Heerenveen vs Telstar – 13 Sep 2026

Eredivisie Gameweek 6 Sun, Sep 13 · 13:30 Abe Lenstra Stadion, Heerenveen

Heerenveen 12th · 5 pts · 5 played WDLDL

0–0Full time

Telstar 15th · 4 pts · 5 played WLLDL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Heerenveen were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on Heerenveen. Heerenveen had 7 days of rest, Telstar 3.8 and had to travel 102 km.

Away travel102 kmRest days7 · 3.8Matches / 14d2 · 3

Heerenveen49%

Draw23%

Telstar28%

Expected goals 1.76 – 1.27

Heerenveen47%

Draw25%

Telstar27%

Expected goals 1.57 – 1.14

Heerenveen50%

Draw23%

Telstar27%

Expected goals 1.79 – 1.25

Heerenveen41%

Draw24%

Telstar35%

Expected goals 1.57 – 1.43

Heerenveen48%

Draw23%

Telstar28%

Expected goals 1.77 – 1.30

Over 2.5 58% Both score 60% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Heerenveen)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsSerdar Gozubuyuk

Cards per match 4.0
Penalties per match 0.27
Matches 110

Team strength

Heerenveen

Telstar

27 L90 StrengthIn forecast 23

31 Current StrengthIn forecast 22

36 AttackIn forecast 24

40 DefenceIn forecast 13

21 Form indexContext 17

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Heerenveen

Attack—

Defense risk—

Telstar

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Heerenveen

Telstar

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.20

0.95 xGVia Att/Def 1.40

1.75 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.25

+0.45 Goals minus xGContext -0.40

80% Scored inContext 60%

20% Clean sheetsContext 0%

12.80 ShotsContext 8.20

5.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.40

42% On target shareContext 29%

8.20 Shots in the boxContext 7.67

65% Box shareContext 74%

11% ConversionContext 12%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.40

17.60 Shots allowedContext 17.00

5.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.60

5.20 BlocksContext 4.40

3.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.40

70% Save rateContext 67%

52% PossessionIn forecast 42%

496 PassesContext 363

423 Accurate passesContext 285

85% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.85 Team ratingContext 6.69

7.40 FoulsContext 10.80

9.80 Fouls sufferedContext 14.40

1.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.20

This league season, per match · 5 and 5 games

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.80

1.34 xGVia Att/Def 1.34

1.60 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.74

-0.04 Goals minus xGContext +0.26

70% Scored inContext 80%

30% Clean sheetsContext 10%

12.60 ShotsContext 9.10

4.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.50

38% On target shareContext 39%

8.40 Shots in the boxContext 7.50

68% Box shareContext 74%

10% ConversionContext 18%

1.63 OffsidesContext 1.50

17.70 Shots allowedContext 15.40

5.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.90

5.40 BlocksContext 4.20

3.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.10

74% Save rateContext 70%

54% PossessionIn forecast 44%

481 PassesContext 343

404 Accurate passesContext 265

84% Pass accuracyContext 77%

6.91 Team ratingContext 6.80

8.00 FoulsContext 11.20

9.00 Fouls sufferedContext 12.00

1.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Heerenveen WDLDL

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km332 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 21 · 5 pts vs 8.7 for an average club · -1.6 vs expected

L6 SepH · AZ Alkmaar2–30.9 xPts
D30 AugA · Willem II2–21.7 xPts
L22 AugH · PEC Zwolle0–22.1 xPts
D16 AugA · Ajax2–20.8 xPts
W9 AugH · Twente1–01.3 xPts

Telstar WLLDL

Rest3.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel102 km310 km in 14d

Schedule load15%Low

Form 17 · 4 pts vs 8.5 for an average club · -2.4 vs expected

L9 SepA · Twente0–10.6 xPts
D6 SepH · Cambuur2–21.8 xPts
L30 AugH · Ajax0–41.1 xPts
L14 AugH · Sparta Rotterdam1–32.0 xPts
W8 AugA · NEC Nijmegen2–10.8 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Heerenveen	Telstar
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 15
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Eredivisie 2026-2027, 6 Sep	3.8Eredivisie 2026-2027, 9 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	102 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	332 km	310 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	2 / 3 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	6.2	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Heerenveen Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

