Groningen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Feyenoord were slight favourites.
Feyenoord were the stronger side on L90 Strength (63 vs 26). Groningen had 7.8 days of rest, Feyenoord 3.7 and had to travel 202 km.
Away travel202 kmRest days7.8 · 3.7Matches / 14d2 · 3
Groningen23%
Draw24%
Feyenoord53%
Groningen23%
Draw25%
Feyenoord52%
Groningen22%
Draw24%
Feyenoord53%
Groningen17%
Draw22%
Feyenoord61%
Groningen23%
Draw25%
Feyenoord52%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Groningen)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsBas Nijhuis
- Cards per match 2.3
- Penalties per match 0.26
- Matches 39
Team strength
Groningen
Feyenoord
26
L90 StrengthIn forecast
63
30
Current StrengthIn forecast
59
41
AttackIn forecast
76
21
DefenceIn forecast
61
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFeyenoord
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GroningenFeyenoord
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.33
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.67
1.31
xGVia Att/Def
1.98
1.31
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.61
+0.69
Goals minus xGContext
+0.35
100%
Scored inContext
100%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
67%
13.50
ShotsContext
17.67
6.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.00
44%
On target shareContext
34%
8.67
Shots in the boxContext
12.17
64%
Box shareContext
71%
15%
ConversionContext
13%
1.75
OffsidesContext
2.50
12.83
Shots allowedContext
7.67
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.25
3.60
BlocksContext
2.80
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.50
65%
Save rateContext
67%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
392
PassesContext
426
306
Accurate passesContext
356
78%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.85
Team ratingContext
7.15
11.50
FoulsContext
9.67
11.33
Fouls sufferedContext
10.50
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.67
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.17
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.27
xGVia Att/Def
1.61
1.43
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.79
+0.73
Goals minus xGContext
+0.19
80%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
13.50
ShotsContext
15.00
5.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.20
42%
On target shareContext
35%
8.10
Shots in the boxContext
10.30
61%
Box shareContext
68%
15%
ConversionContext
12%
1.50
OffsidesContext
2.67
12.30
Shots allowedContext
8.40
4.89
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.25
2.78
BlocksContext
2.63
3.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.75
64%
Save rateContext
54%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
390
PassesContext
418
308
Accurate passesContext
345
79%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.88
Team ratingContext
7.01
11.50
FoulsContext
10.90
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
12.50
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Groningen
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km318 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Feyenoord
Rest3.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel202 km3,184 km in 14d
Schedule load25%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Groningen |
Feyenoord |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 25 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.8Eredivisie 2025-2026, 20 Sep | 3.7UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 24 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 202 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 318 km | 3,184 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 2 | 2 / 3 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.2 | 4.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Groningen
Confirmed XI
1E. Vaessen(G)
43M. Peersman
4D. Janse
3T. Blokzijl
5M. Rente
6S. Resink
8T. de Jonge
14J. Schreuders
10Y. Taha
17D. van der Werff
26T. van Bergen
Feyenoord
Confirmed XI
22T. Wellenreuther(G)
15J. Bos
31Malcolm Jeng
4T. Watanabe
26G. Read
8Q. Timber
28O. Targhalline
16L. Sauer
40L. Valente
23A. Hadj Moussa
9A. Ueda
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Groningen
Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Feyenoord
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Groningen+0.3 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Feyenoord-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Groningen · Home
3.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-0
- Scored
- 2.67
- Conceded
- 0.33
Feyenoord · Away
2.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 1.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Groningen | Feyenoord |
|---|---|---|
| Heerenveen | W 2–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| AZ Alkmaar | L 1–4 A | D 3–3 A |
| Points | 3 of 6 · 1.50 per game | 4 of 6 · 2.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 Groningen wins1 draws1 Feyenoord wins
Goals per game1.50 – 3.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 2 Apr 2025Feyenoord4–1Groningen
- 14 Sep 2024Groningen2–2Feyenoord
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Groningen | Feyenoord | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 2.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 0.67 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 3.00 | 2.89 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 50% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 33% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 67% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Groningen | Feyenoord | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 0.71 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 2.71 | 2.89 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 43% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 29% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 57% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 14% | |
| Games | 6 | 7 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Groningen | Feyenoord | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.17 | 7.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.67 | 3.40 | |
| Match total | 8.84 | 10.40 | 9.95 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 4/6 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 2/6 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 17% 1/6 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 1.83 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.17 | 1.67 | |
| Match total | 3.67 | 3.50 | 3.78 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 3/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 17% 1/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Groningen | Feyenoord | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.90 | 5.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.60 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 8.50 | 9.56 | 9.95 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.30 | 1.30 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 3.10 | 3.78 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Bas Nijhuis Netherlands · 39 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.23league 3.55
Red cards0.05league 0.22
Cards 5+13%league 40%
Fouls16.7league 22.5
Penalties0.26league 0.20
Home wins56%league 50%
Groningen3 with this referee
Record1-0-2
Cards · opp.0.7 · 1.7
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L18 May 25A · PEC Zwolle0–20
- L5 Apr 25H · PSV Eindhoven1–32
- W15 Feb 25A · Willem II3–10
Feyenoord7 with this referee
Record5-1-1
Cards · opp.0.4 · 0.7
Pens for · against3 · 0
- W30 Mar 25H · GO Ahead Eagles3–21
- L12 Jan 25H · Utrecht1–20
- W7 Dec 24A · Waalwijk3–20
- D28 Sep 24A · NEC Nijmegen1–11
- W18 Aug 24A · PEC Zwolle5–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Groningen6 games · scored 12 · conceded 9
1
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
4
1
76-90
Feyenoord6 games · scored 14 · conceded 4
1
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
4
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
61-75
2
1
76-90
Groningen10 games · scored 20 · conceded 17
2
3
0-15
3
3
16-30
4
3
31-45
4
3
46-60
1
4
61-75
6
1
76-90
Feyenoord10 games · scored 18 · conceded 13
1
2
0-15
3
2
16-30
5
2
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
61-75
4
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
