Heerenveen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Twente were the stronger side on L90 Strength (32 vs 20). Heerenveen had 7.6 days of rest, Twente 6.9 and had to travel 106 km.
Away travel106 kmRest days7.6 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 2
Heerenveen35%
Draw26%
Twente39%
Heerenveen34%
Draw27%
Twente38%
Heerenveen35%
Draw26%
Twente39%
Heerenveen28%
Draw26%
Twente46%
Heerenveen34%
Draw27%
Twente38%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Heerenveen)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsDennis Higler
- Cards per match 3.1
- Penalties per match 0.22
- Matches 36
Team strength
Heerenveen
Twente
20
L90 StrengthIn forecast
32
31
Current StrengthIn forecast
45
36
AttackIn forecast
41
40
DefenceIn forecast
49
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisTwente
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
HeerenveenTwente
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.00
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.43
xGVia Att/Def
0.97
0.61
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.20
-0.43
Goals minus xGContext
-0.97
100%
Scored inContext
0%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
17.00
ShotsContext
17.50
5.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
32%
On target shareContext
23%
12.00
Shots in the boxContext
10.50
71%
Box shareContext
59%
6%
ConversionContext
0%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.00
6.50
Shots allowedContext
11.00
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
—
BlocksContext
3.50
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
63%
Save rateContext
67%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
413
PassesContext
441
322
Accurate passesContext
337
78%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.90
Team ratingContext
6.63
11.50
FoulsContext
12.50
9.00
Fouls sufferedContext
13.00
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.38
xGVia Att/Def
1.06
1.10
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.42
-0.18
Goals minus xGContext
-0.06
80%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
13.60
ShotsContext
11.80
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.80
33%
On target shareContext
32%
8.60
Shots in the boxContext
7.90
65%
Box shareContext
67%
9%
ConversionContext
9%
2.11
OffsidesContext
1.88
10.60
Shots allowedContext
11.40
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.40
2.86
BlocksContext
3.11
2.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.25
68%
Save rateContext
56%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
417
PassesContext
395
338
Accurate passesContext
309
81%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.90
Team ratingContext
6.84
12.20
FoulsContext
11.10
10.20
Fouls sufferedContext
13.10
0.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.20
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Heerenveen
Rest7.6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km104 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Twente
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel106 km127 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Heerenveen |
Twente |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.6Eredivisie 2025-2026, 16 Aug | 6.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 17 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 106 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 104 km | 127 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.3 | 6.4 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Heerenveen
Confirmed XI
44A. Noppert(G)
19V. Zagaritis
17N. Hopland
4S. Kersten
45O. Braude
6J. van Overeem
16M. Linday
10R. Meerveld
8L. Brouwers
7M. Rivera
9D. Vente
Twente
Confirmed XI
1L. Unnerstall(G)
39M. Rots
3R. Pröpper
38M. Bruns
28B. van Rooij
20T. van den Belt
6R. Zerrouki
8T. Booth
14K. Hlynsson
11D. Rots
9R. van Wolfswinkel
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Heerenveen
Absences are shown before kick-off
Twente
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Heerenveen+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Twente+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Heerenveen · Home
1.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Twente · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
0 Heerenveen wins1 draws2 Twente wins
Goals per game1.00 – 2.00
Over 2.533%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets0% · 67%
- 9 Feb 2025Heerenveen3–3Twente
- 17 Sep 2024Twente2–0Heerenveen
- 30 Sep 2023Twente1–0Heerenveen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Heerenveen | Twente | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 1.50 | 2.81 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 0% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 0% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 100% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Heerenveen | Twente | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 1.50 | 2.81 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 0% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 0% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 100% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Heerenveen | Twente | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 8.50 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.50 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 10.00 | 10.65 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 2/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 2/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 100% 2/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Heerenveen | Twente | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.10 | 5.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.50 | 4.10 | |
| Match total | 8.60 | 9.90 | 10.65 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 1.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 2.60 | 3.50 | 3.20 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Dennis Higler Netherlands · 36 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.86league 3.24
Red cards0.22league 0.10
Cards 5+25%league 29%
Fouls21.5league 21.5
Penalties0.22league 0.14
Home wins44%league 52%
Heerenveen1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 5.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W22 Sep 24H · Groningen2–11
Twente5 with this referee
Record2-2-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 0.8
Pens for · against1 · 1
- D1 Mar 25A · Groningen1–10
- D2 Feb 25A · GO Ahead Eagles2–23
- W27 Oct 24H · Heracles5–00
- L1 Sep 24A · Utrecht1–22
- W29 Oct 23H · Feyenoord2–15
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Heerenveen2 games · scored 2 · conceded 3
2
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Twente2 games · scored 0 · conceded 3
2
0-15
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
76-90
Heerenveen10 games · scored 12 · conceded 14
5
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
3
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
4
61-75
1
4
76-90
Twente10 games · scored 10 · conceded 15
2
5
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
