Heerenveen
Attack+12%
Defense risk−10%
Our take
Heerenveen were slight favourites.
Heerenveen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (29 vs 23). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Heerenveen. Heerenveen were without D. Proper. Excelsior were without N. Naujoks. Heerenveen had 7 days of rest, Excelsior 5.1 and had to travel 151 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel151 kmRest days7 · 5.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Heerenveen56%
Draw22%
Excelsior22%
Heerenveen49%
Draw26%
Excelsior25%
Heerenveen56%
Draw22%
Excelsior22%
Heerenveen47%
Draw24%
Excelsior29%
Heerenveen55%
Draw23%
Excelsior23%
Over 2.5 65%
Both score 64%
Likeliest score 1–1
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Heerenveen)
13°CLight rain
- Precipitation 3.1 mm
- Wind 15 km/h
- Humidity 94%
Referee · NetherlandsRobin Hensgens
- Cards per match 3.0
- Penalties per match 0.06
- Matches 35
Team strength
Heerenveen
Excelsior
29
L90 StrengthIn forecast
23
31
Current StrengthIn forecast
21
36
AttackIn forecast
21
40
DefenceIn forecast
18
25
Form indexContext
23
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisExcelsior
Attack−4%
Defense risk0%
Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.
Playing style
HeerenveenExcelsior
1.38
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.38
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.75
1.07
xGVia Att/Def
1.89
1.71
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.80
+0.31
Goals minus xGContext
+0.11
63%
Scored inContext
100%
38%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
15.25
ShotsContext
11.50
5.88
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.13
39%
On target shareContext
36%
9.25
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
63%
Box shareContext
71%
9%
ConversionContext
17%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.00
15.75
Shots allowedContext
15.88
4.43
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
4.88
BlocksContext
4.63
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.38
72%
Save rateContext
68%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
490
PassesContext
378
419
Accurate passesContext
298
85%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.82
8.63
FoulsContext
11.75
10.88
Fouls sufferedContext
7.13
1.13
Yellow cardsContext
1.25
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.16
xGVia Att/Def
1.66
1.73
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.78
+0.14
Goals minus xGContext
+0.34
60%
Scored inContext
100%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
15.00
ShotsContext
11.60
5.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.90
38%
On target shareContext
34%
9.20
Shots in the boxContext
8.11
64%
Box shareContext
65%
9%
ConversionContext
17%
1.80
OffsidesContext
1.00
16.80
Shots allowedContext
15.30
4.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
5.20
BlocksContext
4.80
3.63
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.10
73%
Save rateContext
67%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
500
PassesContext
380
427
Accurate passesContext
301
85%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.80
8.40
FoulsContext
11.80
10.60
Fouls sufferedContext
7.40
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Heerenveen
DLDWL
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km343 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 25 · 5 pts vs 8.1 for an average club · -0.7 vs expected
Excelsior
WDLDL
Rest5.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel151 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 23 · 5 pts vs 8.3 for an average club · -1.9 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Heerenveen |
Excelsior |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Eredivisie 2026-2027, 9 Oct | 5.1Eredivisie 2026-2027, 11 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 151 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 343 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 8.7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Heerenveen
Confirmed XI
1B. Klaverboer(G)
19V. Zagaritis
3M. Willemsen
4S. Kersten
45O. Braude
8N. Courtens
16M. Linday
7M. Rivera
14L. Smans
20J. Trenskow
9D. Vente
Excelsior
Confirmed XI
1S. van Gassel(G)
15Simon Janssen
14J. Plug
4C. Widell
2E. da Silva Moreira
20L. Hartjes
3R. Meissen
8I. Yegoian
30Á. Þorsteinsson
19D. Garden
7Aymen Sliti
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Heerenveen
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals
Attack line −7.4% · Defence line −4.7% of weighted minutes
- MID D. Proper Starter 6.75 Att −7.4% Def −4.7%
Excelsior
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals
Attack line −8.8% · Defence line −5.4% of weighted minutes
- MID N. Naujoks Starter 6.97 Att −8.8% Def −5.4%
Total impact vs full squads
- Heerenveen+0.2 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Excelsior-0.1 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Heerenveen · Home
1.00points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-2
- Scored
- 0.75
- Conceded
- 1.25
Excelsior · Away
2.00points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-0
- Scored
- 2.75
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 4 this season
| Opponent | Heerenveen | Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| PSV Eindhoven | L 0–2 A | L 1–2 H |
| Sparta Rotterdam | W 4–0 A | W 2–1 H |
| Willem II | D 2–2 A | W 3–0 A |
| Ajax | D 2–2 A | D 2–2 A |
| Points | 5 of 12 · 1.25 per game | 7 of 12 · 1.75 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
2 Heerenveen wins0 draws2 Excelsior wins
Goals per game1.00 – 2.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 7 Mar 2026Excelsior1–2Heerenveen
- 4 Oct 2025Heerenveen2–1Excelsior
- 19 Jan 2024Excelsior3–0Heerenveen
- 23 Sep 2023Heerenveen0–3Excelsior
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Heerenveen | Excelsior | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.38 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.38 | 1.75 | |
| Match goals | 2.75 | 3.75 | 3.36 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 100% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 75% | 64% |
| Clean sheets | 38% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 38% | 0% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Heerenveen | Excelsior | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 3.70 | 3.36 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 90% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 80% | 64% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Heerenveen | Excelsior | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.25 | 4.71 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.38 | 4.57 | |
| Match total | 10.63 | 9.28 | 10.60 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 6/8 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.13 | 1.25 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.38 | 0.88 | |
| Match total | 2.51 | 2.13 | 2.67 |
| Over 3.5 | 13% 1/8 | 13% 1/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/8 | 0% 0/8 | |
| Heerenveen | Excelsior | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.70 | 4.38 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.70 | 4.63 | |
| Match total | 11.40 | 9.01 | 10.60 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 1.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 2.40 | 2.50 | 2.67 |
| Over 3.5 | 10% 1/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/10 | 0% 0/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Robin Hensgens Netherlands · 35 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.86league 2.68
Red cards0.17league 0.06
Cards 5+17%league 11%
Fouls22.2league 21.2
Penalties0.06league 0.22
Home wins37%league 31%
Heerenveen8 with this referee
Record6-0-2
Cards · opp.0.9 · 1.4
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds2
- W19 Sep 26A · Sparta Rotterdam4–00
- W11 Feb 26A · GO Ahead Eagles3–10
- W14 Dec 25A · Sparta Rotterdam3–02
- L13 Sep 25A · Feyenoord0–12
- L14 May 25A · GO Ahead Eagles0–10
Excelsior3 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.7
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W5 Sep 26A · Willem II3–01
- L2 Feb 24A · Almere City FC1–23
- D26 Aug 23H · Fortuna Sittard2–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Heerenveen8 games · scored 11 · conceded 11
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
4
61-75
2
2
76-90
Excelsior8 games · scored 16 · conceded 14
1
3
0-15
2
16-30
6
3
31-45
1
2
46-60
3
3
61-75
3
3
76-90
Heerenveen10 games · scored 13 · conceded 14
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
4
46-60
2
4
61-75
3
2
76-90
Excelsior10 games · scored 20 · conceded 17
2
4
0-15
2
16-30
7
3
31-45
2
3
46-60
4
3
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
