corners conceded	4.70	5.35
Match total	10.83	9.35	10.30
Over 8.5	73% 22/30	58% 18/31
Over 9.5	50% 15/30	39% 12/31
Over 10.5	43% 13/30	29% 9/31
Cards
Cards	1.68	1.39
Opponent cards	1.42	1.42
Match total	3.10	2.81	3.30
Over 3.5	39% 12/31	29% 9/31
Over 4.5	19% 6/31	19% 6/31

	Groningen	Excelsior	League
Corners
Corners won	5.90	3.80
Corners conceded	5.90	5.50
Match total	11.80	9.30	10.30
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	70% 7/10	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	60% 6/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	1.30	0.90
Opponent cards	0.60	1.60
Match total	1.90	2.50	3.30
Over 3.5	10% 1/10	20% 2/10
Over 4.5	0% 0/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Ingmar Oostrom Netherlands · 30 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.20league 3.13

Red cards0.20league 0.17

Cards 5+33%league 25%

Fouls21.7league 21.2

Penalties0.27league 0.22

Home wins47%league 45%

Groningen3 with this referee

Record1-1-1 Cards · opp.1.0 · 3.0 Pens for · against1 · 0

L25 Jan 26H · Fortuna Sittard1–23
D21 Dec 25A · GO Ahead Eagles1–10
W23 Apr 25H · Heracles4–10

Excelsior2 with this referee

Record1-0-1 Cards · opp.4.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 1 Reds2

W30 Aug 25H · Twente1–03
L8 Dec 23A · Twente2–45

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.