Inter
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Inter were clear favourites.
Inter were the stronger side on L90 Strength (85 vs 52). Inter had 6.1 days of rest, Como 7.9 and had to travel 39 km.
Away travel39 kmRest days6.1 · 7.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
Inter67%
Draw20%
Como13%
Inter68%
Draw20%
Como12%
Inter67%
Draw20%
Como13%
Inter60%
Draw23%
Como17%
Inter68%
Draw20%
Como12%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Milano)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyMarco Di Bello
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.42
- Matches 66
Team strength
Inter
Como
85
L90 StrengthIn forecast
52
83
Current StrengthIn forecast
65
91
AttackIn forecast
72
73
DefenceIn forecast
67
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisComo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
InterComo
2.15
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.46
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.54
1.87
xGVia Att/Def
1.33
0.87
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.91
+0.28
Goals minus xGContext
+0.13
92%
Scored inContext
69%
46%
Clean sheetsContext
46%
17.62
ShotsContext
13.62
5.31
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.23
30%
On target shareContext
38%
12.08
Shots in the boxContext
8.15
70%
Box shareContext
59%
12%
ConversionContext
11%
2.09
OffsidesContext
1.50
8.92
Shots allowedContext
10.38
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.62
3.30
BlocksContext
3.36
2.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.08
83%
Save rateContext
80%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
61%
534
PassesContext
505
466
Accurate passesContext
438
87%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
7.06
Team ratingContext
6.96
13.69
FoulsContext
14.69
11.38
Fouls sufferedContext
12.62
1.38
Yellow cardsContext
2.23
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.15
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.50
1.97
xGVia Att/Def
1.36
0.89
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.84
-0.17
Goals minus xGContext
+0.24
90%
Scored inContext
70%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
17.20
ShotsContext
13.30
5.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.70
31%
On target shareContext
43%
12.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
70%
Box shareContext
59%
11%
ConversionContext
12%
1.57
OffsidesContext
1.50
10.10
Shots allowedContext
10.40
3.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.80
3.25
BlocksContext
2.88
3.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.56
85%
Save rateContext
87%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
61%
551
PassesContext
514
480
Accurate passesContext
446
87%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
7.10
Team ratingContext
6.97
12.20
FoulsContext
14.60
13.70
Fouls sufferedContext
12.40
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Inter
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km435 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Como
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel39 km273 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Inter |
Como |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1Serie A 2025-2026, 30 Nov | 7.9Serie A 2025-2026, 28 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 39 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 435 km | 273 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 9.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Inter
Confirmed XI
1Y. Sommer(G)
95A. Bastoni
15F. Acerbi
25M. Akanji
32F. Dimarco
7P. Zieliński
20H. Çalhanoğlu
23N. Barella
11L. de Lima
10L. Martínez
9M. Thuram
Como
Confirmed XI
1J. Butez(G)
3Álex Valle
34Diego Carlos
14Jacobo Ramón
27S. Posch
33L. da Cunha
23M. Perrone
17Jesús Rodríguez
10N. Paz
42J. Addai
7Álvaro Morata
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Inter
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Como
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Inter+0.1 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Como+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Inter · Home
2.14points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-0-2
- Scored
- 2.43
- Conceded
- 0.71
Como · Away
1.50points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-1
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 0.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 9 this season
| Opponent | Inter | Como |
|---|---|---|
| Lazio | W 2–0 H | W 2–0 H |
| Verona | W 2–1 A | W 3–1 H |
| Fiorentina | W 3–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| Napoli | L 1–3 A | D 0–0 A |
| Cremonese | W 4–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Cagliari | W 2–0 A | D 0–0 H |
| Sassuolo | W 2–1 H | W 2–0 H |
| Juventus | L 3–4 A | W 2–0 H |
| Torino | W 5–0 H | W 5–1 A |
| Points | 21 of 27 · 2.33 per game | 21 of 27 · 2.33 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
2 Inter wins0 draws0 Como wins
Goals per game2.00 – 0.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets100% · 0%
- 23 May 2025Como0–2Inter
- 23 Dec 2024Inter2–0Como
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Inter | Como | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.15 | 1.46 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.54 | |
| Match goals | 3.15 | 2.00 | 2.93 |
| Over 1.5 | 85% | 69% | |
| Over 2.5 | 62% | 23% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 31% | 15% | |
| Both teams scored | 46% | 46% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 46% | 46% | |
| Failed to score | 8% | 31% | |
| Games | 13 | 13 |
| Inter | Como | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.90 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.70 | 0.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 2.10 | 2.93 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 30% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Inter | Como | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.00 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.08 | 3.30 | |
| Match total | 10.08 | 6.80 | 8.82 |
| Over 8.5 | 77% 10/13 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 62% 8/13 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 46% 6/13 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.38 | 2.38 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.69 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.07 | 4.38 | 4.05 |
| Over 3.5 | 23% 3/13 | 69% 9/13 | |
| Over 4.5 | 15% 2/13 | 46% 6/13 | |
| Inter | Como | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.80 | 3.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.20 | 2.89 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 6.33 | 8.82 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 0% 0/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 0% 0/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 3.20 | 3.70 | 4.05 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 2/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Marco Di Bello Italy · 66 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.15league 3.92
Red cards0.20league 0.14
Cards 5+50%league 39%
Fouls26.2league 26.0
Penalties0.42league 0.32
Home wins33%league 38%
Inter4 with this referee
Record4-0-0
Cards · opp.0.5 · 1.8
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W12 Apr 25H · Cagliari3–10
- W9 Dec 23H · Udinese4–00
- W22 May 22H · Sampdoria3–01
- W4 Dec 21A · AS Roma3–01
Como4 with this referee
Record1-2-1
Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- D27 Sep 25H · Cremonese1–14
- W3 May 25A · Parma1–01
- L4 Nov 24A · Empoli0–10
- D26 Aug 24A · Cagliari1–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Inter13 games · scored 28 · conceded 13
5
1
0-15
4
1
16-30
2
4
31-45
4
2
46-60
7
1
61-75
6
4
76-90
Como12 games · scored 17 · conceded 6
4
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
4
1
76-90
Inter10 games · scored 18 · conceded 8
2
1
0-15
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
3
3
46-60
5
1
61-75
4
1
76-90
Como9 games · scored 14 · conceded 4
3
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
