Hapoel Beer Sheva
Attack—
Defense risk—
UEFA Champions League 2026-2027
Qualifying rounds Wed, Jul 29 · 18:30
Yaakov Turner Toto Stadium, Beer Sheva
Hapoel Beer Sheva
19th · 0 pts · 1 played
L
First leg1–2
2–0Full time
Vikingur Reykjavik
7th · 3 pts · 1 played
W
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel5,309 kmRest days7.9 · 7.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Hapoel Beer Sheva—%
Draw—%
Vikingur Reykjavik—%
Weather (Beer Sheva)
No weather data yet
RefereeAntoni Bandić
- Cards per match 6.5
- Penalties per match 0.88
- Matches 8
Team strength
Hapoel Beer ShevaVikingur Reykjavik
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
28
Current StrengthIn forecast
28
26
AttackIn forecast
26
31
DefenceIn forecast
29
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisVikingur Reykjavik
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Hapoel Beer ShevaVikingur Reykjavik
—
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.67
—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
—
Scored inContext
100%
—
Clean sheetsContext
33%
—
ShotsContext
—
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
—
On target shareContext
20%
—
Shots in the boxContext
—
—
Box shareContext
—
—
ConversionContext
20%
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
—
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
—
Save rateContext
50%
—
PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
—
—
Pass accuracyContext
—
—
Team ratingContext
—
—
FoulsContext
—
—
Fouls sufferedContext
—
—
Yellow cardsContext
1.33
—
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
—
xGVia Att/Def
0.92
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.16
—
Goals minus xGContext
+1.08
70%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
8.67
ShotsContext
7.50
3.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.50
39%
On target shareContext
33%
—
Shots in the boxContext
5.80
—
Box shareContext
65%
8%
ConversionContext
18%
—
OffsidesContext
1.33
9.00
Shots allowedContext
14.00
2.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
1.67
BlocksContext
3.83
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
60%
Save rateContext
70%
—
PossessionIn forecast
40%
—
PassesContext
341
—
Accurate passesContext
263
—
Pass accuracyContext
77%
—
Team ratingContext
6.81
14.33
FoulsContext
14.50
16.67
Fouls sufferedContext
11.33
3.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Hapoel Beer Sheva
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km10,618 km in 14d
Schedule load10%Low
Vikingur Reykjavik
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel5,309 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Hapoel Beer Sheva |
Vikingur Reykjavik |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 10 | Moderate · 20 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.9UEFA Champions League 2026-2027, 21 Jul | 7.9UEFA Champions League 2026-2027, 21 Jul |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 5,309 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 10,618 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 1 | 0 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | — |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Hapoel Beer Sheva
Confirmed XI
1O. Marciano(G)
3M. Baltaxa
4M. Vítor
44Djibril Diop
2G. Mizrahi
17K. Kangwa
25Lucas Ventura
28N. Yehoshua
9Z. Ahmed
66I. Zlatanović
20J. East
Vikingur Reykjavik
Confirmed XI
29A. Friðriksson(G)
9H. Guðjónsson
6G. Vatnhamar
4P. Ekroth
22K. Gunnarsson
20T. Ibrahimagic
11D. Hafsteinsson
10G. Sigurðsson
25V. Ingimundarson
21A. Þrándarson
19Ó. Borgþórsson
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Hapoel Beer Sheva
Absences are shown before kick-off
Vikingur Reykjavik
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Hapoel Beer Sheva · Home
No home games yet this season.
Vikingur Reykjavik · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Hapoel Beer Sheva wins0 draws1 Vikingur Reykjavik wins
Goals per game1.00 – 2.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 21 Jul 2026Vikingur Reykjavik2–1Hapoel Beer Sheva
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Hapoel Beer Sheva | Vikingur Reykjavik | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.00 | |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% | |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
| Hapoel Beer Sheva | Vikingur Reykjavik | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.00 | |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% | |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Hapoel Beer Sheva | Vikingur Reykjavik | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | — | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | — | 5.00 | |
| Match total | — | 9.00 | 9.80 |
| Over 8.5 | — | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 9.5 | — | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 10.5 | — | 0% 0/1 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 3.33 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 4.66 | 4.60 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/1 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/1 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Hapoel Beer Sheva | Vikingur Reykjavik | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.67 | 3.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 5.50 | |
| Match total | 8.67 | 8.83 | 9.80 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 1/3 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 1/3 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 1/3 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 4.10 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 6.40 | 5.30 | 4.60 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Antoni Bandić 8 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards6.25league 4.25
Red cards0.25league 0.27
Cards 5+75%league 41%
Fouls19.7league 26.3
Penalties0.88league 0.33
Home wins13%league 49%
Hapoel Beer ShevaNo previous matches with this referee.
Vikingur ReykjavikNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Hapoel Beer Sheva1 games · scored 1 · conceded 2
0-15
16-30
31-45
1
1
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
Vikingur Reykjavik3 games · scored 5 · conceded 3
0-15
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
61-75
2
76-90
Hapoel Beer Sheva10 games · scored 9 · conceded 12
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
3
3
46-60
1
61-75
2
6
76-90
Vikingur Reykjavik10 games · scored 20 · conceded 11
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
5
3
31-45
4
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
4
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.