Groningen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Groningen
5th · 15 pts · 8 played
WWWLW
0–2Full time
Sparta Rotterdam
12th · 10 pts · 8 played
LWLLD
Our take
Groningen were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on Groningen. Groningen had 15.8 days of rest, Sparta Rotterdam 14.9 and had to travel 202 km.
Away travel202 kmRest days15.8 · 14.9Matches / 14d0 · 0
Groningen48%
Draw26%
Sparta Rotterdam26%
Groningen48%
Draw26%
Sparta Rotterdam26%
Groningen49%
Draw26%
Sparta Rotterdam26%
Groningen40%
Draw27%
Sparta Rotterdam33%
Groningen47%
Draw26%
Sparta Rotterdam27%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Groningen)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsRobin Hensgens
- Cards per match 2.8
- Penalties per match 0.11
- Matches 19
Team strength
GroningenSparta Rotterdam
27
L90 StrengthIn forecast
21
30
Current StrengthIn forecast
18
41
AttackIn forecast
32
21
DefenceIn forecast
17
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSparta Rotterdam
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GroningenSparta Rotterdam
1.75
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.38
1.38
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.75
1.30
xGVia Att/Def
1.33
1.19
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.73
+0.45
Goals minus xGContext
+0.05
88%
Scored inContext
75%
38%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
13.25
ShotsContext
12.25
6.25
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.25
47%
On target shareContext
35%
7.75
Shots in the boxContext
7.63
58%
Box shareContext
64%
13%
ConversionContext
11%
2.17
OffsidesContext
1.33
12.13
Shots allowedContext
18.75
4.57
On target allowedVia Att/Def
7.00
3.14
BlocksContext
5.00
3.14
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.13
69%
Save rateContext
59%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
383
PassesContext
347
302
Accurate passesContext
272
79%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.76
12.13
FoulsContext
7.25
11.25
Fouls sufferedContext
8.88
2.13
Yellow cardsContext
1.38
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.13
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.60
1.19
xGVia Att/Def
1.24
1.19
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.94
+0.41
Goals minus xGContext
+0.06
80%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
13.00
ShotsContext
11.20
5.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
44%
On target shareContext
36%
7.30
Shots in the boxContext
7.56
56%
Box shareContext
65%
12%
ConversionContext
12%
2.17
OffsidesContext
1.50
11.80
Shots allowedContext
20.60
4.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
7.60
2.89
BlocksContext
5.80
2.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.70
64%
Save rateContext
62%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
388
PassesContext
350
304
Accurate passesContext
274
79%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.84
12.20
FoulsContext
7.60
11.70
Fouls sufferedContext
8.90
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.20
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Groningen
Rest15.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Sparta Rotterdam
Rest14.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel202 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Groningen |
Sparta Rotterdam |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 15.8Eredivisie 2025-2026, 3 Oct | 14.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 4 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 202 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.1 | 6.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Groningen
Confirmed XI
1E. Vaessen(G)
43M. Peersman
4D. Janse
3T. Blokzijl
16T. Mercera
6S. Resink
8T. de Jonge
14J. Schreuders
10Y. Taha
17D. van der Werff
26T. van Bergen
Sparta Rotterdam
Confirmed XI
1J. Drommel(G)
5T. Quintero
4R. Martins Indi
3M. Young
2S. Sambo
8J. Toornstra
6J. Baas
11A. Oufkir
10L. Duijvestijn
7M. van Bergen
9T. Lauritsen
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Groningen
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Sparta Rotterdam
Scores -0.03 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Groningen-1.0 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- Sparta Rotterdam+0.8 pp
Home / Away this season
Groningen · Home
2.25points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.50
Sparta Rotterdam · Away
1.50points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-2
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 2.25
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 4 this season
| Opponent | Groningen | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord | L 0–1 H | L 0–4 H |
| Utrecht | W 1–0 A | W 2–1 H |
| Heracles | W 4–0 H | L 0–3 A |
| PSV Eindhoven | L 2–4 A | L 1–6 A |
| Points | 6 of 12 · 1.50 per game | 3 of 12 · 0.75 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Groningen wins0 draws1 Sparta Rotterdam wins
Goals per game0.50 – 0.50
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets50% · 50%
- 2 Feb 2025Sparta Rotterdam1–0Groningen
- 9 Nov 2024Groningen1–0Sparta Rotterdam
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Groningen | Sparta Rotterdam | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.75 | 1.38 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.38 | 2.75 | |
| Match goals | 3.13 | 4.13 | 2.74 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 63% | 88% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 38% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 13% | 25% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Groningen | Sparta Rotterdam | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.75 | 1.38 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.38 | 2.75 | |
| Match goals | 3.13 | 4.13 | 2.74 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 63% | 88% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 38% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 13% | 25% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Groningen | Sparta Rotterdam | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.25 | 3.13 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.88 | 7.00 | |
| Match total | 9.13 | 10.13 | 9.96 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 88% 7/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 3/8 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 2/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.25 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.75 | 3.50 | 3.76 |
| Over 3.5 | 63% 5/8 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 13% 1/8 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Groningen | Sparta Rotterdam | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.90 | 3.13 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 7.00 | |
| Match total | 8.40 | 10.13 | 9.96 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 88% 7/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 1.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 3.20 | 3.76 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Robin Hensgens Netherlands · 19 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.58league 3.51
Red cards0.26league 0.22
Cards 5+21%league 36%
Fouls20.9league 22.5
Penalties0.11league 0.26
Home wins53%league 49%
Groningen1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W17 Aug 24A · Waalwijk2–12
Sparta Rotterdam3 with this referee
Record2-1-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W23 Aug 25A · GO Ahead Eagles3–02
- W6 Apr 25H · NEC Nijmegen2–00
- D28 Sep 24H · Fortuna Sittard1–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Groningen8 games · scored 14 · conceded 11
1
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
4
2
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
4
2
76-90
Sparta Rotterdam8 games · scored 11 · conceded 22
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
4
31-45
2
4
46-60
2
7
61-75
3
4
76-90
Groningen10 games · scored 16 · conceded 15
1
2
0-15
3
2
16-30
4
3
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
3
61-75
5
2
76-90
Sparta Rotterdam10 games · scored 13 · conceded 26
1
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
5
31-45
3
5
46-60
2
7
61-75
3
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