22B. Klaverboer(G)

19V. Zagaritis 3M. Willemsen 4S. Kersten 45O. Braude

36N. Courtens 14L. Smans

7M. Rivera 10R. Meerveld 20J. Trenskow

9D. Vente

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Telstar Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1R. Koeman(G)

43M. Peersman 4A. Soualhia 16S. Valk

2J. Hardeveld 17N. Rossen 30T. Owusu 3G. Alders

27P. Brouwer 7Rui Mendes

11N. Þórisson

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Heerenveen Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Telstar Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Heerenveen-1.3 pp
Draw+0.2 pp
Telstar+1.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Heerenveen · Home 1.00points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-2
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.67

Telstar · Away 1.50points per game · 2 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-1
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

Opponent	Heerenveen	Telstar
Ajax	D 2–2 A	L 0–4 H
Twente	W 1–0 H	L 0–1 A
Points	4 of 6 · 2.00 per game	0 of 6 · 0.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

2 Heerenveen wins0 draws0 Telstar wins

Goals per game3.00 – 1.00 Over 2.5100% Both scored50% Clean sheets50% · 0%

14 Mar 2026Heerenveen3–0Telstar
19 Oct 2025Telstar2–3Heerenveen

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Heerenveen	Telstar	Forecast
Scored per game	1.40	1.00
Conceded per game	1.80	2.20
Match goals	3.20	3.20	3.04
Over 1.5	80%	80%
Over 2.5	60%	80%	58%
Over 3.5	60%	60%
Both teams scored	60%	60%	60%
Clean sheets	20%	0%
Failed to score	20%	40%
Games	5	5

	Heerenveen	Telstar	Forecast
Scored per game	1.10	1.60
Conceded per game	1.50	1.80
Match goals	2.60	3.40	3.04
Over 1.5	80%	90%
Over 2.5	50%	80%	58%
Over 3.5	30%	50%
Both teams scored	40%	70%	60%
Clean sheets	30%	10%
Failed to score	40%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Heerenveen	Telstar	League
Corners
Corners won	4.40	4.00
Corners conceded	6.00	6.60
Match total	10.40	10.60	10.47
Over 8.5	60% 3/5	60% 3/5
Over 9.5	40% 2/5	60% 3/5
Over 10.5	40% 2/5	60% 3/5
Cards
Cards	1.00	2.00
Opponent cards	1.60	1.60
Match total	2.60	3.60	2.70
Over 3.5	20% 1/5	60% 3/5
Over 4.5	0% 0/5	20% 1/5

	Heerenveen	Telstar	League
Corners
Corners won	4.89	4.25
Corners conceded	6.33	6.50
Match total	11.22	10.75	10.47
Over 8.5	67% 6/9	75% 6/8
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	75% 6/8
Over 10.5	56% 5/9	63% 5/8
Cards
Cards	1.00	1.80
Opponent cards	1.60	1.90
Match total	2.60	3.70	2.70
Over 3.5	20% 2/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	10% 1/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Serdar Gozubuyuk Netherlands · 110 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.89league 2.72

Red cards0.12league 0.06

Cards 5+42%league 14%

Fouls22.9league 20.9

Penalties0.27league 0.24

Home wins49%league 26%

Heerenveen4 with this referee

Record2-0-2 Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.8 Pens for · against0 · 1

W3 May 26A · FC Volendam2–02
L6 Dec 25H · PSV Eindhoven0–21
W10 Nov 24H · GO Ahead Eagles1–02
L17 Sep 24A · Twente0–22

Telstar4 with this referee

Record2-0-2 Cards · opp.1.8 · 3.5 Pens for · against0 · 1

W10 May 26H · Heracles3–01
W27 Feb 26H · NAC Breda3–01
L5 Oct 25A · AZ Alkmaar1–22
L15 Aug 25H · PEC Zwolle0–23

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.