Groningen vs NEC Nijmegen – 10 May 2026

Eredivisie Knockout phase Sun, May 10 · 15:45 Euroborg, Groningen

Groningen 10th · 42 pts · 32 played WWDLL

First leg0–2 2–1Full time

NEC Nijmegen 3rd · 56 pts · 32 played DWDDD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

NEC Nijmegen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (42 vs 25). Groningen had 7.9 days of rest, NEC Nijmegen 7.8 and had to travel 161 km.

Away travel161 kmRest days7.9 · 7.8Matches / 14d1 · 1

Groningen34%

Draw24%

NEC Nijmegen42%

Expected goals 1.59 – 1.77

Groningen33%

Draw27%

NEC Nijmegen40%

Expected goals 1.27 – 1.41

Groningen34%

Draw24%

NEC Nijmegen42%

Expected goals 1.59 – 1.76

Groningen27%

Draw23%

NEC Nijmegen50%

Expected goals 1.42 – 1.99

Groningen35%

Draw25%

NEC Nijmegen41%

Expected goals 1.51 – 1.65

Over 2.5 65% Both score 67% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Groningen)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsAlex Bos

Cards per match 3.5
Penalties per match 0.30
Matches 40

Team strength

Groningen

NEC Nijmegen

25 L90 StrengthIn forecast 42

30 Current StrengthIn forecast 32

41 AttackIn forecast 37

21 DefenceIn forecast 33

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Groningen

Attack—

Defense risk—

NEC Nijmegen

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Groningen

NEC Nijmegen

1.41 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.31

1.34 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.56

1.63 xGVia Att/Def 1.74

1.32 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.41

-0.22 Goals minus xGContext +0.57

78% Scored inContext 97%

31% Clean sheetsContext 16%

15.31 ShotsContext 16.34

5.84 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.63

37% On target shareContext 41%

9.19 Shots in the boxContext 10.16

59% Box shareContext 63%

9% ConversionContext 14%

1.81 OffsidesContext 2.37

11.25 Shots allowedContext 11.28

4.32 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00

3.10 BlocksContext 2.52

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.52

66% Save rateContext 69%

51% PossessionIn forecast 57%

415 PassesContext 425

333 Accurate passesContext 340

80% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.84 Team ratingContext 6.94

10.31 FoulsContext 11.34

9.78 Fouls sufferedContext 11.25

1.56 Yellow cardsContext 1.75

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.06

This league season, per match · 32 and 32 games

1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.82 xGVia Att/Def 1.58

1.64 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.37

-0.22 Goals minus xGContext +0.12

90% Scored inContext 100%

30% Clean sheetsContext 20%

16.20 ShotsContext 17.40

5.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.50

33% On target shareContext 37%

10.20 Shots in the boxContext 10.80

63% Box shareContext 63%

10% ConversionContext 10%

1.56 OffsidesContext 2.33

12.30 Shots allowedContext 10.80

4.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.30

3.70 BlocksContext 2.71

3.20 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.00

67% Save rateContext 76%

50% PossessionIn forecast 55%

415 PassesContext 414

330 Accurate passesContext 329

79% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.90 Team ratingContext 6.92

9.20 FoulsContext 11.70

8.60 Fouls sufferedContext 10.10

1.20 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Groningen

Rest7.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

NEC Nijmegen

Rest7.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel161 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Groningen	NEC Nijmegen
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 2 May	7.8Eredivisie 2025-2026, 2 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	161 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 2	0 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	6.9	6.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Groningen Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1E. Vaessen(G)

43M. Peersman 4D. Janse 3T. Blokzijl 5M. Rente

18T. Land 8T. de Jonge

14J. Schreuders 17D. van der Werff 10Y. Taha

26T. van Bergen

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

NEC Nijmegen Confirmed XI

3-4-1-2

1G. Crettaz(G)

24D. Fonville 17B. Nuytinck 14E. Dasa

20N. Lebreton 3P. Sandler 6D. Nejašmić 25S. Ouaissa

23K. Sano

30B. Linssen 10T. Chery

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Groningen Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

NEC Nijmegen Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Groningen+0.0 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
NEC Nijmegen+0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Groningen · Home 1.38points per game · 16 home games

