Groningen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Groningen were clear favourites.
Groningen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (30 vs 18). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Groningen. Groningen had 5.2 days of rest, Fortuna Sittard 6.1 and had to travel 251 km.
Away travel251 kmRest days5.2 · 6.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
Groningen64%
Draw19%
Fortuna Sittard17%
Groningen54%
Draw24%
Fortuna Sittard22%
Groningen64%
Draw19%
Fortuna Sittard17%
Groningen56%
Draw21%
Fortuna Sittard23%
Groningen64%
Draw18%
Fortuna Sittard18%
Over 2.5 69%
Both score 62%
Likeliest score 2–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Groningen)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsMartijn Vos
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.31
- Matches 16
Team strength
Groningen
Fortuna Sittard
30
L90 StrengthIn forecast
18
30
Current StrengthIn forecast
21
41
AttackIn forecast
19
21
DefenceIn forecast
19
64
Form indexContext
46
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFortuna Sittard
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GroningenFortuna Sittard
2.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.67
2.33
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.67
1.95
xGVia Att/Def
1.12
2.57
xG allowedVia Att/Def
3.06
+0.38
Goals minus xGContext
+0.55
100%
Scored inContext
67%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
13.33
ShotsContext
9.67
7.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
58%
On target shareContext
52%
12.00
Shots in the boxContext
5.67
72%
Box shareContext
55%
18%
ConversionContext
17%
2.00
OffsidesContext
3.50
16.00
Shots allowedContext
22.00
7.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
8.00
2.50
BlocksContext
6.67
5.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
6.33
70%
Save rateContext
79%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
29%
404
PassesContext
263
322
Accurate passesContext
181
80%
Pass accuracyContext
69%
6.94
Team ratingContext
6.95
9.00
FoulsContext
8.33
12.67
Fouls sufferedContext
9.67
0.67
Yellow cardsContext
0.33
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.33
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.46
xGVia Att/Def
0.94
1.80
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.31
+0.14
Goals minus xGContext
+0.26
80%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
13.90
ShotsContext
10.30
5.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.10
42%
On target shareContext
40%
9.33
Shots in the boxContext
5.80
63%
Box shareContext
57%
12%
ConversionContext
12%
2.11
OffsidesContext
2.57
13.10
Shots allowedContext
16.30
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.80
3.11
BlocksContext
4.40
3.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.33
62%
Save rateContext
70%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
39%
401
PassesContext
320
316
Accurate passesContext
237
79%
Pass accuracyContext
74%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.87
9.80
FoulsContext
9.00
10.70
Fouls sufferedContext
9.90
1.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.30
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Groningen
WWL
Rest5.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km422 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 64 · 6 pts vs 4.4 for an average club · +2.6 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Groningen |
Fortuna Sittard |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.2Eredivisie 2026-2027, 23 Aug | 6.1Eredivisie 2026-2027, 22 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 251 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 422 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.7 | 8.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
Groningen
Confirmed XI
1E. Vaessen(G)
2W. Prins
4M. Csinger
3T. Blokzijl
14J. Schreuders
8T. de Jonge
18T. Land
24P. Clement
26T. van Bergen
17D. van der Werff
9B. Willumsson
Fortuna Sittard
Confirmed XI
31M. Branderhorst(G)
8J. Dahlhaus
28J. Hubner
3R. Guth
23P. Brittijn
12Ivo Pinto
22S. ’t Zand
20É. Michut
52M. Ihattaren
25L. Zeefuik
9A. Descotte
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Groningen
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Fortuna Sittard
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Groningen+0.7 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Fortuna Sittard-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Groningen · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Fortuna Sittard · Away
1.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Groningen | Fortuna Sittard |
|---|---|---|
| PSV Eindhoven | L 1–5 A | D 2–2 A |
| Points | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
2 Groningen wins0 draws2 Fortuna Sittard wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets25% · 25%
- 25 Jan 2026Groningen1–2Fortuna Sittard
- 25 Oct 2025Fortuna Sittard1–2Groningen
- 16 Mar 2025Groningen1–0Fortuna Sittard
- 26 Oct 2024Fortuna Sittard1–0Groningen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Groningen | Fortuna Sittard | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.33 | 1.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.33 | 1.67 | |
| Match goals | 4.67 | 3.33 | 3.54 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 67% | 69% |
| Over 3.5 | 67% | 67% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 67% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 33% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Groningen | Fortuna Sittard | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.90 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 3.40 | 3.00 | 3.54 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 60% | 69% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Groningen | Fortuna Sittard | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.67 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 11.00 | |
| Match total | 8.67 | 14.50 | 10.70 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 1/3 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 1/3 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 1/3 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.67 | 0.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 1.33 | |
| Match total | 1.67 | 2.00 | 2.17 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/3 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/3 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Groningen | Fortuna Sittard | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.44 | 4.13 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.56 | 7.63 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 11.76 | 10.70 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 88% 7/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.20 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.60 | 1.10 | |
| Match total | 1.80 | 2.60 | 2.17 |
| Over 3.5 | 10% 1/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Martijn Vos Netherlands · 16 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.81league 2.08
Red cards0.44league 0.08
Cards 5+38%league 8%
Fouls24.9league 20.9
Penalties0.31league 0.08
Home wins31%league 33%
Groningen4 with this referee
Record2-1-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.5
Pens for · against2 · 2
Reds1
- W22 Mar 26H · AZ Alkmaar3–00
- W5 Dec 25A · Excelsior2–03
- L3 Nov 24A · NEC Nijmegen0–63
- D31 Aug 24A · Almere City FC1–12
Fortuna Sittard2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 0.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W14 Sep 25A · Telstar3–10
- D18 May 25H · Utrecht0–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Groningen3 games · scored 7 · conceded 7
3
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
3
46-60
61-75
1
1
76-90
Fortuna Sittard3 games · scored 5 · conceded 5
2
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
2
46-60
1
61-75
2
1
76-90
Groningen10 games · scored 16 · conceded 17
5
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
3
3
31-45
4
4
46-60
2
61-75
3
3
76-90
Fortuna Sittard10 games · scored 12 · conceded 18
4
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
3
4
46-60
1
4
61-75
2
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
