Heracles
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Feyenoord were clear favourites.
Feyenoord were the stronger side on L90 Strength (62 vs 14). Heracles had 14.2 days of rest, Feyenoord 14.1 and had to travel 157 km.
Away travel157 kmRest days14.2 · 14.1Matches / 14d0 · 0
Heracles15%
Draw21%
Feyenoord65%
Heracles15%
Draw22%
Feyenoord63%
Heracles15%
Draw21%
Feyenoord64%
Heracles11%
Draw18%
Feyenoord72%
Heracles15%
Draw21%
Feyenoord64%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 0–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Almelo)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsRob Dieperink
- Cards per match 3.4
- Penalties per match 0.22
- Matches 23
Team strength
Heracles
Feyenoord
14
L90 StrengthIn forecast
62
9
Current StrengthIn forecast
59
7
AttackIn forecast
76
10
DefenceIn forecast
61
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFeyenoord
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
HeraclesFeyenoord
0.88
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.25
2.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.75
0.82
xGVia Att/Def
2.02
2.09
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.64
+0.06
Goals minus xGContext
+0.23
63%
Scored inContext
100%
13%
Clean sheetsContext
63%
10.25
ShotsContext
17.38
4.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.38
32%
On target shareContext
37%
5.88
Shots in the boxContext
12.50
60%
Box shareContext
74%
9%
ConversionContext
13%
1.50
OffsidesContext
2.40
20.75
Shots allowedContext
8.38
7.25
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
7.25
BlocksContext
2.86
4.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.17
62%
Save rateContext
72%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
333
PassesContext
429
256
Accurate passesContext
360
77%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.78
Team ratingContext
7.15
12.25
FoulsContext
8.75
10.00
Fouls sufferedContext
10.88
1.75
Yellow cardsContext
1.75
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.13
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
2.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
0.85
xGVia Att/Def
1.70
2.14
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.69
+0.05
Goals minus xGContext
+0.10
70%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
10.50
ShotsContext
15.80
4.38
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.30
33%
On target shareContext
40%
6.44
Shots in the boxContext
11.40
59%
Box shareContext
71%
9%
ConversionContext
11%
1.40
OffsidesContext
2.83
20.70
Shots allowedContext
8.80
7.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.44
7.10
BlocksContext
2.63
4.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.11
62%
Save rateContext
61%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
332
PassesContext
409
258
Accurate passesContext
341
78%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.96
11.50
FoulsContext
10.50
9.60
Fouls sufferedContext
11.20
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Heracles
Rest14.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Feyenoord
Rest14.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel157 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Heracles |
Feyenoord |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14.2Eredivisie 2025-2026, 5 Oct | 14.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 5 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 157 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.1 | 4.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Heracles
Confirmed XI
16T. Jansink(G)
24I. Mesík
18A. Van Hoorenbeeck
4D. Mirani
3J. Wieckhoff
13J. Žambůrek
70A. Hrustić
8M. Engels
10T. Bruns
21Y. Borges Sanches
9J. Hornkamp
Feyenoord
Confirmed XI
22T. Wellenreuther(G)
15J. Bos
5G. Smal
21A. Ahmedhodžić
26G. Read
40L. Valente
28O. Targhalline
14S. Steijn
16L. Sauer
9A. Ueda
23A. Hadj Moussa
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Heracles
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Feyenoord
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Heracles-0.4 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Feyenoord+0.8 pp
Home / Away this season
Heracles · Home
1.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 2.00
Feyenoord · Away
2.50points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-0
- Scored
- 2.50
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 5 this season
| Opponent | Heracles | Feyenoord |
|---|---|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam | W 3–0 H | W 4–0 A |
| NAC Breda | L 1–2 A | W 2–0 H |
| AZ Alkmaar | L 1–2 H | D 3–3 A |
| Groningen | L 0–4 A | W 1–0 A |
| Utrecht | L 0–4 A | W 3–2 H |
| Points | 3 of 15 · 0.60 per game | 13 of 15 · 2.60 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
0 Heracles wins0 draws3 Feyenoord wins
Goals per game1.00 – 4.33
Over 2.5100%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets0% · 33%
- 3 May 2025Heracles1–4Feyenoord
- 14 Dec 2024Feyenoord5–2Heracles
- 17 Dec 2023Heracles0–4Feyenoord
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Heracles | Feyenoord | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.88 | 2.25 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.50 | 0.75 | |
| Match goals | 3.38 | 3.00 | 3.01 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 88% | 50% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 38% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 38% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 13% | 63% | |
| Failed to score | 38% | 0% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Heracles | Feyenoord | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.88 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.50 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 3.38 | 2.70 | 3.01 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 88% | 40% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 13% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 38% | 20% | |
| Games | 8 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Heracles | Feyenoord | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.63 | 7.29 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.75 | 3.29 | |
| Match total | 10.38 | 10.58 | 9.92 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 6/8 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.88 | 1.88 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 3.88 | 3.38 | 3.77 |
| Over 3.5 | 38% 3/8 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 38% 3/8 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Heracles | Feyenoord | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.90 | 7.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.90 | 3.56 | |
| Match total | 10.80 | 10.78 | 9.92 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.20 | 3.90 | 3.77 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Rob Dieperink Netherlands · 23 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.17league 3.53
Red cards0.22league 0.21
Cards 5+30%league 36%
Fouls21.4league 22.6
Penalties0.22league 0.25
Home wins35%league 49%
Heracles2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.5
Pens for · against1 · 1
- L29 Aug 25A · Groningen0–41
- W12 Jan 24A · Waalwijk2–11
Feyenoord2 with this referee
Record0-2-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 5.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- D1 Mar 25H · NEC Nijmegen0–01
- D13 Aug 23H · Fortuna Sittard0–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Heracles8 games · scored 7 · conceded 20
2
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
4
31-45
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
8
76-90
Feyenoord8 games · scored 18 · conceded 6
1
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
4
31-45
5
2
46-60
2
61-75
3
2
76-90
Heracles10 games · scored 9 · conceded 26
2
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
6
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
4
61-75
8
76-90
Feyenoord10 games · scored 18 · conceded 14
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
5
2
31-45
4
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
4
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
