Inter vs Udinese – 31 Aug 2025

Serie A Gameweek 2 Sun, Aug 31 · 19:45 Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milano

Inter 5th · 3 pts · 1 played W

1–2Full time

Udinese 11th · 1 pts · 1 played D

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Inter were clear favourites.

Inter were the stronger side on L90 Strength (86 vs 28). Inter had 6 days of rest, Udinese 6.1 and had to travel 321 km.

Away travel321 kmRest days6 · 6.1Matches / 14d1 · 1

Inter80%

Draw14%

Udinese6%

Expected goals 2.61 – 0.60

Inter81%

Draw13%

Udinese6%

Expected goals 2.78 – 0.64

Inter80%

Draw14%

Udinese6%

Expected goals 2.61 – 0.60

Inter74%

Draw17%

Udinese9%

Expected goals 2.33 – 0.67

Inter81%

Draw13%

Udinese6%

Expected goals 2.78 – 0.64

Over 2.5 62% Both score 42% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Milano)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyMatteo Marchetti

Cards per match 4.1
Penalties per match 0.23
Matches 43

Team strength

Inter

Udinese

86 L90 StrengthIn forecast 28

83 Current StrengthIn forecast 32

91 AttackIn forecast 22

73 DefenceIn forecast 18

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Inter

Attack—

Defense risk—

Udinese

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Inter

Udinese

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.70

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.80

1.33 xGVia Att/Def 0.96

1.57 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.45

+0.57 Goals minus xGContext -0.26

70% Scored inContext 50%

40% Clean sheetsContext 10%

11.50 ShotsContext 11.60

4.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.70

37% On target shareContext 32%

8.30 Shots in the boxContext 7.33

73% Box shareContext 60%

17% ConversionContext 6%

3.50 OffsidesContext 1.57

15.70 Shots allowedContext 13.40

5.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.70

4.40 BlocksContext 4.00

3.70 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50

71% Save rateContext 67%

53% PossessionIn forecast 48%

492 PassesContext 381

425 Accurate passesContext 315

86% Pass accuracyContext 83%

7.05 Team ratingContext 6.83

11.10 FoulsContext 14.40

10.10 Fouls sufferedContext 9.60

2.20 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Inter

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Udinese

Rest6.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel321 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Inter	Udinese
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6Serie A 2025-2026, 25 Aug	6.1Serie A 2025-2026, 25 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	321 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 1	1 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	12.9	13.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Inter Confirmed XI

3-5-2

1Y. Sommer(G)

95A. Bastoni 15F. Acerbi 31Y. Bisseck

32F. Dimarco 8P. Sučić 20H. Çalhanoğlu 23N. Barella 2D. Dumfries

10L. Martínez 9M. Thuram

Udinese Confirmed XI

3-5-2

90R. Sava(G)

28O. Solet 31T. Kristensen 13N. Bertola

33J. Zemura 14A. Atta 8J. Karlström 24J. Piotrowski 19K. Ehizibue

9K. Davis 15V. Bayo

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Inter Absences are shown before kick-off

Udinese Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Inter+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Udinese+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Inter · Home 3.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-0
Scored: 5.00
Conceded: 0.00

Udinese · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

7 Inter wins0 draws1 Udinese wins

Goals per game2.38 – 1.13 Over 2.588% Both scored75% Clean sheets25% · 0%

30 Mar 2025Inter2–1Udinese
28 Sep 2024Udinese2–3Inter
8 Apr 2024Udinese1–2Inter
9 Dec 2023Inter4–0Udinese
18 Feb 2023Inter3–1Udinese
18 Sep 2022Udinese3–1Inter

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Inter	Udinese	Forecast
Scored per game	5.00	1.00
Conceded per game	0.00	1.00
Match goals	5.00	2.00	3.21
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	0%	62%
Over 3.5	100%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	100%	42%
Clean sheets	100%	0%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	1	1

	Inter	Udinese	Forecast
Scored per game	5.00	1.00
Conceded per game	0.00	1.00
Match goals	5.00	2.00	3.21
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	0%	62%
Over 3.5	100%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	100%	42%
Clean sheets	100%	0%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	1	1

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Inter	Udinese	League
Corners
Corners won	6.00	5.00
Corners conceded	5.00	1.00
Match total	11.00	6.00	8.19
Over 8.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Over 9.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Over 10.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	0.00	3.00
Opponent cards	0.00	2.00
Match total	0.00	5.00	3.81
Over 3.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1

	Inter	Udinese	League
Corners
Corners won	4.50	4.00
Corners conceded	4.40	5.56
Match total	8.90	9.56	8.19
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	56% 5/9
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	56% 5/9
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	2.30	2.10
Opponent cards	2.00	1.70
Match total	4.30	3.80	3.81
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Matteo Marchetti Italy · 43 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.93league 3.72

Red cards0.16league 0.11

Cards 5+44%league 39%

Fouls25.9league 25.4

Penalties0.23league 0.11

Home wins44%league 39%

Inter7 with this referee

Record6-0-1 Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.9 Pens for · against2 · 0

W30 Oct 24A · Empoli3–01
W30 Aug 24H · Atalanta4–00
L4 May 24A · Sassuolo0–11
W21 Oct 23A · Torino3–02
W3 Sep 23H · Fiorentina4–01

Udinese7 with this referee

Record1-3-3 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.7 Pens for · against0 · 3

L28 Apr 23A · Lecce0–12
D26 Feb 23H · Spezia2–22
L7 Jan 23A · Juventus0–12
L23 Oct 22H · Torino1–22
W16 Apr 22H · Empoli4–11

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.