Groningen vs Utrecht – 14 Feb 2026

Eredivisie Knockout phase Sat, Feb 14 · 20:00 Euroborg, Groningen

Groningen 8th · 31 pts · 22 played DWLLL

First leg1–0 1–2Full time

Utrecht 10th · 27 pts · 22 played LLDLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Utrecht. Groningen had 6.2 days of rest, Utrecht 3 and had to travel 159 km.

Away travel159 kmRest days6.2 · 3Matches / 14d2 · 3

Groningen39%

Draw27%

Utrecht35%

Expected goals 1.41 – 1.32

Groningen40%

Draw27%

Utrecht33%

Expected goals 1.42 – 1.26

Groningen39%

Draw27%

Utrecht34%

Expected goals 1.40 – 1.31

Groningen32%

Draw27%

Utrecht42%

Expected goals 1.26 – 1.48

Groningen38%

Draw27%

Utrecht35%

Expected goals 1.36 – 1.29

Over 2.5 51% Both score 56% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Groningen)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsSerdar Gozubuyuk

Cards per match 4.1
Penalties per match 0.32
Matches 92

Team strength

Groningen

Utrecht

24 L90 StrengthIn forecast 29

30 Current StrengthIn forecast 34

41 AttackIn forecast 32

21 DefenceIn forecast 31

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Groningen

Attack—

Defense risk—

Utrecht

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Groningen

Utrecht

1.32 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

1.27 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.32

1.54 xGVia Att/Def 1.16

1.17 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.26

-0.22 Goals minus xGContext +0.34

73% Scored inContext 82%

32% Clean sheetsContext 14%

14.91 ShotsContext 13.91

6.05 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.73

39% On target shareContext 34%

8.71 Shots in the boxContext 9.09

58% Box shareContext 65%

9% ConversionContext 11%

1.94 OffsidesContext 1.57

10.77 Shots allowedContext 12.09

4.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50

2.79 BlocksContext 3.95

2.89 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.14

66% Save rateContext 70%

51% PossessionIn forecast 47%

415 PassesContext 397

335 Accurate passesContext 317

81% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.81 Team ratingContext 6.90

10.82 FoulsContext 10.95

10.32 Fouls sufferedContext 10.77

1.73 Yellow cardsContext 1.41

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 22 and 22 games

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.70

1.66 xGVia Att/Def 0.97

1.15 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.26

-0.46 Goals minus xGContext +0.03

70% Scored inContext 70%

40% Clean sheetsContext 0%

16.80 ShotsContext 11.90

5.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.20

33% On target shareContext 35%

9.67 Shots in the boxContext 7.30

55% Box shareContext 62%

7% ConversionContext 8%

1.89 OffsidesContext 1.67

10.00 Shots allowedContext 13.00

4.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.10

3.13 BlocksContext 3.20

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.40

68% Save rateContext 67%

54% PossessionIn forecast 46%

452 PassesContext 397

372 Accurate passesContext 322

82% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.81 Team ratingContext 6.76

10.10 FoulsContext 10.70

9.80 Fouls sufferedContext 11.70

1.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Groningen

Rest6.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km403 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Utrecht

Rest3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel159 km335 km in 14d

Schedule load23%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Groningen	Utrecht
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Moderate · 23
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.2Eredivisie 2025-2026, 8 Feb	3Eredivisie 2025-2026, 11 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	159 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	403 km	335 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	2 / 3 / 7
Next matchdays after this one	7.6	7.7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Groningen Confirmed XI

4-4-2

1E. Vaessen(G)

43M. Peersman 4D. Janse 3T. Blokzijl 5M. Rente

14J. Schreuders 6S. Resink 18T. Land 17D. van der Werff

26T. van Bergen 10Y. Taha

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Utrecht Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1V. Barkas(G)

16S. El Karouani 3M. van der Hoorn 40M. Didden 23N. Vesterlund

21G. Zechiël 27A. Engwanda

10Y. Cathline 20D. de Wit 77Ángel Alarcón

18A. Stepanov

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Groningen Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Utrecht Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Groningen+0.0 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Utrecht+0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Groningen · Home 1.36points per game · 11 home games

