Heerenveen vs Groningen – 18 Jan 2026

Eredivisie Knockout phase Sun, Jan 18 · 11:15 Abe Lenstra Stadion, Heerenveen

Heerenveen 9th · 24 pts · 18 played LLWWD

First leg1–2 0–2Full time

Groningen 5th · 28 pts · 18 played LWWDD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Heerenveen were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on Heerenveen. Heerenveen had 7 days of rest, Groningen 7.6 and had to travel 52 km.

Away travel52 kmRest days7 · 7.6Matches / 14d1 · 1

Heerenveen45%

Draw26%

Groningen30%

Expected goals 1.60 – 1.26

Heerenveen45%

Draw27%

Groningen28%

Expected goals 1.53 – 1.17

Heerenveen46%

Draw26%

Groningen29%

Expected goals 1.61 – 1.24

Heerenveen37%

Draw26%

Groningen37%

Expected goals 1.43 – 1.41

Heerenveen44%

Draw27%

Groningen29%

Expected goals 1.52 – 1.19

Over 2.5 55% Both score 58% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Heerenveen)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsRob Dieperink

Cards per match 3.5
Penalties per match 0.25
Matches 28

Team strength

Heerenveen

Groningen

27 L90 StrengthIn forecast 26

31 Current StrengthIn forecast 30

36 AttackIn forecast 41

40 DefenceIn forecast 21

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Heerenveen

Attack—

Defense risk—

Groningen

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Heerenveen

Groningen

1.72 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.39

1.56 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.22

1.74 xGVia Att/Def 1.64

1.15 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.12

-0.02 Goals minus xGContext -0.25

83% Scored inContext 72%

11% Clean sheetsContext 33%

15.39 ShotsContext 15.56

5.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.53

36% On target shareContext 40%

9.94 Shots in the boxContext 8.78

63% Box shareContext 57%

11% ConversionContext 9%

2.18 OffsidesContext 1.93

9.89 Shots allowedContext 10.56

4.17 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.88

2.54 BlocksContext 2.53

2.56 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.73

61% Save rateContext 65%

52% PossessionIn forecast 52%

432 PassesContext 417

345 Accurate passesContext 336

80% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.82 Team ratingContext 6.84

11.44 FoulsContext 10.50

10.72 Fouls sufferedContext 10.28

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.56

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 18 and 18 games

1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10

1.54 xGVia Att/Def 1.91

1.18 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.05

+0.36 Goals minus xGContext -0.81

80% Scored inContext 60%

20% Clean sheetsContext 30%

15.30 ShotsContext 17.40

6.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.78

41% On target shareContext 35%

9.89 Shots in the boxContext 9.60

62% Box shareContext 56%

12% ConversionContext 6%

2.40 OffsidesContext 1.75

10.20 Shots allowedContext 9.30

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.40

2.33 BlocksContext 2.00

2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.38

63% Save rateContext 61%

52% PossessionIn forecast 55%

431 PassesContext 444

346 Accurate passesContext 363

80% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.80 Team ratingContext 6.85

12.60 FoulsContext 9.20

9.20 Fouls sufferedContext 9.50

1.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.10

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Heerenveen

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Groningen

Rest7.6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel52 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Heerenveen	Groningen
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 11 Jan	7.6Eredivisie 2025-2026, 10 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	52 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 1	0 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	14.2	7.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Heerenveen Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

22B. Klaverboer(G)

19V. Zagaritis 3M. Willemsen 4S. Kersten 45O. Braude

6J. van Overeem 16M. Linday

10R. Meerveld 8L. Brouwers 20J. Trenskow

9D. Vente

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Groningen Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1E. Vaessen(G)

43M. Peersman 4D. Janse 3T. Blokzijl 5M. Rente

6S. Resink 18T. Land

14J. Schreuders 10Y. Taha 17D. van der Werff

26T. van Bergen

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Heerenveen Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Groningen Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Heerenveen-0.8 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Groningen+0.8 pp

