Heracles vs Telstar – 6 Dec 2025

Eredivisie Knockout phase Sat, Dec 6 · 19:00 Erve Asito, Almelo

Heracles 16th · 13 pts · 14 played LWWWD

1–1Full time

Telstar 18th · 10 pts · 14 played LDDDL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on Heracles. Heracles had 7.1 days of rest, Telstar 6.2 and had to travel 137 km.

Away travel137 kmRest days7.1 · 6.2Matches / 14d2 · 2

Heracles38%

Draw27%

Telstar35%

Expected goals 1.38 – 1.31

Heracles39%

Draw27%

Telstar34%

Expected goals 1.39 – 1.28

Heracles39%

Draw27%

Telstar34%

Expected goals 1.41 – 1.29

Heracles31%

Draw27%

Telstar42%

Expected goals 1.23 – 1.47

Heracles38%

Draw27%

Telstar35%

Expected goals 1.37 – 1.30

Over 2.5 50% Both score 55% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Almelo)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsDanny Makkelie

Cards per match 3.5
Penalties per match 0.29
Matches 96

Team strength

Heracles

Telstar

17 L90 StrengthIn forecast 22

9 Current StrengthIn forecast 22

7 AttackIn forecast 24

10 DefenceIn forecast 13

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Heracles

Attack—

Defense risk—

Telstar

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Heracles

Telstar

1.57 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.14

2.57 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.71

1.09 xGVia Att/Def 1.40

1.88 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.85

+0.48 Goals minus xGContext -0.26

64% Scored inContext 64%

7% Clean sheetsContext 14%

11.07 ShotsContext 13.43

5.27 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00

37% On target shareContext 35%

7.23 Shots in the boxContext 8.64

60% Box shareContext 63%

14% ConversionContext 9%

1.44 OffsidesContext 2.25

17.36 Shots allowedContext 16.00

6.71 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.86

5.57 BlocksContext 4.79

4.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.21

60% Save rateContext 72%

44% PossessionIn forecast 44%

338 PassesContext 362

261 Accurate passesContext 284

77% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.78 Team ratingContext 6.87

12.21 FoulsContext 11.07

11.57 Fouls sufferedContext 10.71

1.79 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.07 Red cardsContext 0.07

This league season, per match · 14 and 14 games

2.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

2.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.80

1.27 xGVia Att/Def 1.47

1.69 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.00

+0.83 Goals minus xGContext -0.27

80% Scored inContext 70%

10% Clean sheetsContext 10%

12.10 ShotsContext 13.20

5.44 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.67

41% On target shareContext 32%

8.33 Shots in the boxContext 8.30

62% Box shareContext 61%

17% ConversionContext 9%

1.57 OffsidesContext 2.11

15.60 Shots allowedContext 16.60

6.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.10

4.40 BlocksContext 4.80

3.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.40

64% Save rateContext 72%

46% PossessionIn forecast 45%

354 PassesContext 363

277 Accurate passesContext 282

78% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.85 Team ratingContext 6.85

11.90 FoulsContext 10.90

11.80 Fouls sufferedContext 11.00

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.40

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Heracles

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km321 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Telstar

Rest6.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel137 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Heracles	Telstar
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 29 Nov	6.2Eredivisie 2025-2026, 30 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	137 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	321 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 2 / 2	1 / 2 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	7	6.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Heracles Confirmed XI

4-4-2

16T. Jansink(G)

24I. Mesík 18A. Van Hoorenbeeck 4D. Mirani 23M. te Wierik

73W. Ould-Chikh 13J. Žambůrek 70A. Hrustić 7B. Limbombe

9J. Hornkamp 17T. van Gilst

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Telstar Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1R. Koeman(G)

6D. Bakker 21D. Koswal 14Nigel Ogidi Nwankwo

2J. Hardeveld 8T. Owusu 4G. Offerhaus 39J. Ritmeester van de Kamp

27P. Brouwer 17N. Rossen

7S. Hetli

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Heracles Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Telstar Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Heracles-1.1 pp
Draw+0.1 pp
Telstar+1.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Heracles · Home 1.50points per game · 6 home games

W-D-L: 3-0-3
Scored: 2.83
Conceded: 2.83

Telstar · Away 0.67points per game · 6 away games

W-D-L: 1-1-4
Scored: 0.50
Conceded: 1.17

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 12 this season

Opponent	Heracles	Telstar
Fortuna Sittard	D 1–1 A	L 1–3 H
GO Ahead Eagles	W 4–2 H	W 4–2 H
Excelsior	W 2–1 A	D 2–2 H
PEC Zwolle	W 8–2 H	L 0–2 H
FC Volendam	L 0–3 A	D 2–2 H
Feyenoord	L 0–7 H	L 1–2 H
Twente	L 1–2 A	D 0–0 A
Sparta Rotterdam	W 3–0 H	L 0–1 A
AZ Alkmaar	L 1–2 H	L 1–2 A
Groningen	L 0–4 A	L 0–2 A
Ajax	L 0–2 A	L 0–2 A
Utrecht	L 0–4 A	D 1–1 H
Points	13 of 36 · 1.08 per game	7 of 36 · 0.58 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Heracles	Telstar	Forecast
Scored per game	1.57	1.14
Conceded per game	2.57	1.71
Match goals	4.14	2.86	2.69
Over 1.5	100%	86%
Over 2.5	86%	50%	50%
Over 3.5	43%	36%
Both teams scored	57%	57%	55%
Clean sheets	7%	14%
Failed to score	36%	36%
Games	14	14

	Heracles	Telstar	Forecast
Scored per game	2.10	1.20
Conceded per game	2.20	1.80
Match goals	4.30	3.00	2.69
Over 1.5	100%	80%
Over 2.5	90%	60%	50%
Over 3.5	30%	40%
Both teams scored	70%	70%	55%
Clean sheets	10%	10%
Failed to score	20%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Heracles	Telstar	League
Corners
Corners won	4.43	4.77
Corners conceded	6.43	6.54
Match total	10.86	11.31	9.87
Over 8.5	79% 11/14	77% 10/13
Over 9.5	57% 8/14	62% 8/13
Over 10.5	36% 5/14	54% 7/13
Cards
Cards	1.93	1.57
Opponent cards	2.00	1.71
Match total	3.93	3.28	3.59
Over 3.5	36% 5/14	36% 5/14
Over 4.5	29% 4/14	29% 4/14

	Heracles	Telstar	League
Corners
Corners won	5.10	4.50
Corners conceded	6.30	6.10
Match total	11.40	10.60	9.87
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	1.90	1.50
Opponent cards	2.30	2.00
Match total	4.20	3.50	3.59
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Danny Makkelie Netherlands · 96 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.33league 3.35

Red cards0.13league 0.23

Cards 5+26%league 33%

Fouls21.6league 22.0

Penalties0.29league 0.28

Home wins43%league 48%

Heracles4 with this referee

Record1-1-2 Cards · opp.1.8 · 0.3 Pens for · against0 · 1 Reds1

L25 Oct 25A · FC Volendam0–33
W8 Feb 25H · GO Ahead Eagles4–20
L14 Dec 24A · Feyenoord2–51
D28 Sep 23A · AZ Alkmaar1–13

Telstar

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.