Heerenveen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Heerenveen were slight favourites.
Heerenveen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (23 vs 15). Heerenveen had 5.3 days of rest, NAC Breda 6 and had to travel 171 km.
Away travel171 kmRest days5.3 · 6Matches / 14d1 · 1
Heerenveen52%
Draw25%
NAC Breda23%
Heerenveen51%
Draw25%
NAC Breda23%
Heerenveen52%
Draw25%
NAC Breda23%
Heerenveen44%
Draw26%
NAC Breda29%
Heerenveen51%
Draw25%
NAC Breda23%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Heerenveen)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsMartin Van den Kerkhof
- Cards per match 2.7
- Penalties per match 0.19
- Matches 27
Team strength
Heerenveen
NAC Breda
23
L90 StrengthIn forecast
15
31
Current StrengthIn forecast
14
36
AttackIn forecast
19
40
DefenceIn forecast
19
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNAC Breda
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
HeerenveenNAC Breda
1.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.11
1.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.78
2.06
xGVia Att/Def
1.36
1.30
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.93
-0.39
Goals minus xGContext
-0.25
89%
Scored inContext
67%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
15.44
ShotsContext
12.33
4.89
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
32%
On target shareContext
36%
9.89
Shots in the boxContext
8.44
64%
Box shareContext
65%
11%
ConversionContext
9%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.29
10.44
Shots allowedContext
14.89
4.56
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.00
3.00
BlocksContext
3.44
2.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.11
61%
Save rateContext
69%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
427
PassesContext
385
340
Accurate passesContext
304
80%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.80
10.56
FoulsContext
12.67
13.22
Fouls sufferedContext
13.67
1.67
Yellow cardsContext
1.67
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.11
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
2.06
xGVia Att/Def
1.50
1.24
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.90
-0.36
Goals minus xGContext
-0.40
90%
Scored inContext
70%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
14.70
ShotsContext
12.80
4.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.11
33%
On target shareContext
36%
9.60
Shots in the boxContext
8.60
67%
Box shareContext
64%
12%
ConversionContext
9%
2.14
OffsidesContext
2.25
10.40
Shots allowedContext
14.50
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.00
2.67
BlocksContext
3.40
2.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.20
64%
Save rateContext
70%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
419
PassesContext
399
331
Accurate passesContext
319
79%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.84
11.40
FoulsContext
12.20
12.50
Fouls sufferedContext
13.20
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Heerenveen
Rest5.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km204 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
NAC Breda
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel171 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Heerenveen |
NAC Breda |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.3Eredivisie 2025-2026, 19 Oct | 6Eredivisie 2025-2026, 18 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 171 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 204 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.9 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Heerenveen
Confirmed XI
22B. Klaverboer(G)
19V. Zagaritis
3M. Willemsen
6J. van Overeem
45O. Braude
8L. Brouwers
16M. Linday
7M. Rivera
10R. Meerveld
20J. Trenskow
9D. Vente
NAC Breda
Confirmed XI
31K. Lamprou(G)
4B. Kemper
22R. Hillen
12L. Greiml
25C. Valerius
14K. Sowah
90L. Holtby
16M. Balard
2B. Lucassen
17S. van Hooijdonk
26P. Reulen
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Heerenveen
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
NAC Breda
Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Heerenveen+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- NAC Breda+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Heerenveen · Home
1.60points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-1
- Scored
- 1.80
- Conceded
- 1.60
NAC Breda · Away
0.25points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-3
- Scored
- 0.75
- Conceded
- 2.25
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 4 this season
| Opponent | Heerenveen | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| NEC Nijmegen | W 3–2 H | L 0–3 A |
| Feyenoord | L 0–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| Twente | L 1–2 H | D 2–2 A |
| Groningen | L 1–2 A | L 1–2 H |
| Points | 3 of 12 · 0.75 per game | 1 of 12 · 0.25 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
2 Heerenveen wins0 draws0 NAC Breda wins
Goals per game4.00 – 1.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 12 Jan 2025NAC Breda2–4Heerenveen
- 31 Aug 2024Heerenveen4–0NAC Breda
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Heerenveen | NAC Breda | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.67 | 1.11 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.67 | 1.78 | |
| Match goals | 3.33 | 2.89 | 2.86 |
| Over 1.5 | 89% | 89% | |
| Over 2.5 | 78% | 78% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 44% | 22% | |
| Both teams scored | 89% | 67% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 11% | 33% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| Heerenveen | NAC Breda | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.67 | 1.11 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.67 | 1.78 | |
| Match goals | 3.33 | 2.89 | 2.86 |
| Over 1.5 | 89% | 89% | |
| Over 2.5 | 78% | 78% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 44% | 22% | |
| Both teams scored | 89% | 67% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 11% | 33% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Heerenveen | NAC Breda | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.22 | 4.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.67 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 10.89 | 8.44 | 9.92 |
| Over 8.5 | 89% 8/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.89 | 1.89 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.33 | 2.33 | |
| Match total | 4.22 | 4.22 | 3.76 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 6/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 3/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Heerenveen | NAC Breda | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.80 | 4.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 10.30 | 8.40 | 9.92 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 4.00 | 3.76 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Martin Van den Kerkhof Netherlands · 27 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.41league 3.52
Red cards0.33league 0.21
Cards 5+19%league 36%
Fouls18.4league 22.5
Penalties0.19league 0.25
Home wins44%league 48%
Heerenveen2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W4 Apr 25H · Willem II3–10
- W28 Oct 23H · Heracles3–02
NAC Breda5 with this referee
Record2-2-1
Cards · opp.1.4 · 1.2
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W17 Aug 25H · Fortuna Sittard2–12
- D24 Apr 25A · AZ Alkmaar1–11
- D31 Jan 25H · Heracles1–11
- W30 Nov 24H · Almere City FC1–01
- L29 Sep 24A · Twente0–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Heerenveen9 games · scored 15 · conceded 15
2
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
6
76-90
NAC Breda9 games · scored 10 · conceded 16
1
4
0-15
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
4
46-60
2
61-75
3
4
76-90
Heerenveen10 games · scored 17 · conceded 15
3
3
0-15
3
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
6
76-90
NAC Breda10 games · scored 11 · conceded 17
1
4
0-15
3
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
4
46-60
2
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