Home / Away this season

Heerenveen · Home 1.44points per game · 9 home games

W-D-L: 3-4-2
Scored: 1.89
Conceded: 1.78

Groningen · Away 1.44points per game · 9 away games

W-D-L: 4-1-4
Scored: 1.22
Conceded: 1.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Heerenveen	Groningen
Feyenoord	D 2–2 HL 0–1 A	L 0–1 H
Heracles	W 3–0 A	W 4–0 H
Sparta Rotterdam	W 3–0 A	L 0–2 H
PSV Eindhoven	L 0–2 H	L 2–4 A
PEC Zwolle	L 1–2 A	D 2–2 H
AZ Alkmaar	W 3–1 H	L 1–4 A
Fortuna Sittard	L 0–2 A	W 2–1 A
Ajax	D 1–1 A	L 0–2 A
NAC Breda	D 3–3 H	D 0–0 HW 2–1 A
Telstar	W 3–2 A	W 2–0 H
Excelsior	W 2–1 H	W 2–0 A
Utrecht	D 2–2 A	W 1–0 A
NEC Nijmegen	W 3–2 H	L 0–2 A
GO Ahead Eagles	D 2–2 H	D 1–1 A
Twente	L 1–2 H	D 1–1 H
FC Volendam	D 1–1 H	W 3–0 H
Points	24 of 51 · 1.41 per game	25 of 51 · 1.47 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings

1 Heerenveen wins0 draws2 Groningen wins

Goals per game1.00 – 1.33 Over 2.567% Both scored67% Clean sheets0% · 33%

16 Aug 2025Groningen2–1Heerenveen
25 Jan 2025Groningen1–0Heerenveen
22 Sep 2024Heerenveen2–1Groningen

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Heerenveen	Groningen	Forecast
Scored per game	1.72	1.39
Conceded per game	1.56	1.22
Match goals	3.28	2.61	2.86
Over 1.5	94%	83%
Over 2.5	72%	44%	55%
Over 3.5	39%	22%
Both teams scored	72%	44%	58%
Clean sheets	11%	33%
Failed to score	17%	28%
Games	18	18

	Heerenveen	Groningen	Forecast
Scored per game	1.90	1.10
Conceded per game	1.50	1.10
Match goals	3.40	2.20	2.86
Over 1.5	100%	90%
Over 2.5	70%	30%	55%
Over 3.5	40%	10%
Both teams scored	60%	40%	58%
Clean sheets	20%	30%
Failed to score	20%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Heerenveen	Groningen	League
Corners
Corners won	6.11	5.71
Corners conceded	4.39	4.29
Match total	10.50	10.00	10.21
Over 8.5	78% 14/18	65% 11/17
Over 9.5	56% 10/18	41% 7/17
Over 10.5	44% 8/18	35% 6/17
Cards
Cards	1.61	1.67
Opponent cards	1.56	1.89
Match total	3.17	3.56	3.55
Over 3.5	39% 7/18	50% 9/18
Over 4.5	22% 4/18	22% 4/18

	Heerenveen	Groningen	League
Corners
Corners won	6.50	7.00
Corners conceded	4.30	3.78
Match total	10.80	10.78	10.21
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	1.40	1.20
Opponent cards	0.80	2.20
Match total	2.20	3.40	3.55
Over 3.5	10% 1/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	10% 1/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Rob Dieperink Netherlands · 28 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.36league 3.33

Red cards0.18league 0.21

Cards 5+32%league 31%

Fouls21.9league 21.6

Penalties0.25league 0.28

Home wins29%league 45%

Heerenveen1 with this referee

Record0-0-1 Cards · opp.1.0 · 3.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

L30 Sep 23A · Twente0–11

Groningen3 with this referee

Record2-0-1 Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W25 Oct 25A · Fortuna Sittard2–11
W29 Aug 25H · Heracles4–02
L29 Sep 24H · GO Ahead Eagles0–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.