Inter
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Inter were clear favourites.
Inter were the stronger side on L90 Strength (84 vs 31). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Inter. Inter were without H. Çalhanoğlu. Parma were without Adrián Bernabé and L. Valenti. Inter had 21 days of rest, Parma 20.1 and had to travel 116 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel116 kmRest days21 · 20.1Matches / 14d0 · 0
Inter85%
Draw10%
Parma5%
Inter79%
Draw14%
Parma7%
Inter85%
Draw10%
Parma5%
Inter80%
Draw13%
Parma7%
Inter84%
Draw10%
Parma5%
Over 2.5 75%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 3–0
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Milano)
20°CMainly clear
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 9 km/h
- Humidity 74%
RefereeKevin Bonacina
- Cards per match 3.0
- Penalties per match 0.19
- Matches 16
Team strength
Inter
Parma
84
L90 StrengthIn forecast
31
83
Current StrengthIn forecast
28
91
AttackIn forecast
20
73
DefenceIn forecast
33
82
Form indexContext
20
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisParma
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
InterParma
3.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
2.58
xGVia Att/Def
0.56
1.04
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.66
+0.42
Goals minus xGContext
+0.24
100%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
23.00
ShotsContext
8.00
7.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.80
32%
On target shareContext
35%
16.40
Shots in the boxContext
4.75
72%
Box shareContext
59%
13%
ConversionContext
10%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.75
11.40
Shots allowedContext
18.20
4.75
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.60
3.20
BlocksContext
4.80
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.20
63%
Save rateContext
75%
63%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
600
PassesContext
375
539
Accurate passesContext
306
90%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
7.18
Team ratingContext
6.69
6.60
FoulsContext
10.60
9.60
Fouls sufferedContext
15.80
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
2.25
xGVia Att/Def
0.70
0.92
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.73
+0.25
Goals minus xGContext
+0.10
100%
Scored inContext
60%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
19.00
ShotsContext
8.80
6.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
34%
On target shareContext
31%
14.00
Shots in the boxContext
5.75
75%
Box shareContext
60%
13%
ConversionContext
9%
2.17
OffsidesContext
2.25
10.90
Shots allowedContext
15.80
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
2.60
BlocksContext
4.30
3.38
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.80
68%
Save rateContext
76%
62%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
593
PassesContext
358
536
Accurate passesContext
295
91%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
7.07
Team ratingContext
6.76
8.30
FoulsContext
10.30
10.20
Fouls sufferedContext
13.70
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Inter
WWLWD
Rest21 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 82 · 10 pts vs 5.7 for an average club · +1.7 vs expected
Parma
LLDLW
Rest20.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel116 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 20 · 4 pts vs 7.8 for an average club · -1.9 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Inter |
Parma |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 21Serie A 2026-2027, 19 Sep | 20.1Serie A 2026-2027, 20 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 116 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.1 | 9.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Inter
Confirmed XI
1Josep Martínez(G)
30Carlos Augusto
31Y. Bisseck
28B. Pavard
32F. Dimarco
22H. Mkhitaryan
20H. Çalhanoğlu
8P. Sučić
17A. Diouf
94F. Esposito
9M. Thuram
Parma
Confirmed XI
40E. Corvi(G)
29F. Carboni
34Diego Carlos
37Mariano Troilo
14E. Valeri
4V. Sierro
16L. Keita
15E. Delprato
19E. Touré
80G. Fabbian
23N. Elphege
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Inter
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.02 goals
Attack line −13.3% · Defence line −10.7% of weighted minutes
- MID H. Çalhanoğlu Core 7.43 Att −9.2% Def −5.7%
- MID C. Jones Rotation 6.72 Att −4.1% Def −2.5%
- DEF J. Stones Rotation 6.75 Def −2.5%
Parma
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.10 goals
Attack line −11.7% · Defence line −16.7% of weighted minutes
- MID Adrián Bernabé Starter 6.98 Att −6.9% Def −4.6%
- DEF L. Valenti Starter 6.85 Def −9.1%
- MID H. Nicolussi Rotation 6.67 Att −2.5% Def −1.6%
- ATT M. Frigan Rotation 6.50 Att −1.9%
- DEF A. Ndiaye Rotation 6.38 Def −1.1%
- ATT P. Almqvist Depth 6.59 Att −0.4%
Total impact vs full squads
- Inter+0.4 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Parma-0.1 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Inter · Home
3.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-0
- Scored
- 4.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Parma · Away
0.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Inter | Parma |
|---|---|---|
| Cagliari | W 1–0 A | L 0–1 H |
| Monza | W 4–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Points | 6 of 6 · 3.00 per game | 1 of 6 · 0.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
3 Inter wins1 draws0 Parma wins
Goals per game2.25 – 0.75
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 3 May 2026Inter2–0Parma
- 7 Jan 2026Parma0–2Inter
- 5 Apr 2025Parma2–2Inter
- 6 Dec 2024Inter3–1Parma
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Inter | Parma | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.00 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 4.60 | 2.20 | 3.93 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 40% | 75% |
| Over 3.5 | 80% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 40% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Inter | Parma | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.50 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 3.90 | 2.10 | 3.93 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 30% | 75% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Inter | Parma | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.20 | 3.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.20 | 6.20 | |
| Match total | 10.40 | 9.40 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 3/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 3/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 3/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 3.60 | 3.42 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 2/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 1/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Inter | Parma | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.50 | 3.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.60 | 6.50 | |
| Match total | 10.10 | 9.70 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 3.10 | 3.20 | 3.42 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Kevin Bonacina 16 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.81league 3.35
Red cards0.19league 0.02
Cards 5+19%league 25%
Fouls24.5league 22.1
Penalties0.19league 0.10
Home wins44%league 45%
Inter2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.1.5 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D23 May 26A · Bologna3–32
- W3 May 26H · Parma2–01
Parma2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- L3 May 26A · Inter0–20
- L2 Nov 25H · Bologna1–33
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Inter5 games · scored 15 · conceded 8
2
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
5
2
46-60
2
61-75
4
1
76-90
Parma5 games · scored 4 · conceded 7
0-15
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
46-60
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
Inter10 games · scored 25 · conceded 14
3
3
0-15
2
4
16-30
3
2
31-45
6
3
46-60
3
61-75
8
2
76-90
Parma10 games · scored 8 · conceded 13
0-15
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
61-75
5
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
