Inter
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Inter were clear favourites.
Inter were the stronger side on L90 Strength (83 vs 34). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Parma. Inter had 7.1 days of rest, Parma 8.2 and had to travel 116 km.
Away travel116 kmRest days7.1 · 8.2Matches / 14d1 · 1
Inter68%
Draw20%
Parma11%
Inter76%
Draw16%
Parma8%
Inter69%
Draw20%
Parma11%
Inter61%
Draw23%
Parma15%
Inter69%
Draw19%
Parma12%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 45%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Milano)
No weather data yet
RefereeKevin Bonacina
- Cards per match 3.4
- Penalties per match 0.23
- Matches 13
Team strength
Inter
Parma
83
L90 StrengthIn forecast
34
83
Current StrengthIn forecast
28
91
AttackIn forecast
20
73
DefenceIn forecast
33
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisParma
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
InterParma
2.35
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.74
0.91
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.18
1.78
xGVia Att/Def
0.84
0.89
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.30
+0.57
Goals minus xGContext
-0.10
94%
Scored inContext
59%
47%
Clean sheetsContext
35%
17.15
ShotsContext
10.53
5.91
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.06
35%
On target shareContext
27%
12.15
Shots in the boxContext
6.16
71%
Box shareContext
55%
14%
ConversionContext
7%
1.94
OffsidesContext
1.65
8.97
Shots allowedContext
13.53
3.27
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.09
3.04
BlocksContext
3.94
2.43
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
75%
Save rateContext
70%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
533
PassesContext
359
467
Accurate passesContext
290
88%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
7.04
Team ratingContext
6.77
13.18
FoulsContext
10.56
10.82
Fouls sufferedContext
13.41
1.71
Yellow cardsContext
1.59
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.03
2.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.53
xGVia Att/Def
0.77
1.27
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.99
+0.57
Goals minus xGContext
+0.13
90%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
16.00
ShotsContext
10.30
5.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.44
33%
On target shareContext
30%
12.40
Shots in the boxContext
5.30
76%
Box shareContext
50%
13%
ConversionContext
9%
1.80
OffsidesContext
1.67
10.40
Shots allowedContext
11.60
3.56
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.60
3.57
BlocksContext
3.10
2.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.78
69%
Save rateContext
71%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
541
PassesContext
390
475
Accurate passesContext
327
88%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.96
Team ratingContext
6.81
11.70
FoulsContext
10.50
8.90
Fouls sufferedContext
12.60
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Inter
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km251 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Parma
Rest8.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel116 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Inter |
Parma |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Serie A 2025-2026, 26 Apr | 8.2Serie A 2025-2026, 25 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 116 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 251 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 4 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.9 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Inter
Confirmed XI
1Y. Sommer(G)
95A. Bastoni
25M. Akanji
31Y. Bisseck
32F. Dimarco
8P. Sučić
7P. Zieliński
23N. Barella
2D. Dumfries
94F. Esposito
9M. Thuram
Parma
Confirmed XI
31Z. Suzuki(G)
3A. Ndiaye
37Mariano Troilo
39A. Circati
14E. Valeri
16L. Keita
41H. Nicolussi
10Adrián Bernabé
15E. Delprato
9Mateo Pellegrino
7Gabriel Strefezza
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Inter
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Parma
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Inter-0.8 pp
- Draw+0.4 pp
- Parma+0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Inter · Home
2.41points per game · 17 home games
- W-D-L
- 13-2-2
- Scored
- 2.76
- Conceded
- 0.88
Parma · Away
1.41points per game · 17 away games
- W-D-L
- 6-6-5
- Scored
- 0.71
- Conceded
- 1.06
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Inter | Parma |
|---|---|---|
| Torino | D 2–2 AW 5–0 H | L 1–4 AW 2–1 H |
| Cagliari | W 3–0 HW 2–0 A | D 1–1 HL 0–2 A |
| Como | W 4–3 AW 4–0 H | D 0–0 H |
| AS Roma | W 5–2 HW 1–0 A | L 1–2 A |
| Fiorentina | D 1–1 AW 3–0 H | D 0–0 AW 1–0 H |
| Atalanta | D 1–1 HW 1–0 A | L 0–4 AD 1–1 H |
| AC Milan | L 0–1 AL 0–1 H | W 1–0 AD 2–2 H |
| Genoa | W 2–0 HW 2–1 A | D 0–0 HD 0–0 A |
| Lecce | W 2–0 AW 1–0 H | W 2–1 AL 0–1 H |
| Juventus | W 3–2 HL 3–4 A | L 1–4 HL 0–2 A |
| Sassuolo | W 5–0 AW 2–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Cremonese | W 2–0 AW 4–1 H | L 0–2 HD 0–0 A |
| Pisa | W 6–2 HW 2–0 A | W 1–0 HW 1–0 A |
| Udinese | W 1–0 AL 1–2 H | W 1–0 AL 0–2 H |
| Napoli | D 2–2 HL 1–3 A | D 1–1 HD 0–0 A |
| Bologna | W 3–1 H | W 1–0 AL 1–3 H |
| Lazio | W 2–0 H | D 1–1 AL 0–1 H |
| Verona | W 2–1 A | W 2–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Points | 76 of 99 · 2.30 per game | 42 of 99 · 1.27 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
2 Inter wins1 draws0 Parma wins
Goals per game2.33 – 1.00
Over 2.567%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets33% · 0%
- 7 Jan 2026Parma0–2Inter
- 5 Apr 2025Parma2–2Inter
- 6 Dec 2024Inter3–1Parma
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Inter | Parma | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.35 | 0.74 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.91 | 1.18 | |
| Match goals | 3.26 | 1.91 | 2.77 |
| Over 1.5 | 82% | 59% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 29% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 15% | |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 41% | 45% |
| Clean sheets | 47% | 35% | |
| Failed to score | 6% | 41% | |
| Games | 34 | 34 |
| Inter | Parma | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.30 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 1.90 | 2.77 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 20% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 45% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Inter | Parma | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.12 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.79 | 4.57 | |
| Match total | 8.91 | 8.57 | 8.68 |
| Over 8.5 | 59% 20/34 | 47% 14/30 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 17/34 | 33% 10/30 | |
| Over 10.5 | 41% 14/34 | 30% 9/30 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.71 | 1.71 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.76 | 2.09 | |
| Match total | 3.47 | 3.80 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 32% 11/34 | 59% 20/34 | |
| Over 4.5 | 21% 7/34 | 35% 12/34 | |
| Inter | Parma | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.20 | 4.25 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.80 | 4.63 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 8.88 | 8.68 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 3.40 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Kevin Bonacina 13 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.15league 3.71
Red cards0.23league 0.18
Cards 5+23%league 35%
Fouls25.0league 24.8
Penalties0.23league 0.29
Home wins38%league 39%
InterNo previous matches with this referee.
Parma1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- L2 Nov 25H · Bologna1–33
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Inter34 games · scored 80 · conceded 31
11
2
0-15
10
4
16-30
12
8
31-45
14
2
46-60
15
4
61-75
18
11
76-90
Parma34 games · scored 25 · conceded 40
4
7
0-15
3
3
16-30
3
5
31-45
3
7
46-60
4
8
61-75
8
10
76-90
Inter10 games · scored 21 · conceded 12
2
0-15
2
16-30
3
4
31-45
6
1
46-60
5
3
61-75
3
4
76-90
Parma10 games · scored 9 · conceded 10
3
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
4
46-60
2
61-75
4
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