W-D-L: 6-4-6
Scored: 1.56
Conceded: 1.06

NEC Nijmegen · Away 1.69points per game · 16 away games

W-D-L: 7-6-3
Scored: 2.19
Conceded: 1.63

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Groningen	NEC Nijmegen
Excelsior	L 2–3 HW 2–0 A	W 2–0 AW 5–0 H
Feyenoord	L 1–3 AL 0–1 H	D 1–1 HW 4–2 A
GO Ahead Eagles	D 0–0 HD 1–1 A	D 1–1 A
Telstar	W 2–0 AW 2–0 H	D 1–1 HD 2–2 A
AZ Alkmaar	W 3–0 HL 1–4 A	W 3–1 AW 2–1 H
PEC Zwolle	D 1–1 AD 2–2 H	W 2–1 HD 2–2 A
Ajax	W 3–1 HL 0–2 A	D 1–1 AD 2–2 H
FC Volendam	L 2–3 AW 3–0 H	W 3–0 HW 3–2 A
Twente	L 1–2 AD 1–1 H	D 1–1 AD 3–3 H
Utrecht	L 1–2 HW 1–0 A	L 1–3 HL 0–1 A
PSV Eindhoven	L 1–2 HL 2–4 A	W 3–2 AL 3–5 H
Sparta Rotterdam	L 0–2 AL 0–2 H	D 1–1 AW 3–1 H
Fortuna Sittard	L 1–2 HW 2–1 A	L 2–3 HL 2–3 A
Heerenveen	W 2–0 AW 2–1 H	D 2–2 HL 2–3 A
NAC Breda	D 0–0 HW 2–1 A	W 4–3 AW 3–0 H
Heracles	W 4–0 H	W 4–1 HW 4–1 A
Points	42 of 93 · 1.35 per game	53 of 93 · 1.71 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings

1 Groningen wins0 draws2 NEC Nijmegen wins

Goals per game0.67 – 3.00 Over 2.567% Both scored33% Clean sheets0% · 67%

9 Nov 2025NEC Nijmegen2–0Groningen
8 Feb 2025Groningen2–1NEC Nijmegen
3 Nov 2024NEC Nijmegen6–0Groningen

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Groningen	NEC Nijmegen	Forecast
Scored per game	1.41	2.31
Conceded per game	1.34	1.56
Match goals	2.75	3.88	3.36
Over 1.5	88%	97%
Over 2.5	53%	72%	65%
Over 3.5	25%	59%
Both teams scored	53%	81%	67%
Clean sheets	31%	16%
Failed to score	22%	3%
Games	32	32

	Groningen	NEC Nijmegen	Forecast
Scored per game	1.60	1.70
Conceded per game	1.50	1.20
Match goals	3.10	2.90	3.36
Over 1.5	90%	100%
Over 2.5	70%	40%	65%
Over 3.5	40%	30%
Both teams scored	70%	80%	67%
Clean sheets	30%	20%
Failed to score	10%	0%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Groningen	NEC Nijmegen	League
Corners
Corners won	6.10	5.67
Corners conceded	4.81	4.07
Match total	10.91	9.74	10.29
Over 8.5	74% 23/31	60% 18/30
Over 9.5	52% 16/31	53% 16/30
Over 10.5	45% 14/31	47% 14/30
Cards
Cards	1.63	1.84
Opponent cards	1.38	1.88
Match total	3.01	3.72	3.31
Over 3.5	38% 12/32	44% 14/32
Over 4.5	19% 6/32	44% 14/32

	Groningen	NEC Nijmegen	League
Corners
Corners won	5.80	6.67
Corners conceded	5.70	3.56
Match total	11.50	10.23	10.29
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	70% 7/10	67% 6/9
Over 10.5	60% 6/10	56% 5/9
Cards
Cards	1.20	1.80
Opponent cards	0.50	1.20
Match total	1.70	3.00	3.31
Over 3.5	10% 1/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	0% 0/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Alex Bos Netherlands · 40 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.20league 3.13

Red cards0.28league 0.18

Cards 5+23%league 26%

Fouls22.3league 21.2

Penalties0.30league 0.21

Home wins40%league 44%

Groningen5 with this referee

Record0-3-2 Cards · opp.2.2 · 1.4 Pens for · against2 · 1 Reds1

D13 Mar 26A · PEC Zwolle1–13
D23 Nov 25H · PEC Zwolle2–21
D29 Mar 25A · NAC Breda1–14
L2 Feb 25A · Sparta Rotterdam0–11
L15 Dec 24A · Twente0–22

NEC Nijmegen4 with this referee

Record2-0-2 Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.5 Pens for · against0 · 0

W4 Apr 26A · Excelsior2–00
W16 Aug 25A · Heracles4–12
L7 Dec 24A · GO Ahead Eagles0–52
L25 Oct 24A · Almere City FC0–11

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.