Inter
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Inter were clear favourites.
Inter were the stronger side on L90 Strength (84 vs 67). Inter had 5.9 days of rest, Napoli 6 and had to travel 658 km. Weather to note: heat stress.
Away travel658 kmRest days5.9 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 2
Inter61%
Draw21%
Napoli18%
Inter58%
Draw22%
Napoli19%
Inter60%
Draw21%
Napoli19%
Inter53%
Draw23%
Napoli24%
Inter59%
Draw22%
Napoli19%
Over 2.5 59%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Milano)
Heat stress
33°CMainly clear
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 11 km/h
- Humidity 36%
Referee · ItalySimone Sozza
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.47
- Matches 98
Team strength
Inter
Napoli
84
L90 StrengthIn forecast
67
83
Current StrengthIn forecast
61
91
AttackIn forecast
61
73
DefenceIn forecast
70
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNapoli
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
InterNapoli
2.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
0.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
2.43
xGVia Att/Def
1.07
0.84
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.85
+0.07
Goals minus xGContext
+0.43
100%
Scored inContext
100%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
21.50
ShotsContext
13.00
6.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
28%
On target shareContext
23%
17.00
Shots in the boxContext
6.50
78%
Box shareContext
50%
12%
ConversionContext
12%
—
OffsidesContext
5.00
8.50
Shots allowedContext
16.00
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
1.50
BlocksContext
5.00
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
67%
Save rateContext
75%
68%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
694
PassesContext
474
623
Accurate passesContext
419
90%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
7.23
Team ratingContext
6.89
5.00
FoulsContext
8.00
10.00
Fouls sufferedContext
7.50
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.81
xGVia Att/Def
1.12
1.14
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.86
+0.99
Goals minus xGContext
+0.38
100%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
60%
15.20
ShotsContext
13.60
5.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.56
37%
On target shareContext
30%
11.70
Shots in the boxContext
8.60
77%
Box shareContext
63%
18%
ConversionContext
11%
1.50
OffsidesContext
3.20
10.90
Shots allowedContext
10.10
3.75
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.60
3.00
BlocksContext
2.88
2.38
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.70
63%
Save rateContext
75%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
557
PassesContext
566
497
Accurate passesContext
511
89%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
7.03
Team ratingContext
6.94
10.20
FoulsContext
7.70
9.70
Fouls sufferedContext
9.20
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
0.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Inter
WW
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,386 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 69 · 6 pts vs 3.7 for an average club · +1.4 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Inter |
Napoli |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.9Serie A 2026-2027, 30 Aug | 6Serie A 2026-2027, 30 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 658 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,386 km | 1,176 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.1 | 4.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Inter
Confirmed XI
1Josep Martínez(G)
95A. Bastoni
25M. Akanji
31Y. Bisseck
32F. Dimarco
8P. Sučić
7P. Zieliński
23N. Barella
17A. Diouf
10L. Martínez
94F. Esposito
Napoli
Confirmed XI
1A. Meret(G)
37L. Spinazzola
16Rafa Marín
13A. Rrahmani
22G. Di Lorenzo
26A. Vergara
68S. Lobotka
99F. Anguissa
27Alisson Santos
19R. Højlund
21M. Politano
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Inter
Absences are shown before kick-off
Napoli
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Inter+0.7 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Napoli-0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Inter · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 4.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Napoli · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
3 Inter wins5 draws2 Napoli wins
Goals per game1.50 – 1.40
Over 2.550%
Both scored80%
Clean sheets20% · 0%
- 11 Jan 2026Inter2–2Napoli
- 25 Oct 2025Napoli3–1Inter
- 1 Mar 2025Napoli1–1Inter
- 10 Nov 2024Inter1–1Napoli
- 17 Mar 2024Inter1–1Napoli
- 3 Dec 2023Napoli0–3Inter
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Inter | Napoli | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.50 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.50 | 3.04 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Inter | Napoli | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.80 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 2.30 | 3.04 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 40% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 60% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Inter | Napoli | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.50 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 9.50 | 8.32 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 1/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 2.00 | 3.05 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Inter | Napoli | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.90 | 4.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.90 | 3.11 | |
| Match total | 8.80 | 7.67 | 8.32 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 0.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.20 | 2.70 | 3.05 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Simone Sozza Italy · 98 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.16league 3.05
Red cards0.16league 0.00
Cards 5+42%league 14%
Fouls24.9league 22.6
Penalties0.47league 0.00
Home wins39%league 36%
Inter8 with this referee
Record7-0-1
Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.3
Pens for · against4 · 0
- W5 Apr 26H · AS Roma5–20
- L23 Nov 25H · AC Milan0–11
- W29 Oct 25H · Fiorentina3–01
- W4 Nov 23A · Atalanta2–11
- W16 Sep 23H · AC Milan5–12
Napoli8 with this referee
Record3-3-2
Cards · opp.1.4 · 1.9
Pens for · against1 · 2
- L14 Dec 25A · Udinese0–10
- W30 Mar 25H · AC Milan2–11
- D28 Apr 24H · AS Roma2–22
- L4 Jan 23A · Inter0–12
- W3 Sep 22A · Lazio2–10
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Inter2 games · scored 5 · conceded 1
2
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
2
46-60
1
61-75
76-90
Napoli2 games · scored 3 · conceded 2
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
61-75
2
76-90
Inter10 games · scored 28 · conceded 12
4
0-15
2
2
16-30
4
4
31-45
9
1
46-60
5
2
61-75
4
3
76-90
Napoli10 games · scored 15 · conceded 8
1
3
0-15
4
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
3
1
46-60
61-75
4
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
