Heerenveen vs PSV Eindhoven – 6 Dec 2025

Eredivisie Knockout phase Sat, Dec 6 · 15:30 Abe Lenstra Stadion, Heerenveen

Heerenveen 10th · 17 pts · 14 played DDLWL

0–2Full time

PSV Eindhoven 1st · 37 pts · 14 played WWWWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

PSV Eindhoven were clear favourites.

PSV Eindhoven were the stronger side on L90 Strength (82 vs 23). Heerenveen had 7.9 days of rest, PSV Eindhoven 6.2 and had to travel 171 km.

Away travel171 kmRest days7.9 · 6.2Matches / 14d2 · 2

Heerenveen11%

Draw18%

PSV Eindhoven70%

Expected goals 0.85 – 2.34

Heerenveen12%

Draw19%

PSV Eindhoven69%

Expected goals 0.80 – 2.22

Heerenveen11%

Draw18%

PSV Eindhoven71%

Expected goals 0.86 – 2.40

Heerenveen8%

Draw15%

PSV Eindhoven77%

Expected goals 0.76 – 2.62

Heerenveen12%

Draw20%

PSV Eindhoven68%

Expected goals 0.79 – 2.17

Over 2.5 62% Both score 52% Likeliest score 0–2

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Heerenveen)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsSerdar Gozubuyuk

Cards per match 4.2
Penalties per match 0.32
Matches 82

Team strength

Heerenveen

PSV Eindhoven

23 L90 StrengthIn forecast 82

31 Current StrengthIn forecast 71

36 AttackIn forecast 60

40 DefenceIn forecast 64

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Heerenveen

Attack—

Defense risk—

PSV Eindhoven

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Heerenveen

PSV Eindhoven

1.64 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 3.14

1.71 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.21

1.97 xGVia Att/Def 1.91

1.29 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.07

-0.33 Goals minus xGContext +1.23

86% Scored inContext 93%

0% Clean sheetsContext 29%

15.64 ShotsContext 17.79

5.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.14

35% On target shareContext 40%

10.31 Shots in the boxContext 12.00

64% Box shareContext 69%

11% ConversionContext 18%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.00

10.14 Shots allowedContext 11.64

4.29 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.23

2.89 BlocksContext 3.58

2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.92

58% Save rateContext 69%

53% PossessionIn forecast 60%

428 PassesContext 541

342 Accurate passesContext 470

80% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.85 Team ratingContext 7.11

11.43 FoulsContext 12.14

11.50 Fouls sufferedContext 8.21

1.57 Yellow cardsContext 1.21

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 14 and 14 games

1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 3.40

1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.98 xGVia Att/Def 1.68

1.38 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.87

-0.18 Goals minus xGContext +1.72

80% Scored inContext 100%

0% Clean sheetsContext 30%

14.80 ShotsContext 14.80

5.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.80

39% On target shareContext 39%

9.78 Shots in the boxContext 10.30

64% Box shareContext 71%

12% ConversionContext 23%

1.83 OffsidesContext 2.71

10.90 Shots allowedContext 11.30

4.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.89

3.00 BlocksContext 3.13

2.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.13

57% Save rateContext 76%

52% PossessionIn forecast 56%

421 PassesContext 512

336 Accurate passesContext 447

80% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.79 Team ratingContext 7.01

11.80 FoulsContext 11.80

11.20 Fouls sufferedContext 7.50

1.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.20

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Heerenveen

Rest7.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km102 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

PSV Eindhoven

Rest6.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel171 km102 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Heerenveen	PSV Eindhoven
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 28 Nov	6.2Eredivisie 2025-2026, 30 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	171 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	102 km	102 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 2 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7.8	7.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Heerenveen Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

22B. Klaverboer(G)

19V. Zagaritis 3M. Willemsen 4S. Kersten 45O. Braude

6J. van Overeem 16M. Linday

7M. Rivera 8L. Brouwers 20J. Trenskow

9D. Vente

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

PSV Eindhoven Confirmed XI

4-3-3

32M. Kovář(G)

2A. Salah-Eddine 3Yarek Gąsiorowski 22J. Schouten 8S. Dest

10P. Wanner 23J. Veerman 20G. Til

34I. Saibari 9R. Pepi 27D. Man

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Heerenveen Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

