UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 Qualifying rounds Tue, Aug 4 · 18:30 Yaakov Turner Toto Stadium, Beer Sheva
Hapoel Beer Sheva 8th · 3 pts · 2 played
1–0Full time
FK Crvena Zvezda
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel1,948 kmRest days6 · 159Matches / 14d2 · 0
Real contextStrength only
Hapoel Beer Sheva—%
Draw—%
FK Crvena Zvezda—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Beer Sheva)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainJesus Gil Manzano
  • Cards per match 4.7
  • Penalties per match 0.44
  • Matches 55

Team strength

Hapoel Beer ShevaFK Crvena Zvezda
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
28 Current StrengthIn forecast 42
26 AttackIn forecast 40
31 DefenceIn forecast 39
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Hapoel Beer Sheva

Attack—
Defense risk—

FK Crvena Zvezda

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Hapoel Beer ShevaFK Crvena Zvezda
1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 4.50
1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.00
— xGVia Att/Def —
— xG allowedVia Att/Def —
— Goals minus xGContext —
100% Scored inContext 100%
50% Clean sheetsContext 100%
— ShotsContext —
— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —
— On target shareContext —
— Shots in the boxContext —
— Box shareContext —
— ConversionContext —
— OffsidesContext —
— Shots allowedContext —
— On target allowedVia Att/Def —
— BlocksContext —
— Goalkeeper savesContext —
— Save rateContext —
— PossessionIn forecast —
— PassesContext —
— Accurate passesContext —
— Pass accuracyContext —
— Team ratingContext —
— FoulsContext —
— Fouls sufferedContext —
3.00 Yellow cardsContext 0.50
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games
1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50
1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.50
— xGVia Att/Def 1.26
— xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.07
— Goals minus xGContext +0.24
70% Scored inContext 80%
40% Clean sheetsContext 70%
— ShotsContext 11.25
— Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.13
35% On target shareContext 28%
— Shots in the boxContext 7.25
— Box shareContext 65%
6% ConversionContext 7%
— OffsidesContext 2.38
— Shots allowedContext 10.25
— On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.14
— BlocksContext 3.43
— Goalkeeper savesContext 2.29
60% Save rateContext 73%
— PossessionIn forecast 48%
— PassesContext 443
— Accurate passesContext 357
— Pass accuracyContext 81%
— Team ratingContext 6.89
— FoulsContext 12.75
— Fouls sufferedContext 13.63
3.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.10
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Hapoel Beer Sheva
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km10,618 km in 14d
Schedule load10%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.
FK Crvena Zvezda
Rest159 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel1,948 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Hapoel Beer Sheva FK Crvena Zvezda
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 10Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match6UEFA Champions League 2026-2027, 29 Jul159UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - Knockout play-offs, 26 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km1,948 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways10,618 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 20 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Hapoel Beer Sheva Confirmed XI
4-3-3
1O. Marciano(G)
3M. Baltaxa 12I. Rotman 4M. Vítor 2G. Mizrahi
7E. Peretz 25Lucas Ventura 28N. Yehoshua
9Z. Ahmed 66I. Zlatanović 20J. East
FK Crvena Zvezda Confirmed XI
4-2-3-1
1Matheus(G)
23N. Tiknizyan 25S. Eraković 32D. Luckassen 66Y. Seol
15M. Abu Fani 33R. Krunić
4M. Ivanić 22V. Kostov 14O. Bukari
17Bruno Duarte

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Hapoel Beer Sheva Absences are shown before kick-off
FK Crvena Zvezda Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Hapoel Beer Sheva · Home 3.00points per game · 1 home games
W-D-L
1-0-0
Scored
2.00
Conceded
0.00
FK Crvena Zvezda · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

Hapoel Beer ShevaFK Crvena ZvezdaForecast
Scored per game 1.50—
Conceded per game 1.00—
Match goals 2.50—
Over 1.5 100%—
Over 2.5 50%—
Over 3.5 0%—
Both teams scored 50%—
Clean sheets 50%—
Failed to score 0%—
Games20
Hapoel Beer ShevaFK Crvena ZvezdaForecast
Scored per game 1.500.80
Conceded per game 1.000.80
Match goals 2.501.60
Over 1.5 100%50%
Over 2.5 50%10%
Over 3.5 0%0%
Both teams scored 50%30%
Clean sheets 50%50%
Failed to score 0%20%
Games210

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Hapoel Beer ShevaFK Crvena ZvezdaLeague
Corners
Corners won——
Corners conceded——
Match total——10.19
Over 8.5——
Over 9.5——
Over 10.5——
Cards
Cards3.000.50
Opponent cards2.501.00
Match total5.501.504.88
Over 3.550% 1/20% 0/2
Over 4.550% 1/20% 0/2
Hapoel Beer ShevaFK Crvena ZvezdaLeague
Corners
Corners won5.005.38
Corners conceded4.504.25
Match total9.509.6310.19
Over 8.550% 1/263% 5/8
Over 9.550% 1/263% 5/8
Over 10.550% 1/250% 4/8
Cards
Cards4.002.20
Opponent cards2.401.30
Match total6.403.504.88
Over 3.580% 8/1040% 4/10
Over 4.570% 7/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Jesus Gil Manzano Spain · 55 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.42league 4.31
Red cards0.24league 0.24
Cards 5+53%league 43%
Fouls24.8league 25.9
Penalties0.44league 0.34
Home wins44%league 48%
Hapoel Beer Sheva

No previous matches with this referee.

FK Crvena Zvezda1 with this referee
Record0-0-1 Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0 Pens for · against0 · 0
  • L11 Dec 24A · AC Milan1–22

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

Hapoel Beer Sheva1 games · scored 1 · conceded 2
0-15
16-30
31-45
1 1 46-60
61-75
1 76-90
FK Crvena Zvezda2 games · scored 9 · conceded 0
1 0-15
1 16-30
1 31-45
3 46-60
1 61-75
2 76-90
Hapoel Beer Sheva9 games · scored 8 · conceded 11
1 1 0-15
1 16-30
1 2 31-45
2 3 46-60
1 61-75
2 5 76-90
FK Crvena Zvezda10 games · scored 15 · conceded 5
1 1 0-15
2 1 16-30
2 31-45
5 46-60
1 1 61-75
4 2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.