Istanbul Basaksehir vs Alanyaspor – 21 Sep 2025

Süper Lig Gameweek 6 Sun, Sep 21 · 15:00 Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, İstanbul

Istanbul Basaksehir 11th · 5 pts · 4 played DDLW

1–1Full time

Alanyaspor 7th · 8 pts · 5 played DLWWD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Istanbul Basaksehir were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on Istanbul Basaksehir. Istanbul Basaksehir had 3.9 days of rest, Alanyaspor 3.9 and had to travel 563 km.

Away travel563 kmRest days3.9 · 3.9Matches / 14d2 · 2

Istanbul Basaksehir44%

Draw27%

Alanyaspor29%

Expected goals 1.52 – 1.20

Istanbul Basaksehir44%

Draw27%

Alanyaspor29%

Expected goals 1.52 – 1.18

Istanbul Basaksehir45%

Draw27%

Alanyaspor28%

Expected goals 1.54 – 1.17

Istanbul Basaksehir37%

Draw27%

Alanyaspor36%

Expected goals 1.36 – 1.35

Istanbul Basaksehir43%

Draw27%

Alanyaspor30%

Expected goals 1.50 – 1.21

Over 2.5 51% Both score 55% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (İstanbul)

No weather data yet

Referee · TürkiyeAdnan Deniz Kayatepe

Cards per match 3.7
Penalties per match 0.67
Matches 3

Team strength

Istanbul Basaksehir

Alanyaspor

26 L90 StrengthIn forecast 26

36 Current StrengthIn forecast 24

32 AttackIn forecast 18

34 DefenceIn forecast 24

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Istanbul Basaksehir

Attack—

Defense risk—

Alanyaspor

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Istanbul Basaksehir

Alanyaspor

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

0.75 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

0.61 xGVia Att/Def 1.00

0.82 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.56

+0.39 Goals minus xGContext +0.40

75% Scored inContext 80%

50% Clean sheetsContext 40%

9.50 ShotsContext 8.00

3.25 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.20

34% On target shareContext 28%

6.25 Shots in the boxContext 5.00

64% Box shareContext 64%

11% ConversionContext 18%

3.00 OffsidesContext 2.33

11.75 Shots allowedContext 11.40

3.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.20

3.50 BlocksContext 3.67

2.25 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

75% Save rateContext 71%

51% PossessionIn forecast 41%

396 PassesContext 353

330 Accurate passesContext 283

83% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.88 Team ratingContext 6.80

13.75 FoulsContext 13.20

11.50 Fouls sufferedContext 15.00

2.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 4 and 5 games

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.80

0.61 xGVia Att/Def 1.03

0.82 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.15

+0.89 Goals minus xGContext +0.37

90% Scored inContext 90%

40% Clean sheetsContext 40%

10.11 ShotsContext 9.60

3.44 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.10

34% On target shareContext 32%

7.33 Shots in the boxContext 6.20

70% Box shareContext 64%

15% ConversionContext 15%

2.50 OffsidesContext 2.00

12.78 Shots allowedContext 10.50

3.89 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.11

3.33 BlocksContext 3.14

2.78 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.11

71% Save rateContext 76%

55% PossessionIn forecast 46%

434 PassesContext 400

364 Accurate passesContext 335

84% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.94 Team ratingContext 6.97

11.89 FoulsContext 12.10

13.00 Fouls sufferedContext 14.40

2.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Istanbul Basaksehir

Rest3.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Alanyaspor

Rest3.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel563 km1,433 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Istanbul Basaksehir	Alanyaspor
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3.9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 17 Sep	3.9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 17 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	563 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	1,433 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	7	5.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Istanbul Basaksehir Confirmed XI

4-1-4-1

16M. Şengezer(G)

21C. Opéri 3J. Opoku 27O. Ba 36F. Ebosele

2B. Özdemir

77I. Brnić 13Miguel Crespo 8O. Kemen 7Y. Sarı

14E. Shomurodov

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Alanyaspor Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1M. Taşkıran(G)

5F. Aliti 3Nuno Lima 30Bruno Viana

11Ruan 58Maestro 42G. Makouta 8Enes Keskin

14I. Hagi 27Ibrahim Kaya

22Uchenna Ogundu

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Istanbul Basaksehir Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Alanyaspor Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Istanbul Basaksehir-1.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Alanyaspor+0.9 pp

Home / Away this season

Istanbul Basaksehir · Home 1.00points per game · 2 home games

W-D-L: 0-2-0
Scored: 0.50
Conceded: 0.50

Alanyaspor · Away 1.33points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 1-1-1
Scored: 1.67
Conceded: 1.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

Opponent	Istanbul Basaksehir	Alanyaspor
Besiktas	L 1–2 A	W 2–0 H
Eyüpspor	D 0–0 H	L 1–2 A
Points	1 of 6 · 0.50 per game	3 of 6 · 1.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

2 Istanbul Basaksehir wins0 draws2 Alanyaspor wins

Goals per game2.75 – 2.75 Over 2.575% Both scored75% Clean sheets0% · 25%

25 Jan 2025Alanyaspor5–4Istanbul Basaksehir
18 Aug 2024Istanbul Basaksehir4–2Alanyaspor
13 Jan 2024Istanbul Basaksehir3–2Alanyaspor
14 Aug 2023Alanyaspor2–0Istanbul Basaksehir

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Istanbul Basaksehir	Alanyaspor	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.40
Conceded per game	0.75	1.00
Match goals	1.75	2.40	2.72
Over 1.5	75%	80%
Over 2.5	25%	60%	51%
Over 3.5	0%	20%
Both teams scored	50%	60%	55%
Clean sheets	50%	40%
Failed to score	25%	20%
Games	4	5

	Istanbul Basaksehir	Alanyaspor	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.40
Conceded per game	0.75	1.00
Match goals	1.75	2.40	2.72
Over 1.5	75%	80%
Over 2.5	25%	60%	51%
Over 3.5	0%	20%
Both teams scored	50%	60%	55%
Clean sheets	50%	40%
Failed to score	25%	20%
Games	4	5

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Istanbul Basaksehir	Alanyaspor	League
Corners
Corners won	4.50	2.00
Corners conceded	5.75	4.00
Match total	10.25	6.00	9.31
Over 8.5	75% 3/4	0% 0/3
Over 9.5	50% 2/4	0% 0/3
Over 10.5	50% 2/4	0% 0/3
Cards
Cards	2.75	2.00
Opponent cards	2.75	2.80
Match total	5.50	4.80	4.69
Over 3.5	75% 3/4	60% 3/5
Over 4.5	50% 2/4	40% 2/5

	Istanbul Basaksehir	Alanyaspor	League
Corners
Corners won	4.22	3.00
Corners conceded	6.00	4.00
Match total	10.22	7.00	9.31
Over 8.5	78% 7/9	14% 1/7
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	14% 1/7
Over 10.5	56% 5/9	0% 0/7
Cards
Cards	2.60	1.80
Opponent cards	2.70	2.60
Match total	5.30	4.40	4.69
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Adnan Deniz Kayatepe Türkiye · 3 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.67league 4.50

Red cards0.00league 0.26

Cards 5+33%league 48%

Fouls20.0league 26.3

Penalties0.67league 0.26

Home wins33%league 39%

Istanbul Basaksehir

No previous matches with this referee.

Alanyaspor

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.