Heart Of Midlothian
Attack—
Defense risk—
UEFA Europa League 2026-2027
Qualifying rounds Thu, Aug 13 · 19:45
Tynecastle Park, Edinburgh
Heart Of Midlothian
21st · 0 pts · 1 played
L
First leg1–6
1–1Full time
Benfica
4th · 6 pts · 3 played
LWW
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel1,966 kmRest days7 · 4Matches / 14d1 · 3
Real contextStrength only
Heart Of Midlothian—%
Draw—%
Benfica—%
Weather (Edinburgh)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsSander van der Eijk
- Cards per match 3.6
- Penalties per match 0.18
- Matches 66
Team strength
Heart Of MidlothianBenfica
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
33
Current StrengthIn forecast
82
37
AttackIn forecast
81
24
DefenceIn forecast
81
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBenfica
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Heart Of MidlothianBenfica
—
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
4.00
—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
—
Scored inContext
100%
—
Clean sheetsContext
33%
—
ShotsContext
—
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
—
On target shareContext
—
—
Shots in the boxContext
—
—
Box shareContext
—
—
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
—
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
—
Save rateContext
—
—
PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
—
—
Pass accuracyContext
—
—
Team ratingContext
—
—
FoulsContext
—
—
Fouls sufferedContext
—
—
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
—
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.90
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.26
xGVia Att/Def
2.73
1.00
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.99
+0.24
Goals minus xGContext
+0.17
80%
Scored inContext
100%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
14.78
ShotsContext
18.71
4.78
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.00
32%
On target shareContext
37%
9.33
Shots in the boxContext
14.71
65%
Box shareContext
79%
11%
ConversionContext
13%
1.88
OffsidesContext
1.71
11.00
Shots allowedContext
10.71
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.29
3.67
BlocksContext
2.14
2.29
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.67
59%
Save rateContext
79%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
390
PassesContext
425
296
Accurate passesContext
355
76%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.79
Team ratingContext
7.01
11.00
FoulsContext
11.25
11.70
Fouls sufferedContext
13.50
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Heart Of Midlothian
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km3,931 km in 14d
Schedule load10%Low
Benfica
D
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel1,966 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load35%Moderate
Form 41 · 1 pts vs 2.0 for an average club · -1.5 vs expected
- D9 AugH · Academico Viseu2–22.5 xPts
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Heart Of Midlothian |
Benfica |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 10 | Moderate · 35 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7UEFA Europa League 2026-2027, 6 Aug | 4Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 9 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,966 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 3,931 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 2 / 3 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 65.8 | 4 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Heart Of Midlothian
Confirmed XI
1B. Reus(G)
23J. Altena
6O. McEntee
17S. Findlay
5J. McCart
16B. Spittal
12T. Renaud
7C. Miller
19Severin Sabri Guendouz
15J. McPake
10Cláudio Braga
Benfica
Confirmed XI
24Samuel Soares(G)
17A. Dedić
16Manu
2C. Lenglet
62Jose Neto
20Richard Ríos
5E. Barrenechea
11D. Lukébakio
10H. Sudakov
21A. Schjelderup
22J. Durán
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Heart Of Midlothian
Absences are shown before kick-off
Benfica
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Heart Of Midlothian · Home
No home games yet this season.
Benfica · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Heart Of Midlothian wins0 draws1 Benfica wins
Goals per game1.00 – 6.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 6 Aug 2026Benfica6–1Heart Of Midlothian
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Heart Of Midlothian | Benfica | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 4.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 6.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 7.00 | 5.00 | |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 67% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 67% | |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 1 | 3 |
| Heart Of Midlothian | Benfica | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.33 | 2.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 4.00 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 4.33 | 4.10 | |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 90% | |
| Over 3.5 | 67% | 70% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 80% | |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 67% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Heart Of Midlothian | Benfica | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.00 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 8.00 | 9.08 |
| Over 8.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 4.00 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 3.33 | |
| Match total | 6.00 | 4.33 | 5.42 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 1/1 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 100% 1/1 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Heart Of Midlothian | Benfica | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 8.63 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.44 | 2.38 | |
| Match total | 10.44 | 11.01 | 9.08 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 88% 7/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.70 | 3.20 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 4.70 | 5.42 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Sander van der Eijk Netherlands · 66 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.36league 3.89
Red cards0.27league 0.19
Cards 5+32%league 43%
Fouls21.9league 29.6
Penalties0.18league 0.26
Home wins48%league 51%
Heart Of MidlothianNo previous matches with this referee.
BenficaNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Heart Of Midlothian1 games · scored 1 · conceded 6
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
2
76-90
Benfica3 games · scored 12 · conceded 3
2
0-15
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
1
76-90
Heart Of Midlothian9 games · scored 15 · conceded 16
2
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
4
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
4
2
61-75
2
6
76-90
Benfica10 games · scored 29 · conceded 12
9
0-15
5
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
4
2
46-60
2
4
61-75
7
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.