W-D-L: 4-3-4
Scored: 1.45
Conceded: 1.00

Utrecht · Away 0.91points per game · 11 away games

W-D-L: 2-4-5
Scored: 1.36
Conceded: 1.64

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Groningen	Utrecht
PSV Eindhoven	L 1–2 HL 2–4 A	L 1–2 H
Sparta Rotterdam	L 0–2 AL 0–2 H	L 0–1 HL 1–2 A
Fortuna Sittard	L 1–2 HW 2–1 A	L 0–1 A
Heerenveen	W 2–0 AW 2–1 H	D 1–1 AD 2–2 H
NAC Breda	D 0–0 HW 2–1 A	D 1–1 A
GO Ahead Eagles	D 1–1 A	D 2–2 A
FC Volendam	W 3–0 H	L 1–2 AW 3–1 H
Excelsior	W 2–0 A	W 4–1 H
Ajax	L 0–2 A	W 2–1 H
PEC Zwolle	D 2–2 H	W 2–0 A
NEC Nijmegen	L 0–2 A	W 3–1 AW 1–0 H
Twente	D 1–1 H	D 1–1 H
Feyenoord	L 0–1 H	L 0–1 HL 2–3 A
Telstar	W 2–0 H	D 1–1 A
Heracles	W 4–0 H	W 4–0 H
AZ Alkmaar	L 1–4 A	L 1–4 A
Points	28 of 63 · 1.33 per game	27 of 63 · 1.29 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings

1 Groningen wins0 draws2 Utrecht wins

Goals per game0.67 – 1.33 Over 2.533% Both scored33% Clean sheets33% · 33%

14 Sep 2025Utrecht0–1Groningen
13 Apr 2025Utrecht3–1Groningen
20 Oct 2024Groningen0–1Utrecht

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Groningen	Utrecht	Forecast
Scored per game	1.32	1.50
Conceded per game	1.27	1.32
Match goals	2.59	2.82	2.73
Over 1.5	86%	77%
Over 2.5	45%	55%	51%
Over 3.5	18%	36%
Both teams scored	45%	68%	56%
Clean sheets	32%	14%
Failed to score	27%	18%
Games	22	22

	Groningen	Utrecht	Forecast
Scored per game	1.20	1.00
Conceded per game	1.10	1.70
Match goals	2.30	2.70	2.73
Over 1.5	90%	80%
Over 2.5	40%	50%	51%
Over 3.5	10%	20%
Both teams scored	40%	70%	56%
Clean sheets	40%	0%
Failed to score	30%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Groningen	Utrecht	League
Corners
Corners won	6.24	4.58
Corners conceded	4.38	4.79
Match total	10.62	9.37	10.27
Over 8.5	71% 15/21	53% 10/19
Over 9.5	43% 9/21	42% 8/19
Over 10.5	38% 8/21	42% 8/19
Cards
Cards	1.82	1.45
Opponent cards	1.77	2.14
Match total	3.59	3.59	3.53
Over 3.5	50% 11/22	50% 11/22
Over 4.5	27% 6/22	23% 5/22

	Groningen	Utrecht	League
Corners
Corners won	8.11	4.25
Corners conceded	3.56	6.00
Match total	11.67	10.25	10.27
Over 8.5	78% 7/9	75% 6/8
Over 9.5	33% 3/9	63% 5/8
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	63% 5/8
Cards
Cards	1.50	1.70
Opponent cards	1.80	2.60
Match total	3.30	4.30	3.53
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Serdar Gozubuyuk Netherlands · 92 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.02league 3.32

Red cards0.12league 0.20

Cards 5+42%league 31%

Fouls23.3league 21.6

Penalties0.32league 0.25

Home wins47%league 43%

Groningen5 with this referee

Record1-1-3 Cards · opp.1.2 · 2.0 Pens for · against1 · 1

D10 Jan 26H · NAC Breda0–01
L10 Aug 25A · AZ Alkmaar1–42
W3 May 25H · Waalwijk6–10
L18 Jan 25A · GO Ahead Eagles1–21
L20 Oct 24H · Utrecht0–12

Utrecht10 with this referee

Record3-5-2 Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 3 Reds1

W2 Nov 25H · NEC Nijmegen1–01
D6 Apr 25A · GO Ahead Eagles2–24
D15 Feb 25A · PSV Eindhoven2–22
D4 Dec 24A · Ajax2–20
W20 Oct 24A · Groningen1–04

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.