PSV Eindhoven Scores -0.10 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Heerenveen+0.3 pp
Draw+0.5 pp
PSV Eindhoven-0.8 pp

Home / Away this season

Heerenveen · Home 1.71points per game · 7 home games

W-D-L: 3-3-1
Scored: 2.14
Conceded: 1.71

PSV Eindhoven · Away 3.00points per game · 7 away games

W-D-L: 7-0-0
Scored: 3.14
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 13 this season

Opponent	Heerenveen	PSV Eindhoven
PEC Zwolle	L 1–2 A	W 4–0 A
AZ Alkmaar	W 3–1 H	W 5–1 A
Fortuna Sittard	L 0–2 A	W 5–2 H
Ajax	D 1–1 A	D 2–2 H
NAC Breda	D 3–3 H	W 1–0 A
Telstar	W 3–2 A	L 0–2 H
Excelsior	W 2–1 H	W 2–1 A
NEC Nijmegen	W 3–2 H	W 5–3 A
Feyenoord	L 0–1 A	W 3–2 A
GO Ahead Eagles	D 2–2 H	W 2–1 H
Twente	L 1–2 H	W 2–0 A
Groningen	L 1–2 A	W 4–2 H
FC Volendam	D 1–1 H	W 3–0 H
Points	16 of 39 · 1.23 per game	34 of 39 · 2.62 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings

1 Heerenveen wins0 draws2 PSV Eindhoven wins

Goals per game0.67 – 1.33 Over 2.533% Both scored33% Clean sheets33% · 33%

8 Mar 2025PSV Eindhoven2–1Heerenveen
14 Dec 2024Heerenveen1–0PSV Eindhoven
7 Dec 2023PSV Eindhoven2–0Heerenveen

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Heerenveen	PSV Eindhoven	Forecast
Scored per game	1.64	3.14
Conceded per game	1.71	1.21
Match goals	3.36	4.36	3.19
Over 1.5	93%	93%
Over 2.5	71%	79%	62%
Over 3.5	43%	57%
Both teams scored	86%	64%	52%
Clean sheets	0%	29%
Failed to score	14%	7%
Games	14	14

	Heerenveen	PSV Eindhoven	Forecast
Scored per game	1.80	3.20
Conceded per game	1.70	1.20
Match goals	3.50	4.40	3.19
Over 1.5	90%	90%
Over 2.5	70%	90%	62%
Over 3.5	50%	60%
Both teams scored	80%	70%	52%
Clean sheets	0%	30%
Failed to score	20%	0%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Heerenveen	PSV Eindhoven	League
Corners
Corners won	6.07	6.07
Corners conceded	4.57	4.21
Match total	10.64	10.28	9.89
Over 8.5	86% 12/14	71% 10/14
Over 9.5	57% 8/14	71% 10/14
Over 10.5	50% 7/14	50% 7/14
Cards
Cards	1.71	1.21
Opponent cards	1.86	1.50
Match total	3.57	2.71	3.58
Over 3.5	50% 7/14	29% 4/14
Over 4.5	29% 4/14	14% 2/14

	Heerenveen	PSV Eindhoven	League
Corners
Corners won	5.80	5.40
Corners conceded	4.80	4.50
Match total	10.60	9.90	9.89
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	1.50	1.20
Opponent cards	1.60	1.40
Match total	3.10	2.60	3.58
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Serdar Gozubuyuk Netherlands · 82 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.09league 3.35

Red cards0.12league 0.22

Cards 5+44%league 32%

Fouls23.5league 22.0

Penalties0.32league 0.28

Home wins48%league 49%

Heerenveen2 with this referee

Record1-0-1 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 1

W10 Nov 24H · GO Ahead Eagles1–02
L17 Sep 24A · Twente0–22

PSV Eindhoven11 with this referee

Record5-4-2 Cards · opp.1.6 · 1.9 Pens for · against0 · 1

W9 Nov 25A · AZ Alkmaar5–11
D21 Sep 25H · Ajax2–21
W18 May 25A · Sparta Rotterdam3–12
L30 Mar 25H · Ajax0–20
D15 Feb 25H · Utrecht2–22

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.