Groningen vs Heerenveen – 16 Aug 2025

Eredivisie Knockout phase Sat, Aug 16 · 20:00 Euroborg, Groningen

Groningen 14th · 0 pts · 1 played L

2–1Full time

Heerenveen 10th · 1 pts · 1 played D

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Groningen were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Groningen had 6.3 days of rest, Heerenveen 7 and had to travel 52 km.

Away travel52 kmRest days6.3 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1

Groningen44%

Draw26%

Heerenveen30%

Expected goals 1.55 – 1.25

Groningen44%

Draw27%

Heerenveen30%

Expected goals 1.50 – 1.19

Groningen44%

Draw26%

Heerenveen30%

Expected goals 1.55 – 1.25

Groningen36%

Draw27%

Heerenveen37%

Expected goals 1.38 – 1.40

Groningen44%

Draw27%

Heerenveen30%

Expected goals 1.50 – 1.19

Over 2.5 53% Both score 57% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Groningen)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsJeroen Manschot

Cards per match 3.1
Penalties per match 0.26
Matches 34

Team strength

Groningen

Heerenveen

21 L90 StrengthIn forecast 21

30 Current StrengthIn forecast 31

41 AttackIn forecast 36

21 DefenceIn forecast 40

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Groningen

Attack—

Defense risk—

Heerenveen

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Groningen

Heerenveen

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

2.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

1.16 xGVia Att/Def 1.34

1.41 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.07

+0.54 Goals minus xGContext -0.14

80% Scored inContext 80%

0% Clean sheetsContext 20%

11.10 ShotsContext 13.90

4.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.30

40% On target shareContext 31%

6.10 Shots in the boxContext 8.50

55% Box shareContext 63%

15% ConversionContext 9%

1.20 OffsidesContext 2.00

11.50 Shots allowedContext 10.40

4.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.70

2.20 BlocksContext 2.75

2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.50

53% Save rateContext 68%

47% PossessionIn forecast 53%

410 PassesContext 437

329 Accurate passesContext 363

80% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.79 Team ratingContext 6.94

10.20 FoulsContext 11.50

10.70 Fouls sufferedContext 10.80

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 0.60

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Groningen

Rest6.3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km277 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Heerenveen

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel52 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Groningen	Heerenveen
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.3Eredivisie 2025-2026, 10 Aug	7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 9 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	52 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	277 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 1	0 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	6.9	7.6

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Groningen Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

21H. Jurjus(G)

2W. Prins 43M. Peersman 3T. Blokzijl 5M. Rente

6S. Resink 8T. de Jonge

14J. Schreuders 26T. van Bergen 10Y. Taha

9B. Willumsson

Heerenveen Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

44A. Noppert(G)

19V. Zagaritis 17N. Hopland 4S. Kersten 45O. Braude

6J. van Overeem 16M. Linday

7M. Rivera 8L. Brouwers 20J. Trenskow

27V. Sejk

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Groningen Absences are shown before kick-off

Heerenveen Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Groningen+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Heerenveen+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Groningen · Home No home games yet this season.

Heerenveen · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

1 Groningen wins0 draws1 Heerenveen wins

Goals per game1.00 – 1.00 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets50% · 0%

25 Jan 2025Groningen1–0Heerenveen
22 Sep 2024Heerenveen2–1Groningen

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Groningen	Heerenveen	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.00
Conceded per game	4.00	1.00
Match goals	5.00	2.00	2.80
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	0%	53%
Over 3.5	100%	0%
Both teams scored	100%	100%	57%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	1	1

	Groningen	Heerenveen	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.00
Conceded per game	4.00	1.00
Match goals	5.00	2.00	2.80
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	0%	53%
Over 3.5	100%	0%
Both teams scored	100%	100%	57%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	1	1

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Groningen	Heerenveen	League
Corners
Corners won	1.00	9.00
Corners conceded	6.00	2.00
Match total	7.00	11.00	10.27
Over 8.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Over 9.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Cards
Cards	2.00	1.00
Opponent cards	2.00	1.00
Match total	4.00	2.00	2.91
Over 3.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1

	Groningen	Heerenveen	League
Corners
Corners won	2.80	5.30
Corners conceded	4.00	3.30
Match total	6.80	8.60	10.27
Over 8.5	20% 2/10	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	10% 1/10	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	10% 1/10	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	1.80	0.80
Opponent cards	1.90	1.40
Match total	3.70	2.20	2.91
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	20% 2/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Jeroen Manschot Netherlands · 34 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.00league 3.00

Red cards0.06league 0.17

Cards 5+24%league 33%

Fouls19.4league 22.0

Penalties0.26league 0.17

Home wins50%league 58%

Groningen3 with this referee

Record0-3-0 Cards · opp.3.3 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds1

D14 May 25H · Ajax2–24
D8 Dec 24H · PEC Zwolle0–03
D25 Aug 24H · AZ Alkmaar0–03

Heerenveen5 with this referee

Record2-1-2 Cards · opp.0.8 · 1.6 Pens for · against3 · 0

W18 May 25H · Feyenoord2–00
D9 Feb 25H · Twente3–31
L23 Nov 24A · Feyenoord0–32
W25 Nov 23H · Fortuna Sittard3–01
L16 Sep 23A · Feyenoord1–60

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.