Heart Of Midlothian
Attack—
Defense risk—
UEFA Champions League 2026-2027
Qualifying rounds Tue, Jul 28 · 19:45
Tynecastle Park, Edinburgh
Heart Of Midlothian
25th · 0 pts · 1 played
L
First leg0–4
0–2Full time
Sturm Graz
5th · 3 pts · 1 played
W
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel1,616 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Heart Of Midlothian—%
Draw—%
Sturm Graz—%
Weather (Edinburgh)
No weather data yet
RefereeAndris Treimanis
- Cards per match 5.3
- Penalties per match 0.43
- Matches 37
Team strength
Heart Of MidlothianSturm Graz
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
33
Current StrengthIn forecast
38
37
AttackIn forecast
32
24
DefenceIn forecast
37
—
Form indexContext
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In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSturm Graz
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Heart Of MidlothianSturm Graz
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Goals scoredVia Att/Def
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—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
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—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
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—
Scored inContext
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—
Clean sheetsContext
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—
ShotsContext
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—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
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—
On target shareContext
—
—
Shots in the boxContext
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—
Box shareContext
—
—
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
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—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
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Save rateContext
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—
PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
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Pass accuracyContext
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Team ratingContext
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—
FoulsContext
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—
Fouls sufferedContext
—
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Yellow cardsContext
—
—
Red cardsContext
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1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.70
1.20
xGVia Att/Def
1.40
1.03
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.18
+0.30
Goals minus xGContext
+0.30
80%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
14.70
ShotsContext
17.10
4.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
33%
On target shareContext
26%
9.70
Shots in the boxContext
10.70
66%
Box shareContext
63%
10%
ConversionContext
10%
1.43
OffsidesContext
1.86
10.70
Shots allowedContext
12.90
2.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.78
3.67
BlocksContext
3.20
1.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.38
58%
Save rateContext
82%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
412
PassesContext
334
320
Accurate passesContext
248
78%
Pass accuracyContext
74%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.95
10.00
FoulsContext
11.40
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
9.70
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Heart Of Midlothian
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km3,232 km in 14d
Schedule load10%Low
Sturm Graz
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel1,616 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Heart Of Midlothian |
Sturm Graz |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 10 | Moderate · 20 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7UEFA Champions League 2026-2027, 21 Jul | 7UEFA Champions League 2026-2027, 21 Jul |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,616 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 3,232 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 1 | 0 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 9 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Heart Of Midlothian
Confirmed XI
1A. Schwolow(G)
18Harry Milne
3S. Kingsley
64M. Fagan-Walcott
23J. Altena
6O. McEntee
16B. Spittal
89A. Kyziridis
19Severin Sabri Guendouz
7C. Miller
10Cláudio Braga
Sturm Graz
Confirmed XI
53D. Khudyakov(G)
18E. Soglo
2J. Mitchell
5A. Vallci
28Jurgen Heil
43J. Hödl
4J. Gorenc Stankovič
39Luca Weinhandl
19Simon Seidl
20S. Jatta
17S. Włodarczyk
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Heart Of Midlothian
Absences are shown before kick-off
Sturm Graz
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Heart Of Midlothian · Home
No home games yet this season.
Sturm Graz · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Heart Of Midlothian wins0 draws1 Sturm Graz wins
Goals per game0.00 – 4.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets0% · 100%
- 21 Jul 2026Sturm Graz4–0Heart Of Midlothian
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Heart Of Midlothian | Sturm Graz | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.00 | 4.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 4.00 | 0.00 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 4.00 | |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 0% | |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 100% | |
| Failed to score | 100% | 0% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
| Heart Of Midlothian | Sturm Graz | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.00 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 4.00 | 1.22 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 2.22 | |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 56% | |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 11% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 33% | |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 100% | 44% | |
| Games | 1 | 9 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Heart Of Midlothian | Sturm Graz | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 12.00 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 12.00 | |
| Match total | 16.00 | 16.00 | 9.23 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 1/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 1/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 10.5 | 100% 1/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 3.00 | 4.77 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Heart Of Midlothian | Sturm Graz | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.11 | 5.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.78 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 10.89 | 10.70 | 9.23 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 78% 7/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.70 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 4.40 | 4.77 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Andris Treimanis 37 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.00league 4.24
Red cards0.27league 0.26
Cards 5+54%league 39%
Fouls26.9league 26.5
Penalties0.43league 0.35
Home wins51%league 48%
Heart Of Midlothian1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 4.0
Pens for · against1 · 1
- L24 Aug 23H · PAOK1–22
Sturm GrazNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Heart Of MidlothianSturm GrazHeart Of Midlothian9 games · scored 15 · conceded 10
2
0-15
2
3
16-30
3
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
61-75
5
2
76-90
Sturm Graz9 games · scored 13 · conceded 7
4
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
61-75
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.