Scottish Premiership 2026-2027 Knockout phase Sun, Nov 29 · 15:00 Tynecastle Park, Edinburgh
Heart Of Midlothian 10th · 0 pts · 1 played
VS— Compare
Celtic 1st · 24 pts · 9 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel67 kmRest days42 · 2.8Matches / 14d0 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Heart Of Midlothian—%
Draw—%
Celtic—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Edinburgh)

Forecast from 14 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Heart Of Midlothian and Celtic. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Heart Of MidlothianCeltic
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
33 Current StrengthIn forecast 52
37 AttackIn forecast 74
24 DefenceIn forecast 50
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Heart Of Midlothian

Attack—
Defense risk—

Celtic

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Heart Of MidlothianCeltic
2.22 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.56
1.67 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.56
1.79 xGVia Att/Def 3.01
1.54 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.00
+0.43 Goals minus xGContext -0.45
100% Scored inContext 89%
22% Clean sheetsContext 44%
16.78 ShotsContext 20.33
5.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 9.22
32% On target shareContext 45%
11.78 Shots in the boxContext 15.11
71% Box shareContext 75%
13% ConversionContext 13%
2.00 OffsidesContext 1.67
10.44 Shots allowedContext 11.78
3.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.89
3.63 BlocksContext 3.56
2.17 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.22
50% Save rateContext 83%
54% PossessionIn forecast 58%
455 PassesContext 604
368 Accurate passesContext 533
81% Pass accuracyContext 88%
6.91 Team ratingContext 7.29
12.56 FoulsContext 10.78
14.78 Fouls sufferedContext 9.89
1.44 Yellow cardsContext 1.44
0.11 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games
2.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00
2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60
1.85 xGVia Att/Def 2.44
1.40 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.32
+0.25 Goals minus xGContext -0.44
100% Scored inContext 90%
20% Clean sheetsContext 30%
16.50 ShotsContext 17.00
5.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.70
33% On target shareContext 45%
11.75 Shots in the boxContext 12.20
72% Box shareContext 73%
14% ConversionContext 12%
2.00 OffsidesContext 1.44
10.38 Shots allowedContext 16.50
3.57 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.70
3.75 BlocksContext 5.20
2.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.10
52% Save rateContext 66%
52% PossessionIn forecast 56%
468 PassesContext 587
382 Accurate passesContext 516
82% Pass accuracyContext 88%
6.96 Team ratingContext 6.92
12.00 FoulsContext 11.70
15.00 Fouls sufferedContext 11.30
1.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.30
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Heart Of Midlothian
Rest42 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.
Celtic
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel67 km3,803 km in 14d
Schedule load18%Low
Form 32 · 0 pts vs 2.1 for an average club · -2.0 vs expected
  • L15 OctA · Benfica1–40.5 xPts
  • L17 SepH · Ferencvarosi TC1–31.5 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Heart Of Midlothian Celtic
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 18
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match42Scottish Premiership 2026-2027, 18 Oct2.8UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 26 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km67 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km3,803 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 0 / 01 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one763.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Heart Of Midlothian Last XI · not confirmed
4-4-1-1 · vs Celtic (A) 1–7, 18 Oct
1B. Reus(G)
3S. Kingsley 5J. McCart 64M. Fagan-Walcott 23J. Altena
15J. McPake 6O. McEntee 78L. Mendy 7C. Miller
19Severin Sabri Guendouz
10Cláudio Braga
Celtic Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Heart Of Midlothian (H) 7–1, 18 Oct
1V. Sinisalo(G)
63K. Tierney 5L. Scales 47D. Murray 51C. Donovan
22M. Baur 42C. McGregor
19C. Osmand 8E. Nygren 23H. Hassan
11Camilo Duran

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Heart Of Midlothian Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Celtic Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Heart Of Midlothian · Home No home games yet this season.
Celtic · Away 3.00points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
4-0-0
Scored
2.50
Conceded
0.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 6 this season

OpponentHeart Of MidlothianCeltic
ST Mirren W 5–0 H W 2–1 A
Kilmarnock D 1–1 A W 5–1 A
Falkirk L 1–2 A W 2–1 H
Dundee W 2–1 H W 1–0 H
ST Johnstone W 2–1 H W 1–0 A
Aberdeen L 1–2 A W 3–0 H
Points10 of 18 · 1.67 per game18 of 18 · 3.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings

4 Heart Of Midlothian wins1 draws5 Celtic wins
Goals per game1.40 – 2.30 Over 2.570% Both scored60% Clean sheets20% · 20%
  • 18 Oct 2026Celtic7–1Heart Of Midlothian
  • 16 May 2026Celtic3–1Heart Of Midlothian
  • 25 Jan 2026Heart Of Midlothian2–2Celtic
  • 7 Dec 2025Celtic1–2Heart Of Midlothian
  • 26 Oct 2025Heart Of Midlothian3–1Celtic
  • 29 Mar 2025Celtic3–0Heart Of Midlothian

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Heart Of MidlothianCelticForecast
Scored per game 1.002.56
Conceded per game 7.000.56
Match goals 8.003.11
Over 1.5 100%67%
Over 2.5 100%56%
Over 3.5 100%22%
Both teams scored 100%44%
Clean sheets 0%44%
Failed to score 0%11%
Games19
Heart Of MidlothianCelticForecast
Scored per game 0.602.00
Conceded per game 4.001.60
Match goals 4.603.60
Over 1.5 100%80%
Over 2.5 60%70%
Over 3.5 60%40%
Both teams scored 60%60%
Clean sheets 0%30%
Failed to score 40%10%
Games510

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Heart Of MidlothianCelticLeague
Corners
Corners won6.899.00
Corners conceded3.563.78
Match total10.4512.7811.42
Over 8.567% 6/9100% 9/9
Over 9.544% 4/978% 7/9
Over 10.533% 3/978% 7/9
Cards
Cards1.561.44
Opponent cards2.672.00
Match total4.233.443.72
Over 3.567% 6/956% 5/9
Over 4.544% 4/933% 3/9
Heart Of MidlothianCelticLeague
Corners
Corners won6.448.70
Corners conceded3.784.60
Match total10.2213.3011.42
Over 8.556% 5/9100% 10/10
Over 9.533% 3/980% 8/10
Over 10.533% 3/980% 8/10
Cards
Cards1.601.30
Opponent cards2.302.30
Match total3.903.603.72
Over 3.560% 6/1050% 5/10
Over 4.540% 4/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Heart Of Midlothian9 games · scored 20 · conceded 15
4 3 0-15
2 2 16-30
5 3 31-45
3 3 46-60
2 1 61-75
4 3 76-90
Celtic9 games · scored 23 · conceded 5
6 0-15
1 1 16-30
7 2 31-45
6 1 46-60
2 1 61-75
1 76-90
Heart Of Midlothian10 games · scored 21 · conceded 20
4 4 0-15
2 3 16-30
4 4 31-45
3 4 46-60
3 1 61-75
5 4 76-90
Celtic10 games · scored 20 · conceded 16
5 1 0-15
2 3 16-30
6 5 31-45
4 3 46-60
2 1 61-75
1 3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.