Heerenveen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Heerenveen were clear favourites.
Heerenveen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (32 vs 17). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Heerenveen. Heerenveen had 6.2 days of rest, PEC Zwolle 6.3 and had to travel 51 km.
Away travel51 kmRest days6.2 · 6.3Matches / 14d2 · 2
Heerenveen61%
Draw21%
PEC Zwolle17%
Heerenveen57%
Draw23%
PEC Zwolle20%
Heerenveen61%
Draw21%
PEC Zwolle17%
Heerenveen54%
Draw23%
PEC Zwolle23%
Heerenveen61%
Draw21%
PEC Zwolle18%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Heerenveen)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsRichard Martens
- Cards per match 2.9
- Penalties per match 0.22
- Matches 18
Team strength
Heerenveen
PEC Zwolle
32
L90 StrengthIn forecast
17
31
Current StrengthIn forecast
16
36
AttackIn forecast
17
40
DefenceIn forecast
14
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisPEC Zwolle
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
HeerenveenPEC Zwolle
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.50
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.50
0.88
xGVia Att/Def
0.64
1.89
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.81
+0.62
Goals minus xGContext
-0.14
100%
Scored inContext
50%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
10.50
ShotsContext
7.50
6.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.50
57%
On target shareContext
33%
6.50
Shots in the boxContext
4.50
61%
Box shareContext
60%
14%
ConversionContext
7%
2.50
OffsidesContext
—
20.50
Shots allowedContext
26.50
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
8.00
6.50
BlocksContext
8.50
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
6.00
100%
Save rateContext
75%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
31%
468
PassesContext
262
400
Accurate passesContext
185
86%
Pass accuracyContext
71%
7.02
Team ratingContext
6.69
8.50
FoulsContext
9.00
7.50
Fouls sufferedContext
10.50
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.50
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.50
1.57
xGVia Att/Def
1.17
1.65
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.85
-0.07
Goals minus xGContext
-0.17
70%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
12.40
ShotsContext
9.70
5.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.20
42%
On target shareContext
33%
8.50
Shots in the boxContext
6.10
70%
Box shareContext
61%
12%
ConversionContext
10%
1.50
OffsidesContext
2.00
17.90
Shots allowedContext
18.30
5.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
7.00
5.44
BlocksContext
4.90
4.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.50
77%
Save rateContext
64%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
458
PassesContext
357
379
Accurate passesContext
275
83%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.94
Team ratingContext
6.64
9.30
FoulsContext
11.80
7.70
Fouls sufferedContext
11.10
0.90
Yellow cardsContext
0.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Heerenveen
WD
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km190 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 60 · 4 pts vs 2.9 for an average club · +1.9 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Heerenveen |
PEC Zwolle |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.2Eredivisie 2026-2027, 16 Aug | 6.3Eredivisie 2026-2027, 16 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 51 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 190 km | 127 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Heerenveen
Confirmed XI
22B. Klaverboer(G)
19V. Zagaritis
3M. Willemsen
4S. Kersten
45O. Braude
6D. Proper
16M. Linday
7M. Rivera
10R. Meerveld
20J. Trenskow
9D. Vente
PEC Zwolle
Confirmed XI
1J. Schendelaar(G)
33D. van der Haar
24N. Viergever
28S. Graves
3O. Aertssen
8T. Sommer
30R. Thomas
9E. Sørensen
25T. Oosting
11D. Mbayo
10Koen Kostons
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Heerenveen
Absences are shown before kick-off
PEC Zwolle
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Heerenveen+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- PEC Zwolle+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Heerenveen · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
PEC Zwolle · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 3.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Heerenveen | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| Ajax | D 2–2 A | L 0–2 H |
| Twente | W 1–0 H | L 1–3 A |
| Points | 4 of 6 · 2.00 per game | 0 of 6 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
1 Heerenveen wins3 draws1 PEC Zwolle wins
Goals per game1.80 – 1.60
Over 2.560%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 15 Feb 2026Heerenveen4–2PEC Zwolle
- 28 Nov 2025PEC Zwolle2–1Heerenveen
- 16 Feb 2025PEC Zwolle1–1Heerenveen
- 6 Oct 2024Heerenveen1–1PEC Zwolle
- 13 Jan 2024PEC Zwolle2–2Heerenveen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Heerenveen | PEC Zwolle | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 0.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 2.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 3.00 | 2.95 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Heerenveen | PEC Zwolle | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 2.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 3.50 | 2.95 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Heerenveen | PEC Zwolle | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.00 | 2.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.50 | 8.00 | |
| Match total | 10.50 | 10.50 | 11.11 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 2/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 2.50 | 2.16 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Heerenveen | PEC Zwolle | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.78 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.11 | 5.90 | |
| Match total | 10.89 | 9.90 | 11.11 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.90 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 1.20 | |
| Match total | 2.30 | 2.20 | 2.16 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 2/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Richard Martens Netherlands · 18 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.83league 2.05
Red cards0.11league 0.10
Cards 5+17%league 10%
Fouls20.3league 20.9
Penalties0.22league 0.00
Home wins50%league 30%
Heerenveen2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.5
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W4 Oct 25H · Excelsior2–11
- W1 Dec 23H · Almere City FC3–01
PEC Zwolle1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L10 May 26A · Fortuna Sittard2–31
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Heerenveen2 games · scored 3 · conceded 2
1
0-15
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
PEC Zwolle2 games · scored 1 · conceded 5
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
2
76-90
Heerenveen10 games · scored 15 · conceded 14
1
4
0-15
1
2
16-30
5
2
31-45
4
4
46-60
1
2
61-75
3
76-90
PEC Zwolle10 games · scored 10 · conceded 25
1
4
0-15
4
2
16-30
1
31-45
2
4
46-60
1
6
61-75
2
8
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
